Buying DVC dilemma

I think you buy at BCV and BWV when it isn't an investment...which it shouldn't be. We bought so we could vacation there with minimal additional cost for the next 25 years. I doubt I will be going to WDW in my nineties so the additional 50 years doesn't really appeal to us. However, if we ended up also buying at the Riviera we would do so because we also want to stay there, not because it is a better investment.

Right - and that's fine right now. (We just bought a small BWV contract too.) But what I'm saying is in 15 years, someone that's your age might think differently when the contract only has 10 years left on it - UNLESS it is significantly less money.
 
It will open in 2019 - and based on previous resorts will likely end in 2070 (roughly 50 years), versus the 2042 of BCV and BWV - so 28 more year shelf life. So amazing to think people pay $110-120 a point for BC versus probably $190 for Riviera when it opens at less than half the lifetime. But people want what they want. However, I still say in the next 10 years the value on BC and BW contracts will drop precipitously. It's easy now to say "Oh, 24 years is plenty of time." but when its 15 years, or 10 years or 5 years left - the value just won't be there. (And another reminder - in 24 years those BCV contract will be worth flat ZERO - while a Riviera contract will have 28 years left.)

It still will be a numbers game of comparing the cost of BWV/BCV to a room there for those who want to stay at those resorts. So even at 15 years or 10 years it's still going to have value - we just won't know what that is until we know what Disney is asking for the hotel rooms there.
 
It still will be a numbers game of comparing the cost of BWV/BCV to a room there for those who want to stay at those resorts. So even at 15 years or 10 years it's still going to have value - we just won't know what that is until we know what Disney is asking for the hotel rooms there.

And that won't necessarily free up seven month availability for non owners anyway. You might be able to buy BWV or BCV for cheaper towards the end of its life, but units will still be bought by those who want to stay there. And the units that aren't bought, Disney will own to sell for cash.

My own guess is that when the old resorts get to the point where they aren't worth that much on the resale market, Disney will start buying the contracts back. Then they will close off portions of the resorts during the last few years of membership - and pretty much gut and redo them - then resell the resorts as new. They might offer a discount to current home resort owners who want to continue their ownership, they might not. But if Disney has control of those rooms, or if they are bought - even at a huge discount - by people who still find value in staying at those resorts during the end of their lifespan, it won't make a difference to seven month availability. It may make a difference to where you buy now if you plan on owning for longer than the current contract life on the BWV/BCV contracts - or if you want to make sure the resale value is still in place when you sell to use the proceeds for your current toddlers college tuition.
 
It still will be a numbers game of comparing the cost of BWV/BCV to a room there for those who want to stay at those resorts. So even at 15 years or 10 years it's still going to have value - we just won't know what that is until we know what Disney is asking for the hotel rooms there.

Correct that it might have value versus a room there - but does it have value versus other comparable DVC units? Let's say that BWV contracts are still selling for $100 a point with 10 years left, and a Poly contract is going for $200 a point with 35 years left. That $10 / point versus $5.71 / point, a 43% premium on the BWV points. And it could be worse. In 2042 that BWV contract is worthless, while the Poly contract still has 25 years to go, meaning it probably STILL sells for $200 a point or more. So i one case I paid $20,000 for a 200 point contract and had nothing left, with the other I paid $40,000 and still might have $40,000 at the end.

Let me say this, if my BWV contract is still going for $100 a point in 2032 you might find me taking the money and running on that deal.
 


BTW, does anyone know how much Disney was asking for those 2057 extensions on OKW? (direct price obviously). I am just curious how it worked.
For the first few months it was $15 a point. Then it increased to $20 a point for the rest of the year. Final cost and current price was $25 a point. Not worth it for us. We turned it down. We'll be 89 and 92 in 2042. If you turned it down, you returned a document that they provided with your notarized signatures. They reimbursed OKW owners $10 on their dues for the cost of the notary.
 
For the first few months it was $15 a point. Then it increased to $20 a point for the rest of the year. Final cost and current price was $25 a point. Not worth it for us. We turned it down. We'll be 89 and 92 in 2042. If you turned it down, you returned a document that they provided with your notarized signatures. They reimbursed OKW owners $10 on their dues for the cost of the notary.
Has anyone been able to extend that had previously signed over the last 15 years? I did see a report of a couple of situations where they were able to extend very late but it appeared that in both cases the extension had not been declined, just ignored.
 
For the first few months it was $15 a point. Then it increased to $20 a point for the rest of the year. Final cost and current price was $25 a point. Not worth it for us. We turned it down. We'll be 89 and 92 in 2042. If you turned it down, you returned a document that they provided with your notarized signatures. They reimbursed OKW owners $10 on their dues for the cost of the notary.
So just so I understand. Using a 100 point example: for $1500-$2500 on a 100 point contract you COULD have extended OKW from 2042 until 2057? by the end of this month that means 2018-2042 is 24 years; 2018 -2057 is 39 years. If that example above was the case (especially at 15 a point) that sounds like a deal I would have taken! Of course hindsight is always 20/20... Anyone here get that offer and accept or decline? I'd be curious to understand your reasoning.
 


I saw a very interesting story once, may have been someone on here, who refused to return his paperwork about extending his OKW contract, saying he never agreed to engage when he bought it. This apparently was some sort of waiver or something if you didn't want to extend. His view was that it seemed DVD were strong arming on the matter.
Anyway, if I recall correctly, he reported that every time he checked in, he was bothered by DVD asking him to sign this document.
In the end he got his lawyer to send a threatening letter, then they left him alone.
 
So just so I understand. Using a 100 point example: for $1500-$2500 on a 100 point contract you COULD have extended OKW from 2042 until 2057? by the end of this month that means 2018-2042 is 24 years; 2018 -2057 is 39 years. If that example above was the case (especially at 15 a point) that sounds like a deal I would have taken! Of course hindsight is always 20/20... Anyone here get that offer and accept or decline? I'd be curious to understand your reasoning.
The thing you have to remember is that most members who were asked to extend only paid from $50 to $70 a point when they purchased OKW. And many were older like us. The extra 15 years just wasn't worth it then.
 
So just so I understand. Using a 100 point example: for $1500-$2500 on a 100 point contract you COULD have extended OKW from 2042 until 2057? by the end of this month that means 2018-2042 is 24 years; 2018 -2057 is 39 years. If that example above was the case (especially at 15 a point) that sounds like a deal I would have taken! Of course hindsight is always 20/20... Anyone here get that offer and accept or decline? I'd be curious to understand your reasoning.
The true value at the time was between $5 & $8 per point, $15 today would be more reasonable.

I saw a very interesting story once, may have been someone on here, who refused to return his paperwork about extending his OKW contract, saying he never agreed to engage when he bought it. This apparently was some sort of waiver or something if you didn't want to extend. His view was that it seemed DVD were strong arming on the matter.
Anyway, if I recall correctly, he reported that every time he checked in, he was bothered by DVD asking him to sign this document.
In the end he got his lawyer to send a threatening letter, then they left him alone.
It is my opinion that that member will have an extended contract without paying for it though they may continue to bother him as the end nears. Basically they extended the ground lease, the membership is tied to the ground lease and they threatened a special assessment which they don't legally or contractually have the right to do for this purpose IMO. I would have been that member had I still owned at OKW just on principle.
 
IMO if they can't plan close to 7 months out, they likely shouldn't buy in.
I see you said likely. I agree that DVC isn't for everyone but it works for me. Yes, I cannot plan out that far as I travel a lot for work, but that doesn't mean DVC is a bad choice for me. I live in California and go to WDW 2-3 times a year. Having my room pre-paid with a DVC discounted AP, is very cost-effective for me.
 
I see you said likely. I agree that DVC isn't for everyone but it works for me. Yes, I cannot plan out that far as I travel a lot for work, but that doesn't mean DVC is a bad choice for me. I live in California and go to WDW 2-3 times a year. Having my room pre-paid with a DVC discounted AP, is very cost-effective for me.
I know some own already, plan shorter periods and make it work but let me be more specific. IMO no one should buy DVC going forward if the routine plan is to consistently reserve well after the 7 month window. That's not the same as saying some can't make it work or one should sell if they are doing so though often DVC isn't going to work for them. It's just too risky to take the chance. The reason I said likely rather than an absolute is because there are some very special circumstances. Maybe one isn't a planner but owning they move more toward planning further out, maybe they expect their ability to plan to improve in a few years or they plan to use only for a portion of their stays so if they can't get one they can use for another. Likely the best one is where the pass discount alone makes sense for a smaller contract which is a limited group.
 
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I'd also add that if you plan to consistently book after 7 months, buying the majority of your points direct is a poor financial decision, and buying a new resort retail is not advised. Buy a good value resale like SSR, and if you want the pass discount, add on 25 direct. Having 1BR points helps a lot as well.

And be prepared for the trade-offs of buying DVC without the ability to plan far out.
 
Well this thread filled up with lots of good info and opinions.... So I got a good price on a 150pt VGF with double points, so now to
get through ROFR...
Good luck with that one and passing ROFR. If you bought it too low, DVC will surely snap it up.
 
The true value at the time was between $5 & $8 per point, $15 today would be more reasonable.

It is my opinion that that member will have an extended contract without paying for it though they may continue to bother him as the end nears. Basically they extended the ground lease, the membership is tied to the ground lease and they threatened a special assessment which they don't legally or contractually have the right to do for this purpose IMO. I would have been that member had I still owned at OKW just on principle.
$15 more for an extra 15 years is, in MY opinion, not just reasonable, but amazing, isn't it? If I understand what you're saying, thats just $1 for each extra year isn't it? Considering how prices have skyrocket just the last 8 months isn't that ridiculously cheap? My only regret buying my 2 contracts is that I didn't buy more sooner because the value has really shot up ; D
 

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