My response was only related to the blue card benefits and APs,
If one wants to stay at new resorts, then the Resale vs, direct point is moot, no matter the savings.
But that's the point... Giving up 1 "value" to get another "value" isn't truly a savings... or it's simply complicated.
From a purely cost-savings scenario.... one is best off simply staying off property (putting aside the possibility of forgoing Disney altogether).
Staying on property... I haven't done the math... I suppose stretched over enough years, DVC *might* theoretically be cheaper than value resorts... though for any practical duration of time, and thinking of lost opportunity, value is going to be cheaper than DVC...
But DVC brings value you don't get from a value level resort. A higher level of accommodation... typically in a better location.
Though again... if you're truly looking for an equivalent of a deluxe resort in terms of location and amenities, then you're talking about GFV, BLT, etc.... where OKW and SSR don't really reach that deluxe level in location and amenities. Then buying direct vs resale, more trade offs. And the strategy of buying half-direct and half-resale, means getting some of the benefits but losing others.
Some of these things are easy to assign dollar values too -- Pretty easy to calculate the cost of a ticket. Other things are hard to assign a dollar value too -- like the prospect of being able to stay in a new currently unknown DVC in the year 2038 versus the the "old" existing properties. Even other things are simply unknown -- such as even that AP discount, which Disney could simply revoke at any time.
A lot of people go through a lot of machinations to claim something is a "savings" or a "good investment."
In the end, you get what you pay for. DVC may "cost less" in the long term, but the trade-off is that I have to generally book those trips far in advance, I'm somewhat limiting my future options... You may indeed be "saving" with AP, but in return, having to space your trips by 11 months, having to commit far in advance to multiple trips, etc.
The choice of whether to buy DVC.. whether to buy direct or re-sale.. there is no easy mathematical equation of "savings"... it's more simply about whether it's going to provide the subjective and objective benefits that will make you happy.