A serious discussion on future 'guestimates' of MF's..

Pluto777

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 10, 2017
This is a topic I am really stuck on, and can never seem to find a good answer to; the question of peoples BEST estimates for future Maintenance fees at all WDW resorts. I think MF's are not given enough consideration by most purchasers of DVC and I for one would like to know what people think based on some type of logic for what future MF's are most LIKELY to be at each of the resorts. For example, what ARE based on the size, shape, number of units, shape of building(s), future likely renovations, lawn and grounds care etc the MOST likely increases we will see on: BLT, PVB, CCV, BRV, AKV, SSR, OKW, GFV, BWV and BCV? Any input appreciated, thanks in advance!
 
3% to 5% increase yearly depending on the county assessor and damage due to fire or storm which could increase dues even more and/or cause a special assessment like what has happened at HH and VB.

:earsboy: Bill

 
This is a topic I am really stuck on, and can never seem to find a good answer to; the question of peoples BEST estimates for future Maintenance fees at all WDW resorts. I think MF's are not given enough consideration by most purchasers of DVC and I for one would like to know what people think based on some type of logic for what future MF's are most LIKELY to be at each of the resorts. For example, what ARE based on the size, shape, number of units, shape of building(s), future likely renovations, lawn and grounds care etc the MOST likely increases we will see on: BLT, PVB, CCV, BRV, AKV, SSR, OKW, GFV, BWV and BCV? Any input appreciated, thanks in advance!

I agree. It doesn't seem like people really understand how much a 3% annual increase is after 40 years. That $6.55/pt maintenance seems reasonable now, but in 40 years it becomes $21.37. Yikes! On a 200 point contract, you're talking over $4k per year in just MF.

This is what has always ultimately kept me from joining DVC. Looking at the total upfront costs (excluding park tickets, airline tickets, food during trips, and all the other stuff you buy on vacation) over the life of the contract, it's just way too much money.
 


I agree. It doesn't seem like people really understand how much a 3% annual increase is after 40 years. That $6.55/pt maintenance seems reasonable now, but in 40 years it becomes $21.37. Yikes! On a 200 point contract, you're talking over $4k per year in just MF.
Yeah but at least that's not in today's money.
 
This is what has always ultimately kept me from joining DVC. Looking at the total upfront costs (excluding park tickets, airline tickets, food during trips, and all the other stuff you buy on vacation) over the life of the contract, it's just way too much money.

Hmm. We’ve owned since ‘09 and haven’t felt like the dues’ price increases have been so difficult to manage. We’re glad to have owned and to have the massive benefit of the villas for the total-so-far prices we’ve paid. We had trips we NEVER would have had without it.

No, it's worse. A 3% annual increase means that prices will double every 20 years. How often have salaries kept pace with inflation?

You have seen the costs of Disney tickets and APs over the last 10 years, yes?
 


Salaries have out paced inflation for the last 20 years

Here is a link of historical salary in current dollars (adjusted for inflation). It shows salaries are higher today, including inflation than they were 20 years ago.

http://www.multpl.com/us-average-real-income

The issue isn't if maintenance fees follow inflation. MF's, park tickets, food, hotel rooms, should all follow inflation to some degree. The question should be IMO will MF's out pace inflation and by how much?
 
No, it's worse. A 3% annual increase means that prices will double every 20 years. How often have salaries kept pace with inflation?
I think they have kept up or exceeded it, personally I make AT LEAST 3 percent more every year.
 
Salaries have out paced inflation for the last 20 years

Here is a link of historical salary in current dollars (adjusted for inflation). It shows salaries are higher today, including inflation than they were 20 years ago.

http://www.multpl.com/us-average-real-income

The issue isn't if maintenance fees follow inflation. MF's, park tickets, food, hotel rooms, should all follow inflation to some degree. The question should be IMO will MF's out pace inflation and by how much?
Good point - I think this is THE question to focus on: Will MF's rise faster or slower than cash prices for all WDW resorts over the future decades?
 
Also, what about the idea that certain resorts will tend to have higher MF's (maybe AKV? with its large size and wild animals to maintain vs it's size?) or BLT with the fact that it is a smaller amount of land to maintain than most (it's a tower)? Anyone have thoughts on estimates based on size, shape and theme of resorts at WDW? i am excluding any properties OUTSIDE WDW please (VB, HH) as they clearly have different MF issues than the ones inside 'the world'
 
My original dues at OKW were a bit over $3. Now they are almost $7 twenty years later. I think as resorts get older and they want to do bigger renovations, they raise the dues more than 3% and closer to 5 or 6%. I think they can actually raise them up to 15% each year.
 
I agree. It doesn't seem like people really understand how much a 3% annual increase is after 40 years. That $6.55/pt maintenance seems reasonable now, but in 40 years it becomes $21.37. Yikes! On a 200 point contract, you're talking over $4k per year in just MF.

This is what has always ultimately kept me from joining DVC. Looking at the total upfront costs (excluding park tickets, airline tickets, food during trips, and all the other stuff you buy on vacation) over the life of the contract, it's just way too much money.

Have you done the math on what a on-site deluxe will cost in 40-50 years? I can tell you the average rate of a Disney Deluxe in 4-5 decades would make you sick if your worried about a 3% compounding rate on MF’s.
 
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Good point - I think this is THE question to focus on: Will MF's rise faster or slower than cash prices for all WDW resorts over the future decades?

I think you hit the head on the nail here. I think MF’s will be lower, not much, but lower than cash prices for WDW resorts. Plus you have taxes on cash stays too, between 12.5-13.5%.
 
I think you hit the head on the nail here. I think MF’s will be lower, not much, but lower than cash prices for WDW resorts. Plus you have taxes on cash stays too, between 12.5-13.5%.
I assume that for comparison, we are counting the FULL price paid oop for cash stays - taxes etc all included..
 
Again I wonder if anyone has thoughts on the likely increases on the WDW DVC resorts on a 'resort by resort' basis. I exclude beachside DVC due to hurricane, storm surge insurance... Anyone think BLT is better off because it is in a smaller amount of space? Or do you think that the key to having lower future MF's is based on number of units at the biggest sized DVC resorts?
 
Again I wonder if anyone has thoughts on the likely increases on the WDW DVC resorts on a 'resort by resort' basis. I exclude beachside DVC due to hurricane, storm surge insurance... Anyone think BLT is better off because it is in a smaller amount of space? Or do you think that the key to having lower future MF's is based on number of units at the biggest sized DVC resorts?

I doubt BLTs compact wise will keep it's MFs in check too much compared to others. There is still an equal ratio of rooms/owner to maintain, and a large portion of MFs are based on maintenance and upkeep costs. Property taxes are based on the value of the land, not just it's size, and a huge building right next to the Magic Kingdom is going to be assessed at a high value. As a BLT owner, I hope I'm wrong though...
 

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