Based on Silver AP and Current Situation

lynzi2004

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 3, 2016
Based on the current situation of the Silver APs blackouts being lifted and the rise in crowds, I am unsure what to do with my December trip. I currently have a short trip scheduled Dec 9-13 (Wed-Sun) but I could move that to Dec 18-23 (Sat-Wed). The AP blackouts go into effect on Dec 18. I’m wondering with the current dynamics and Disney being mostly locals right now if going when those blackouts are in effect would actually be better?
My sister is there now and has seen the crowds jump first hand over the weekend, she is hoping the next few days will be better as the locals are back at work. When she checked into CBR, the CM told her their occupancy had jumped from 47% to 85% just in the last 2 days! I’m sure as more people get comfortable with travel crowds will rise anyway, but I’m particularly interested in what people think about the local AP blackout periods and if those might come into play more??
 
I really don’t think anyone knows especially how fast stuff has been changing. Purely anecdotal but we just stayed a week at WDW and we’re from out of state, drove from SC. We met several families who flew in from out of state too. I think there are exceptions and while
I suspect many visitors contributing to higher that post covid crowds over this last weekend have been locals, I don’t think anyone knows what Disney will look like come December with crowds, policies, procedures etc.

It may be smart to move dates if you can but it may not be necessary with as often as things have changed.
 
We were at MK on Saturday, and it was PACKED. We had been there earlier in the week and it wasn't busy at all. Purely anecdotal, but a vast majority of the guests there seemed to be locals visiting for the first time since the AP restriction had lifted. The lines at the ticket booths at the TTC were also very long, which surprised us. Local friends were at the MK on Sunday and had the complete opposite experience as we did. It seemed to be much more akin to our MK day earlier in the week. After the MK on Saturday, we planned to eat dinner at the resort, but everything was closed. I ended up doing curbside pick up at one of the chain restaurants on 192, and the restaurants/hotels I drove by were empty for a Saturday night. I think there will be pockets of time/days (especially weekends) where things will be busier with local travelers, but I think overall it will still remain fairly uncrowded.
 
I really don’t think anyone knows especially how fast stuff has been changing. Purely anecdotal but we just stayed a week at WDW and we’re from out of state, drove from SC. We met several families who flew in from out of state too. I think there are exceptions and while
I suspect many visitors contributing to higher that post covid crowds over this last weekend have been locals, I don’t think anyone knows what Disney will look like come December with crowds, policies, procedures etc.

It may be smart to move dates if you can but it may not be necessary with as often as things have changed.
Your anecdote holds true for many of us. We stayed a week in July, flew in from Utah. I do think passholders and locals still make up most of the crowds, but there are still some tourists coming in.
 


The thing we don’t know for sure is whether there have been any changes to the crowd limits Disney put in place when they reopened. Are the limits the same, but now more people feel comfortable going to the parks? If so, the blackouts going away aren’t causing the problem. Those Silver guests could have booked their park passes the first day any Passholders were allowed to, and it could explain why availability for passholders was the first to fill.

However, it is equally as likely that they increased AP capacity on the sly because they knew the blackouts were ending, and those increased AP park passes weren’t reallocated from the other categories. This would result in an overall increase in crowds above what was originally set.

Unfortunately, without knowing which scenario is correct, there’s no way to know if altering your dates will make crowds larger or smaller for your dates. I do think if you can arrange your dates to include as many weekdays and as few weekend days as possible, that would increase your shot at lower crowds.
 
Dec 18 to 23 is getting close to Christmas, plus you are starting on a weekend, then right into Christmas week.
 

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