Covid And The Rest of Us

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Ack. My 84 yr young mom. (Her friend died of covid 2 week ago.)

Visited at my sisters Friday with her 9 ur old great grandson, my nephew and new fiancé.

Saturday she took her self to town. Sunday town. Monday she is going back to town. She needs choc chips in case anyone drops by!

And she wants to know if I want to come Thursday to visit in her garage with my DH and my -been at home -online college DS.

This will be our first Christmas without DD cause we won’t let her fly!

Aaarrrggghhhh

DH friend has covid, yesterday he sent me pics and it actually looks like shingles. I dropped supplies at his door. I text him after I leave.
 
Canada halts flights from U.K. in response to new coronavirus strain (msn.com)
:confused3Turns out you're both kind of right (according to this article, at least). The UK variant has not been confirmed or disproven to be one of the variants already identified. But as for it being more dangerous - no, it has not been deemed so, in regards to outcomes, just that it's more highly transmissible.
I wonder if this is the same as the new strain in South Africa, that mainly hits younger people.
 
If you think that new mutation is not already here in the US, then you are poorly informed. This has been talked about for at least 3 months and it would explain the numbers we have as well.

UH, what??

Canada halts flights from U.K. in response to new coronavirus strain (msn.com)
:confused3Turns out you're both kind of right (according to this article, at least). The UK variant has not been confirmed or disproven to be one of the variants already identified. But as for it being more dangerous - no, it has not been deemed so, in regards to outcomes, just that it's more highly transmissible.
One could argue that if it’s more transmissible and the symptoms aren’t any different than the dominant strain, then this new variant is more deadly to population health, though not specifically individual health. If it’s more infectious, you’ll have more people getting sick, and more dying, statistically.
 
Here is good information on this new strain.

https://apnews.com/article/europe-e...south-africa-74ea2d47820b8dcac02f95ad9440f533
It has been circulating in England since September so I am sure it is already here in the US but we have so many infections on a daily that they are not sequenced. It would help to explain the major explosion of cases. In my county we went from being one of the best in terms of infections and positivity rates to being the worst in the states and I will be honest we have very good masking in the area. We began to have issues at the beginning of November so if this new strain is circulating it could explain the raise in numbers.
 
https://www.thejournal.ie/vaccine-coronavirus-latest-5276009-Dec2020/
The Covid 19 vaccine developed by Pfizer/BioNTech has been recommended for approval for use in the European Union, paving the way for people in Ireland to begin receiving the vaccine.

The decision was announced by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) at a press conference this afternoon.

Vaccine taskforce chief, Professor Brian MacCraith, said that following the approval it is expected to take 7-10 days for the first doses of Ireland’s allocated 2.2 million Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines to be delivered.
 
UH, what??


One could argue that if it’s more transmissible and the symptoms aren’t any different than the dominant strain, then this new variant is more deadly to population health, though not specifically individual health. If it’s more infectious, you’ll have more people getting sick, and more dying, statistically.
Statistically, that's not correct. Yes - exponentially more people are being infected but the percentage of them that are dying is way down. Let's take Ontario for example. At August 20, there had been 41,179 cases diagnosed (since mid-March) and 2,796 deaths, equaling a 6.78% mortality rate. As of today, there have been 155,930 cases diagnosed cumulatively and total deaths have risen to 4,150 for a current mortality rate of 2.66%.
 
Does anyone know what the whole "70%" more infectous means? I mean doesnt Covid already seem to spread like wildfire... 70% more rate seems crazy???? Does this variant, literally hang in the air for days and zoom down into the nostrils of any walker bys???
 
Statistically, that's not correct. Yes - exponentially more people are being infected but the percentage of them that are dying is way down. Let's take Ontario for example. At August 20, there had been 41,179 cases diagnosed (since mid-March) and 2,796 deaths, equaling a 6.78% mortality rate. As of today, there have been 155,930 cases diagnosed cumulatively and total deaths have risen to 4,150 for a current mortality rate of 2.66%.

🤦‍♂️ Not this again. You can’t compare both new cases and deaths at the same two points in time.
 
🤦‍♂️ Not this again. You can’t compare both new cases and deaths at the same two points in time.
Those numbers are cumulative cases to each of the dates and cumulative deaths. The mortality rate as a percentage, at two snapshots in time, has not increased, in fact it has been diluted by the greatly increased number of cases diagnosed. Smack your head all you want, but your assertion I was replying to was flawed.
 
If you’re trying to show cumulative cases, you also need to show moving averages. And that still needs to take into account the lag.
 
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IMO part of the reason cases are rising like they are is everybody is so focused on survival rate and see 99%. A lot of has this thought that since I most likely won't die from Covid they take risks. What about the after affects? Nobody ever thinks about that.
 
Does anyone know what the whole "70%" more infectous means? I mean doesnt Covid already seem to spread like wildfire... 70% more rate seems crazy???? Does this variant, literally hang in the air for days and zoom down into the nostrils of any walker bys???
Percentage increases are often hard to visualise.
If it was 100% more infectious then that would make it twice as infectious.
So, at 70% more infectious it is less than twice as infectious.
Worse? Certainly but not "crazy" worse.

ford family
 
IMO part of the reason cases are rising like they are is everybody is so focused on survival rate and see 99%. A lot of has this thought that since I most likely won't die from Covid they take risks. What about the after affects? Nobody ever thinks about that.
Where have you been? Everybody is focused on survival rate? I'm positive there have been enough of us that haven't even spoken about it. And respectfully please don't start with the taking risks thing. You were one clamoring to go to theme parks including your local one. That is a huge risk by your own prior words. You kept telling us to go to our local parks to support it. It's likely some of those very people you encouraged to go thought about the survival rate but now it's a moment to chastise them? I realize that people have shifted their opinions over the course of this pandemic, I know I have at times as well and it's perfectly fine to do so especially as knowledge has been gained. But we should keep in mind that when we go about tsking others.
 
Percentage increases are often hard to visualise.
If it was 100% more infectious then that would make it twice as infectious.
So, at 70% more infectious it is less than twice as infectious.
Worse? Certainly but not "crazy" worse.

ford family

Everyone has their own perspective.

But, I would certainly say 70% more infectious is crazy. Think about 70% more new cases per day, 70% more hospitalizations per day (actually, in some places, hospitalizations aren’t going up because there’s no room to admit additional patients. You just get sent home with an oxygen tank and pain meds, and told to come back if it gets worse), 70% more deaths. That is really bad.

U.K. didn’t get isolated for no reason.
 
Where have you been? Everybody is focused on survival rate? I'm positive there have been enough of us that haven't even spoken about it. And respectfully please don't start with the taking risks thing. You were one clamoring to go to theme parks including your local one. That is a huge risk by your own prior words. You kept telling us to go to our local parks to support it. It's likely some of those very people you encouraged to go thought about the survival rate but now it's a moment to chastise them? I realize that people have shifted their opinions over the course of this pandemic, I know I have at times as well and it's perfectly fine to do so especially as knowledge has been gained. But we should keep in mind that when we go about tsking others.
I'm not trying to chastise anybody. I'm just trying to give a reason for the high cases. In the summer cases weren't that bad in many places so going to your local park wasn't a bad idea.
 
https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...-covid-19-cases-confirmed-today-39889062.html
PEOPLE who have been socialising in pubs, restaurants and each other's homes need to "think long and hard" about seeing vulnerable relatives over Christmas, Minister Simon Harris has warned.

This comes as there are 727 more Covid-19 cases in the Republic of Ireland, the Department of Health confirmed today.

That brings the total number of cases in the state to 80,267.

No further deaths were confirmed, with the total number of fatalities from the virus in Ireland staying at 2,158.

Minister Harris’ remarks come as Government prepares to tighten Covid-19 restrictions on the hospitality industry again as the number of cases of the virus grows.

Both Mr Harris and Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe defended the Government's decision to ease restrictions for the festive period after the country's second lock-down.

Mr Harris argued that while the restrictions are being tightened there is hope as the Covid-19 vaccine is due to start being administered by the end of the year.

He said the situation with the virus - including the growth of a new strain in the UK is "deadly serious".

He said "We need to look at our contacts. We need to decide how we're going to have a meaningful and safe Christmas...

"If you've been in pubs and restaurants, having people around to the house, having a lot of social contact you need to think long and hard about whether you want to come into contact with a vulnerable relative over the Christmas period."

He said Christmas plans should be adapted to make them as safe as possible and urged people to follow the public health advice: "Because... as much as we want to see family and friends - none of us want make each other sick."

Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said; “Our current disease trends are gravely concerning. The situation has deteriorated rapidly in recent days. A total of 3,837 cases have been notified in the past 7 days. The five day rolling average has increased from 339 on 17th December to 616 on 21st December, an 82% increase. It is now as important as it was back in March to limit your contacts and protect your loved ones.”

Mr Donohoe said the Government is "deeply aware" of the impact of restrictions on the hospitality sector which employs tens of thousands of people.

He said: "What we're looking to do is get the balance right between those concerns and public health.

"Tomorrow at the latest decisions will be made that will be communicated to the country about how that and other sectors may and will need to change for the rest of this year and potentially beyond."

Mr Harris said: "There's no government in the world who wants to tell people that Christmas plans need to be considered...

"But not to do so would have really bad consequences. So it's the right and proper thing for the Taoiseach and Cabinet to do."

Asked if Covid-19 restrictions were lifted too soon earlier this month, Mr Donohoe replied that the virus was being suppressed at the time.

He said: "What we are now finding is the situation has changed. And just as the government made a decision there a number of weeks ago that I believed was the right decision at that point in time, because of how quickly circumstances change we do always have to decide whether those decisions are still appropriate and whether they're conducive to protecting the health of our country… As the disease evolves in front of our eyes... the Government has to be able to change".

Mr Harris was asked about Nphet's advice at the time not to open up both hospitality and household visits.

He argued that the Government had been more conservative than Nphet which he said suggested opening up household visits earlier in December, for much longer and allowing more households to mix.

He also said the new strain of the virus wasn't being discussed at the time.

Mr Harris said there are no plans to alter the school calendar in January in the event of a surge in the virus.

He said: "What I'd much rather be doing today is trying to avoid the January surge. We can't allow ourselves to get into this mindset that the future is inevitable...

"We should be asking ourselves what can we do today to stop it happening".

Mr Harris said that the possible beginning of the roll-out of vaccines is "incredible" and for the first time people will be getting inoculated while restrictions are being put in place.

"What we need to do, quite frankly, quite bluntly is make sure everyone is alive to get the vaccine.

"That's the job, keep people alive, so that we can get rid of this."
 
I'm not trying to chastise anybody. I'm just trying to give a reason for the high cases. In the summer cases weren't that bad in many places so going to your local park wasn't a bad idea.
But the reasoning would have been the same no? Because from what you said nobody considers the long-term effects. Going to a theme park is always risky according to many naysayers for the parks being open, same with dining out. So if you're choosing to engage in those activities according to your comments it's because you're focused on the survival rate.

Most of the survival talk I see is only here on the DIS. IRL it's much more simply the mental toll to stay constantly aware. Your body is only designed to stay in a constant state of fear and hyperawareness for so long. I know a few here and there IRL who do spout the survival rate but those people were extreme in their thinking long before this pandemic was a thing (that's NOT meant to be representative of those here on the DIS who have discussed the survival rate just simply the few I know).

So many more are just simply tired. I'm still a lot more aware than my husband but between concern over his power plant contract not being signed, to then being signed, to then dealing with people from 3 different countries plus the pressures of getting things done his COVID protocols dropped a bit and he's had a constant battle with wanting to see his family. He still washes his hands just like I do but he doesn't use hand sanitizer as much as I do but I in turn don't use hand sanitizer quite as much as I used to. We are both excellent about masks in public though, that is something that while we don't like it it has become second nature though we'll both be happy when we are given the all clear to not wear them whenever that day comes.

But given that you're in a different country where you had much more strict restrictions perhaps in your neck of the woods it's different. I just wouldn't take the DIS to be representative of everyone.
 
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