Disney at the Oscars 2018

Luxurious_Lumiere

Mouseketeer
Joined
Oct 6, 2017
Hello All!

I cover entertainment and focus on awards, and thought it would be a fun idea to discuss how Disney will do at this years' Oscar ceremony. Below are a list of Disney's films and where they could land in various races based on my own industry analysis. What are your favorite films from the company this year and are there any particular nominations you are crossing your fingers for?

(also: Im fairly new here and was unsure about the best category to list this post under. If you think it is better suited for a different area of the boards please let me know!)

2017 Disney Films and their Oscar Odds:
*updated list 1/2/18

BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
GOOD ODDS:
Costume Design
Production Design
Best Song ('Evermore')

ON THE BUBBLE:
Best Song ('How Does a Moment Last Forever')

LONG SHOT:
Sound Mixing
Original Score

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES
LONG SHOT:
Sound Editing

CARS 3
ON THE BUBBLE:
Animated Feature

COCO
GOOD ODDS:
Animated Feature
Best Song ('Remember Me')

ON THE BUBBLE:
Original Score
Sound Mixing

LONG SHOT:
Original Screenplay
Best Picture

SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING
*didn't make the Visual Effects shortlist. Oscar chances are basically dead*

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2
GOOD ODDS:
Makeup and Hairstyling

ON THE BUBBLE
Visual Effects

LONG SHOT:
Production Design
Sound Mixing

THOR: RAGNAROK
ON THE BUBBLE:
Sound Editing

LONG SHOT:
Production Design
Costume Design

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
GOOD ODDS:
Production Design
Original Score
Visual Effects
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

ON THE BUBBLE:
Costume Design

LONG SHOT:
Best Picture
Cinematography
Costume Design
Film Editing
Supporting Actor (Mark Hamill)
Supporting Actress (Carrie Fisher)
 
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I'm looking at what has a realistic chance for Oscar nominations and what is being campaigned by Disney. Oscar campaigns are multi million dollar affairs, and the Oscars have largely shied away from rewarding the types of big studio films Disney tends to make in their top categories. The only two actors receiving any proper Oscar campaign from Disney are Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher in the supporting categories for The Last Jedi.

As for Director, I suppose Lee Unkrich and Rian Johnson of Coco and Last Jedi respectively, have a (very very long) shot but they are not being predicted by any industry members. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) and Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) are considered locks for that category. And then you have Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri) and Luca Guadagnino (Call me by Your Name) as very strong candidates. Which leaves one spot open. Most pundits agree that it is being fought over by Steven Spielberg (The Post), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049), and Joe Wright (Darkest Hour). That's 5 major Oscar contenders fighting over 1 open slot and I dont think Unkrich or Johnson can move past them.

HOWEVER! If you are hoping for acting nominations from these movies, the Golden Globes might provide better results. The Globes split categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical, and Disney is campaigning for those spots. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 is shooting for Best Comedy/Musical and Best Comedy/Musical Actor (Chris Pratt), Beauty and the Beast is going for Best Comedy/Musical, Actress (Emma Watson) and Actor (Dan Stevens), and Spider-man is also has Tom Holland going for Best Comedy/Musical Actor. I think B&B has a real shot to score an Actress nom for Watson there, with an outside chance for Picture. And I think the Globes are a group of voters most likely to want to give a farewell nomination to Carrie Fisher for Star Wars (but Disney will have to screen it for them before their voting deadline. Its yet to be decided if they will do that).
 
Also fun Oscar fact: only 3 animated films have ever been nominated for Best Picture. and they're all Disney/Pixar films:
Beauty and the Beast (still the only animated movie to get a nom in a 5 nominee Best Picture lineup), Toy Story 3, and Up.

It's worth noting that none of the directors of these 3 films were nominated for Best Director, despite their films' BP nom. Which means Coco would have to truly blow up for Unkrich to be a contender for director.
 


Coco was just named Best Animated Film by the New York Film Critics Circle! Barring any drastic change in the race, I anticipate the film to march straight through awards season to the Oscar podium (Its biggest competition is arguably Loving Vincent, which does not have the campaign resources of Disney or mass appeal of Coco). The real question is how many other nominations can it rack up?

Best Song looks very likely, and Disney is continuing their recent strategy of only submitting one song for consideration so as not to risk vote splitting (which cost them wins for both Enchanted and Princess and the Frog). If the positive buzz continues for the film, I wouldn't count it out sneaking into Sound Mixing.
 
More good news for Coco! It has lead the Annie Award nominations with 13, followed close behind by The Breadwinner. Cars 3 also broke into their Best Animated Feature category. Normally the Annies arent a great precursor to the Animated field at the Oscars since the overlap of voters is relatively small and the Annies frequently go for more "mass appeal" popcorn films. But this is still great news for Coco and shows that Cars 3 can breakthrough with a large voting body.

Also: the Visual Effects branch of the Academy released their shortlist of 20 films. Included from the Mouse House: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Beauty and the Beast, Thor: Ragnarok, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. This branch will meet again to whittle this list down to 10 finalists. The visual effects teams behind the finalists will then compile a presentation, screened for branch members, that best displays the effects used in their respective film. And then we get our 5 nominees.

I'd say Star Wars: The Last Jedi is a lock for ultimately getting a nomination, but it will have to have something pretty remarkable to overcome War of the Planet of the Apes and Blade Runner 2049 for the win.
 
More updates from the awards circuit:

Coco has been nominated for 2 Golden Globe awards: Best Animated Feature and Best Song ('Remember Me'). At this point it is looking locked for Oscar nominations in those two categories. We will see if it can sneak into any other categories. Cars 3 is having a tougher time. It was snubbed, and the HFPA is a voting group it should have won over more easily than Oscar voters. But Ferdinand and Boss Baby scored nominations instead.

Alas, I am told the Hollywood Foreign Press did not see The Last Jedi in time and thus the film was completely shut out. I was really hoping this could be where Carrie Fisher might score a final posthumous nomination.

Surprisingly, Beauty and the Beast was also shut out, even for Best Song. But I hear Disney is doubling down efforts for 'Evermore' and it should have an easier time with Oscar voters (as opposed to HFPA who are more likely to vote for recognizable songwriters in their song category).
 


Happy new year from the awards circuit!

Updates on Disney's progress:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2 were both made the final shortlist for the Visual Effects category at the Oscars. They are joined by Alien: Covenant, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, Kong: Skull Island, Okja, The Shape of Water, Valerian, and War for the Planet of the Apes. These finalists will present excerpts of their films to the Visual Effects branch for consideration, and the branch will vote on who becomes the 5 Oscar nominees.

The eligible tunes for Best Song were unveiled. Coco has a leading contender with "Remember Me." Bizarrely, Disney is straying from its usual strategy of only submitting one song per film and has opted to submit both "Evermore" and "How Does a Moment Last Forever" from Beauty and the Beast (the second one is the Celine Dion number over the credits). I suspect "Evermore" will be the one to get nominated, but they are definitely risking vote splitting here.
 
Thanks for tracking all this. I know nobody's posting on this tread much, but I find it interesting to read.
 
Thanks @BrianL !

I wasn't sure if people were interested but it kept getting page views so I figured someone was reading! I just like being able to combine my work (awards coverage) with my Disney nerdom. =)

In other news, the ACE Eddie nominations for film editing were announced today. This is one of the important guild awards that can act as an Oscar precursor. The Eddie's have a great track record predicting the Film Editing Oscar b/c their voters have overlap with the editing branch of The Academy, and they split their kudos into two top categories: drama and comedy. So the five eventual Oscar nominees are usually found within the ten Eddie nominees. Unfortunately for Disney, The Last Jedi was not cited among the drama nominees at the Eddie's, which means netting the Film Editing Oscar nomination just got a whole lot harder. The Force Awakens was nominated in this category 2 years ago, but it showed up at the Eddies first. I think The Last Jedi will ultimately only get 3-5 nominations.

The Eddie's also nominated Coco for its Animated category (alongside Lego Batman and Despicable Me 3), as Pixar's film continues its march towards a seemingly inevitable Oscar win.
 
Beauty and the beast may snag a technical or two...

Coco is guaranteed at least the animated feature if not more...

Hollywood has moved on from
Lucasfilm and ILM...after basically inventing the category, they've gone 0-6 in visual effects. It's symptomatic of a bigger problem.

I almost choked when I saw carrie fisher as "best supporting actress"...I must say. I think not being able to read lines automatically disqualifies you...
 
Its been a busy few days!

On Sunday Coco claimed yet another Animated Feature prize from the Golden Globes. However, it lost Best Song to "This is Me" from the Greatest Showman. I'm starting to think Song is not a slam dunk for the film. Pasek and Paul are actively campaigning hard for their tune, and theyve been on a media blitz, sharing tons of videos of Keala Settle. "This is Me" is also a bit more anthemic, which usually helps. Itll be a close race I think (and thats without even bringing in Sufjan Stevens gorgeous "Mystery of Love," which is incorporated quite brilliantly in Call me by Your Name).

In guild/precursor news:

The Costume Designers guild announced nominations. They have 3 film categories (Contemporary, Period, and Sci-fi/Fantasy). Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran), The Last Jedi (Michael Kaplan), and Thor: Ragnarok (Mayes C. Rubeo) were all nominated in the sci-fi/fantasy category. Beauty and the Beast looks locked for a nomination (the Academy LOVES Durran). The other two Disney films will have a harder time with such a stacked category (other potential nominees include Phantom Thread, The Greatest Showman, Dunkirk, Murder on the Orient Express, Blade Runner, and The Shape of Water). But I think The Last Jedi could surprise to bump someone out of the lineup. Just think of how often you see that image of Leia peering over her cowl. It would be the Star Wars saga's first costume design nom since A New Hope.

The Cinema Audio Society also announced nominees. This is the guild for Sound mixers. They nominated Baby Driver, Dunkirk, The Last Jedi, Shape of Water, and Wonder Woman. Historically about 3-4 of the CAS nominees repeat at the Oscars in the sound mixing category. Dunkirk is far out front to win. Id say The Last Jedi and Baby Driver are fairly safe. Coco could end up taking Wonder Woman's slot if its strong enough (past Pixar films have turned up here, such as The Incredibles and Wall-E) but I think Blade Runner will ultimately get more love from the Academy and Star Wars will be the only Disney representative here.
 
Its Oscar nominations time! I've been busy writing all morning but wanted to come here and share with my fellow Disney nerds. In case you haven't looked at the nominations yet, here's how Disney fared this year:

Beauty and the Beast - 2 nominations
Costume Design (Jaqueline Durran)
Production Design (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)

Coco - 2 nominations
Animated Feature
Original Song - "Remember Me" (Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez)

Lou - 1 nomination
Animated Short Film (Pixar: David Mullins and Dana Murray)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 1 nomination
Visual Effects

Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- 4 nominations
Original Score (John Williams)
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects

Congrats to all the nominees!!


Quick takeaways:
It looks like Disney shot themselves in the foot by submitting two songs from Beauty and the Beast. "Evermore" should have been an easy nomination for industry legend Alan Menken. His spot was taken by Mary J. Blige's "Mighty River" from Mudbound.

If Guardians was only going to get 1 of its 2 potential nominees I thought for sure it would be Makeup/Hair-styling. Bizarrely, they put Victoria and Abdul in that category instead. Perhaps its because the makeup effects on the main cast is essentially unchanged from the first movie.

Coco looks like the only one of the Disney nominees that can win an award. Animated Feature is guaranteed. Original Song will be a fight to the finish.

Fun fact: John Williams now sits at a whopping 51 Academy Award nominations. He retains his status as the second most nominated person in Oscar history. The most nominated person? Walt Disney =)
 
@BrianL potentially. But I know a bunch of people who said that after the voter screenings, "Revolting Rhymes" was the funniest and overwhelming favorite. Of course, now that the nominees are decided, the entire Academy will be voting on who wins. So a popular company like Pixar with cultural cache can do well with a large group of voters. That being said, "Lou" has sort of flown under the radar this year. "Dear Basketball" has gotten much more buzz and press though, which matters since voters often don't pay close attention to this category. I think the winner will be one of those three movies. Hard to say at this point.
 

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