DVC for moderates and values?

I was told by a DVC rep at Magic Kingdom that the Riviera would be "super luxury." So since we have conflicting statements from a bartender and a salesman, I think we should check with a bus driver to determine the facts.

Rats. That may prove to be the nail in the coffin for us. We are planning to buy into DVC once Riviera goes online though there are a few factors to consider that will help us determine between Riviera and SSR. Don't get me wrong, the idea of moderate DVC's is intriguing but Riviera is not going to be moderate. I just hope "super luxury" is also an exaggeration. That would price us right out.
 
There are two ways they could launch moderate DVC resorts - (at least two ways)

1) THey could open moderate resorts as part of the overall DVC system, and just charge half the points (or so) for a stay. However, this would allow current DVC members to book them at 7 months to make their points go further, so they would be slammed at 7 months.

2) THey could have a closed system of moderate resorts, where moderate owners could not use their points at a deluxe, and vice versa. To make the distinction, they would have to create resorts without deluxe dining options, less amenities, etc.

Neither is likely in my opinion. The trend is to go more upscale, not less.
 
There are two ways they could launch moderate DVC resorts - (at least two ways)

1) THey could open moderate resorts as part of the overall DVC system, and just charge half the points (or so) for a stay. However, this would allow current DVC members to book them at 7 months to make their points go further, so they would be slammed at 7 months.

2) THey could have a closed system of moderate resorts, where moderate owners could not use their points at a deluxe, and vice versa. To make the distinction, they would have to create resorts without deluxe dining options, less amenities, etc.

Neither is likely in my opinion. The trend is to go more upscale, not less.
It’s not just the cost of the points that matters to DVC; it’s also the number of points avail to sell.

This is why cabins have been added to the last two resorts: to shove in another million points in the resort inventory.

In your example 1, DVC loses the number of points it could sell by a factor of half. In example 2, DVC would be selling points for less and leaving money on the table that way.

Profits = (#points x $points) - expenses. Reducing either equation in parentheses is a deal breaker for DVC.

I know you weren’t arguing those were likely but the opposite. I’m agreeing with you.

The idea that DVC would sell moderates is wishful thinking that is explicitly repudiated by Disney’s general and DVC’s specific current business model. Disney is in a current trend of maximizing dollars turned over to the mouse. Any executive scheming to half the profits of DVC by going all in on moderates wouldn’t last the board meeting where that idea was pitched.
 
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You could make the case for moderate DVC resorts if you could show that selling deluxe resorts was a failing model.

Sure. We’ll take reduced profits by reconfiguring our business model to moderates because that beats losing money trying to sell deluxe resorts.

Half a loaf is better than nothing.

Except. That’s just not the case. Business is booming.

Why sell half a loaf when you can’t build whole loafs hardly fast enough?

There is no economic incentive whatsoever for DVC to downscale. And if they did? Who’d ever pay $200/point again when $120 moderate points were avail direct? Who’d buy into a point chart with studios for 20pts/night when there’s one for 10pt/night?

A Moderate DVC wouldn’t just cannibalize Deluxe DVC; it’d destroy it as a business model.

Once DVC went moderate, they could never go back.
 


If they did values or moderates there would be the issue of what benefits those members would get. If it was full benefits, we'd buy 75 value points just to get the benefits since we didn't get 25 in time.
 
IMO it'll be a deluxe in a moderate location similar to SSR, OKW & AKV. While they could do a true moderate for less points, I doubt they will, they wouldn't make as much money and it creates logistical issues.
 
Keep in mind, value, moderate, and deluxe are not price categories. Disney views them as amenity categories. So by having table service and quick service locations, a feature pool with slide, and a gym, the new DVD will be considered a deluxe.
 


I hope the gondola system is a big hit with guests and that the Riviera becomes very popular! That will take some of the booking pressure off the BWV and possibly BCV. IMO, that would be a GOOD thing.

I also think that the restaurant and other amenities will make the Riviera a deluxe and that it will be priced accordingly - both in cost pp to buy in and in points per night to stay.
 
I hope the gondola system is a big hit with guests and that the Riviera becomes very popular!

I think it will be. Many people here underestimate how cool a gondola system is. I take a train not too different from a monorail every day to go to work, instead I associate a gondola system to holidays, fun trips to the mountains, something I don't ride every day. Gondoling (not a word) to a park will be the first attraction of the day.
 
IMO it'll be a deluxe in a moderate location similar to SSR, OKW & AKV. While they could do a true moderate for less points, I doubt they will, they wouldn't make as much money and it creates logistical issues.

I agree with your assessment of Riviera and really hope we are correct. It will be a deluxe resort but I'm hoping the pricing model will be more along the lines of AKV and CCV rather than BLT or GF. Time will tell.

I slightly disagree about the feasibility of a moderate DVC arm. It would create some logistical issues and such but I'm not sure those are impossible to overcome. The big benefit of it would be that it would appeal to a whole market that is priced out of the current DVC model. However, that said, why would they bother building something to attract that market when they can barely keep pace with demand for their current model.

I hope the gondola system is a big hit with guests and that the Riviera becomes very popular! That will take some of the booking pressure off the BWV and possibly BCV. IMO, that would be a GOOD thing.

I also think that the restaurant and other amenities will make the Riviera a deluxe and that it will be priced accordingly - both in cost pp to buy in and in points per night to stay.

I think the gondolas will be a hit with guests but I think it may take a bit for that to happen. Most people don't have any experience with them and don't really know what to make of them. People who have experienced them before, skiers and such for example, know what to expect and are more excited about it. All in all I am way more excited about the prospect of staying on the gondola line than I ever was about staying on the monorail loop. Don't have to wait for the gondola like you do the monorail.
 
I agree with your assessment of Riviera and really hope we are correct. It will be a deluxe resort but I'm hoping the pricing model will be more along the lines of AKV and CCV rather than BLT or GF. Time will tell.

I slightly disagree about the feasibility of a moderate DVC arm. It would create some logistical issues and such but I'm not sure those are impossible to overcome. The big benefit of it would be that it would appeal to a whole market that is priced out of the current DVC model. However, that said, why would they bother building something to attract that market when they can barely keep pace with demand for their current model.

I think the gondolas will be a hit with guests but I think it may take a bit for that to happen. Most people don't have any experience with them and don't really know what to make of them. People who have experienced them before, skiers and such for example, know what to expect and are more excited about it. All in all I am way more excited about the prospect of staying on the gondola line than I ever was about staying on the monorail loop. Don't have to wait for the gondola like you do the monorail.

As a snowboarder, I'm also excited about the gondola, but agree non-skiers/snowboarders will have to experience it to be convinced of its effectiveness. I do wonder how they will efficiently load wheelchairs and people with limited mobility. I think I read they can load those gondolas separately and then it joins in on the main line, so you don't have to continually stop everything.

Compared to the aging monorail, I think the gondola will be really efficient. But for that reason, I don't think they can do a point chart like AKV and CCV.
 
As a snowboarder, I'm also excited about the gondola, but agree non-skiers/snowboarders will have to experience it to be convinced of its effectiveness. I do wonder how they will efficiently load wheelchairs and people with limited mobility. I think I read they can load those gondolas separately and then it joins in on the main line, so you don't have to continually stop everything.

Compared to the aging monorail, I think the gondola will be really efficient. But for that reason, I don't think they can do a point chart like AKV and CCV.

The concept art made it look like a high speed model that comes off the track at the stations. If that is accurate it shouldn't be a problem to load strollers and ECV's and such. Especially since you don't have to worry about loading your skis and equipment and such on the outside and all that.

I do think I will like the gondola much better than the monorail but....it's still not the monorail. And you can walk to MK from BLT. You can't walk to any areas from Riviera. I think that may keep its price down. That and the gondola will be shared with two values and a moderate. The monorail is only for the 3 "most exclusive/flagship" resorts on property. I think the lower cache of sharing transportation with a couple of values may keep the price down a bit. Not to mention the gondola has to be WAY cheaper than maintaining the monorails.
 
I do think I will like the gondola much better than the monorail but....it's still not the monorail. And you can walk to MK from BLT. You can't walk to any areas from Riviera. I think that may keep its price down. That and the gondola will be shared with two values and a moderate. The monorail is only for the 3 "most exclusive/flagship" resorts on property. I think the lower cache of sharing transportation with a couple of values may keep the price down a bit.

Unfortunately, the "resort monorail" is open to anyone who wants to use it. If you happen to take the monorail any evening, you'll find it stuffed full of people, most of whom will get off at the TTC. So, I'm not sure if that's necessarily more exclusive than sharing the gondolas with "a couple of values".
 
And you can walk to MK from BLT. You can't walk to any areas from Riviera. I think that may keep its price down. That and the gondola will be shared with two values and a moderate. The monorail is only for the 3 "most exclusive/flagship" resorts on property. I think the lower cache of sharing transportation with a couple of values may keep the price down a bit. Not to mention the gondola has to be WAY cheaper than maintaining the monorails.

Yeah that's a good point about sharing transportation with values/moderates, but I'm guessing the prices of those hotels will go up from being on the gondola (and I think Disney intends of phasing our those distinctions anyway).

You can't walk anywhere from Riviera, but that's the same for GFV and technically Poly, but I guess you can walk to TTC which gives you a lot of transportation options. The monorail probably holds more prestige since it was the flagship transportation, but I don’t think that will necessarily be reflected in the point charts.
 
Yeah that's a good point about sharing transportation with values/moderates, but I'm guessing the prices of those hotels will go up from being on the gondola (and I think Disney intends of phasing our those distinctions anyway).

You can't walk anywhere from Riviera, but that's the same for GFV and technically Poly, but I guess you can walk to TTC which gives you a lot of transportation options. The monorail probably holds more prestige since it was the flagship transportation, but I don’t think that will necessarily be reflected in the point charts.

I'm sure the price for CBR, AoA and Pop will go up once the gondola comes on line but how by how much I don't know. It will be interesting to see.
 
Value or moderate DVC could only work if it were an entirely new section of ownership. Like, an entirely new DVC group separate from the original. Original DVC resorts not interchangeable with old DVC resorts. "

Depends on if you define "moderate" as the time of buy in, or points value of rooms.

As long as the cost per point is reasonably in line with historical costs per point ($200ish inflation adjusted) it would be fine.

Now, if disney decides to sell points tomorrow @ $75 a point, then allow these new owners to use the same 7 month rules for other resorts...there would be an issue.

But if disney follows the $200 a point buy in costs, but makes rooms available for say 5 points a night because the rooms are "moderate" in theme and amenities, there would be no issue. Current owners could still 7 month into the moderate if they are available, and new owners who only have 75 points could still book their moderate rooms at 11 months, or trade up to deluxe.
 
Depends on if you define "moderate" as the time of buy in, or points value of rooms.

As long as the cost per point is reasonably in line with historical costs per point ($200ish inflation adjusted) it would be fine.

Now, if disney decides to sell points tomorrow @ $75 a point, then allow these new owners to use the same 7 month rules for other resorts...there would be an issue.

But if disney follows the $200 a point buy in costs, but makes rooms available for say 5 points a night because the rooms are "moderate" in theme and amenities, there would be no issue. Current owners could still 7 month into the moderate if they are available, and new owners who only have 75 points could still book their moderate rooms at 11 months, or trade up to deluxe.
Except.

Imagine that you’re the DVC executive pitching this idea:

“Yes, I know BLT had 5.5 million points and we want to sell a similar sized Riviera with only 2 million points. Yes. I know that’s leaving almost half a billion with a B dollars on the table. But! Isn’t that a great plan!?”
 

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