Prices climbing, do I buy now or keep waiting?

[CeruleanMoon]

The last time I bought a plane ticket was in 2005, so I feel completely out of my element here!

I've been told that the best time to buy is between 49 and 56 days before your flight. (I know these numbers sound crazy, but I figured that would translate to approx 2 months before leaving. My mother-in-law, who flies to and from Orlando frequently, assured me that that was indeed the best time to buy and that I shouldn't worry about it until then.) I've been watching the flights for months, and my flights were fluctuating slightly up and down but nothing major. Just within the last week, however, they have all stated jumping, sometimes daily, always getting higher and higher but not going down. I was planning on buying within the next two weeks. Now I'm getting stressed that I already missed my window and that I should have bought last week. I just don't know enough about this to gauge whether this is a "sign" or just another normal fluctuation. Should I buy now or keep waiting?

 

[FCDub]

There is unfortunately no way to know. Right below your thread is one from a poster who found amazing fares three weeks before leaving for vacation.

It's all a crap shoot.

 

[rwdavis2]

There is no way to predict air fare trends other than by: holiday travel is more expensive. What airline?

 

[1911]

I honestly believe the prices for flights reflect demand.when they are having problems selling the seats they drop the prices,when demand is high they raise them.
for me, I have found that the flights I have booked in the past never went down.I have booked them as far out as 5 months and tracked them up until our departure just to see what seats sell for. (we fly out of LAX)
I do know that tracking the prices can be frustrating as all get out.our first year traveling to the world every time I checked prices even within a few hours they changed.(I think there might be some sort of algorithm in play on pricing)

 

[CeruleanMoon]

There is no way to predict air fare trends other than by: holiday travel is more expensive. What airline?

I've been looking at Jetblue.

 

[rwdavis2]

I've been looking at Jetblue.

I doubt they will go down. But it's still a crap shoot. I buy when I'm OK with the price.

 

[shoreward]

This is the policy at JetBlue for refaring by customers:

http://help.jetblue.com/SRVS/CGI-BIN/webisapi.dll?New,Kb=askBlue,case=obj(404766)

If Southwest flies your route, you might want to check them out. Their policy allows the customer to cancel and rebook, if the fare goes down, without any change fees. Any difference in fare is banked for you to use (complete travel) within one year from date of original purchase. Also, Southwest allows two checked bags per customer, at no additional charge.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

I'm very uncomfortable with Southwest's policy of not seating children with their families and have crossed them off my list, no matter how cheap they are, unfortunately. So far, Jetblue has been the cheapest airline I could find that still has assigned seats. (They DO still have assigned seats, correct? Another thread implied they might not anymore.)

 

[DebbieB]

Any airline that has assigned seats you can end up being bounced out of them by aircraft changes, cancellations, etc. It's vary rare on SW for children not be seated with their family, especially if one is 6 or younger.

Looking at your counter, you are going late April. Is it a school vacation week? If yes, you likely already missed the lowest fares.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

The last week of April is school vacation week in my area, yes. Sounds like I should consider buying soon then.

 

[sponica]

Any airline that has assigned seats you can end up being bounced out of them by aircraft changes, cancellations, etc. It's vary rare on SW for children not be seated with their family, especially if one is 6 or younger.

I travel SW pretty extensively (they're the only non stop to Orlando from my regional airport 15 minutes away). I don't think I ever saw kids not sitting with their parents. I feel like (at least from my airport), the only 2 groups of people on a non stop to Orlando are families and golfers. You get on that flight accepting that you may need to switch seats, unless you really want to be responsible for someone else's kid....

 

[sam_gordon]

I'm very uncomfortable with Southwest's policy of not seating children with their families and have crossed them off my list, no matter how cheap they are, unfortunately. So far, Jetblue has been the cheapest airline I could find that still has assigned seats. (They DO still have assigned seats, correct? Another thread implied they might not anymore.)

That is not Southwest's policy. The only policy they have is "first come, first served". There are steps you can do to help get higher in line (EBCI, Family Boarding, Business Select, etc). But as PP said, even airlines with assigned seating can change seats on you. There is no guarantee of sitting next to your child on any airline until you push back from the gate.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

I've been to the websites of many airlines to try and understand each of their policies. SW does not assign seats to my understanding, and that is just leaving too much to chance for my tastes. I know that plenty of people are fine with it. Every airline will have extenuating circumstances when something unusual happens, but my interest is in finding an airline where my seat can be guaranteed as much as is reasonably possible.

So far, Southwest's prices for my itinerary haven't been better than what JetBlue can offer anyway.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

I travel SW pretty extensively (they're the only non stop to Orlando from my regional airport 15 minutes away). I don't think I ever saw kids not sitting with their parents. I feel like (at least from my airport), the only 2 groups of people on a non stop to Orlando are families and golfers. You get on that flight accepting that you may need to switch seats, unless you really want to be responsible for someone else's kid....

Thanks for sharing your experience. Perhaps if I were a more seasoned traveler my family might be more willing to try the "no assigned seats thing" but I guess I'm just not there yet.

 

[sponica]

Thanks for sharing your experience. Perhaps if I were a more seasoned traveler my family might be more willing to try the "no assigned seats thing" but I guess I'm just not there yet.

Honestly their boarding process is way more orderly than airlines WITH assigned seats. People just get in their positions A15-A30, A31-A60, B groups, then C groups. Airlines with assigned seats it's a mad dash (i understand that also has to do with the clamor for overhead bin space, but even in the days before you paid for luggage it would be a mad house).

But like you said, you're just not there yet. And if it doesn't make sense price wise, it's probably not enough to push you there.

I prefer to fly with SW, but my husband flies american for work and racked up a ton of miles that he cashed in for this trip. (I can't wait for the stink eye from the first class passengers when we board with our toddler)

 

[CeruleanMoon]

Honestly their boarding process is way more orderly than airlines WITH assigned seats. People just get in their positions A15-A30, A31-A60, B groups, then C groups. Airlines with assigned seats it's a mad dash (i understand that also has to do with the clamor for overhead bin space, but even in the days before you paid for luggage it would be a mad house).

But like you said, you're just not there yet. And if it doesn't make sense price wise, it's probably not enough to push you there.

I prefer to fly with SW, but my husband flies american for work and racked up a ton of miles that he cashed in for this trip. (I can't wait for the stink eye from the first class passengers when we board with our toddler)

It's encouraging to hear that you've had a positive experience. I just cringe at the thought of negotiating with strangers over seating, when I'd rather have the peace of mind knowing that my seats are secured. My son is 10 years old, but has only flown once and I'm not sure that he even remembers it well, so I know he'd be very uneasy if he were separated from us.

I'm going to try and pack light so hopefully we can fit all our carry-ons under the seats. (Guess I should check on the size limits for that!) In the past I used to just wait for the mad dash to be over and get on towards the end. I have no desire to sit in a cramped plane for longer than I need to anyway!

I was surprised that Southwest's rates weren't any better than Jetblue's when I checked, since I'd heard their fares were so good. Either way, it sounds like I'm going to end up buying soon in order to get our tickets before the prices get even higher.

 

[sam_gordon]

I'm going to try and pack light so hopefully we can fit all our carry-ons under the seats.

There's room for a backpack under the seats, but that's about it. Any kind of true "luggage" would go in the overhead bins.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

There's room for a backpack under the seats, but that's about it. Any kind of true "luggage" would go in the overhead bins.

A backpack is my plan. I'll have to check the dimensions to be sure.

 

[happymommy]

I'm very uncomfortable with Southwest's policy of not seating children with their families and have crossed them off my list, no matter how cheap they are, unfortunately. So far, Jetblue has been the cheapest airline I could find that still has assigned seats. (They DO still have assigned seats, correct? Another thread implied they might not anymore.)

I've been flying Southwest, with my kids, alone, since they were 2 years old and the youngest was 3 months old. We've always sat together.

For very young kids, 5 and under, families board together between A and B groups ("family boarding").

If a family boards later, often attendants will ask if folks are willing to move to help a parent sit with a child (I see this maybe once in 25 flights; I fly SW a lot).

Their policy of getting a credit if the fare goes down is straightforward and simple.

We live 30 minutes from BWI, so have a ton of nonstops to Orlando daily. Jetblue only has one, and the times suck (I don't want to depart to come home in the early morning from vacation).

I would not write off SW due to open seating.

 

[momtwoboys]

The last week of April is school vacation week in my area, yes. Sounds like I should consider buying soon then.

we travel every year April school vacation week and book flights on the day they are released, they have never come down in our area only up or sell out. Hope you can find something that you are OK with soon and book !!!