Feeling guilt about the prospect of going

[TiggerBouncy]

More younger people are getting it, so the death rate is lower.. way, way LOWER.......and we are headed to HERD IMMUNITY.

Unfortunately, we are no where near Herd Immunity yet. For clarification, Herd Immunity means that enough of the population is carrying antibodies, that the chance of a contagious individual encountering someone who is not protected is low enough that the number of cases decreases over a short time to near-0.

The United States has 4.8 Million confirmed cases. Out of 328 Million, that's just around 1.3%. If we assume that for every 1 case we know about AS MANY AS 8 or 9 we don't know about were silently sick, that's STILL only 10% - and that's a VERY LIBERAL NUMBER.

COVID-19 has an estimated r0 of between 2-3. At that number, we would have to reach around 67% of the population possessing antibodies to effectively give the virus no where to go (or in other terms reach Herd Immunity where unprotected members of the herd are unlikely to encounter contagious members of the herd).

In other words, the virus would have to get 6-7 times worse than it is today at the BEST estimates before we would achieve herd immunity here in the United States.

 

[darby888]

Unfortunately, we are no where near Herd Immunity yet. For clarification, Herd Immunity means that enough of the population is carrying antibodies, that the chance of a contagious individual encountering someone who is not protected is low enough that the number of cases decreases over a short time to near-0.

The United States has 4.8 Million confirmed cases. Out of 328 Million, that's just around 1.3%. If we assume that for every 1 case we know about AS MANY AS 8 or 9 we don't know about were silently sick, that's STILL only 10% - and that's a VERY LIBERAL NUMBER.

COVID-19 has an estimated r0 of between 2-3. At that number, we would have to reach around 67% of the population possessing antibodies to effectively give the virus no where to go (or in other terms reach Herd Immunity where unprotected members of the herd are unlikely to encounter contagious members of the herd).

In other words, the virus would have to get 6-7 times worse than it is today at the BEST estimates before we would achieve herd immunity here in the United States.

Mathematicians and statisticians are calculating the herd immunity threshold to be in the 10-20% range (not 80% like epidemiologists keep regurgitating).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

 

[ookitarepanda]

Mathematicians and statisticians are calculating the herd immunity threshold to be in the 10-20% range (not 80% like epidemiologists keep regurgitating).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

From the medRxiv "about" section:
Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

That being said, this isn't a thread about the legitimacy of COVID-19, speculation on herd immunity, anything like that. It's just about feeling the personal weight of deciding to do something luxurious for oneself (flying to a theme park now instead of later) where it has an actual defined effect on other people (being another vector for viral transmission).

 

[darby888]

From the medRxiv "about" section:
Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

That being said, this isn't a thread about the legitimacy of COVID-19, speculation on herd immunity, anything like that. It's just about feeling the personal weight of deciding to do something luxurious for oneself (flying to a theme park now instead of later) where it has an actual defined effect on other people (being another vector for viral transmission).

And yet you just did as well.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Mathematicians and statisticians are calculating the herd immunity threshold to be in the 10-20% range (not 80% like epidemiologists keep regurgitating).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

Yes, but if you read the article carefully, they are depending on social distancing and other factors remaining in effect and immunizations performed carefully on select people.

Tell me any part of that sentence which the United States of America falls into. They also clearly state that if these conditions are not met (which is true for the US at least), the Herd Immunity percentage remains at above 60%.

The way the country is headed, we are still no where near Herd Immunity.

 

[darby888]

Yes, but if you read the article carefully, they are depending on social distancing and other factors remaining in effect and immunizations performed carefully on select people.

Tell me any part of that sentence which the United States of America falls into. They also clearly state that if these conditions are not met (which is true for the US at least), the Herd Immunity percentage remains at above 60%.

The way the country is headed, we are still no where near Herd Immunity.

Well there is really no such thing as actual immunity ever.. What people call immunity, is more like resistance, that lowers the severity and duration of an illness. You can get your yearly seasonal flu shot and still come down with the flu twice in one season. What is it, something like 200K-600K die of the flu worldwide annually. COVID-19 will continue to mutate as it already has been. How accurate are tests? Plenty reports of false positives and false negatives. How many are infected currenty? How accurate are those counts? How many are walking around asymptomatic? Which makes it very difficult to know precisely how much asymptomatic transmission is actually happening? How can anyone be certain at this point?

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Well there is really no such thing as actual immunity ever.. What people call immunity, is more like resistance, that lowers the severity and duration of an illness. You can get your yearly seasonal flu shot and still come down with the flu twice in one season. What is it, something like 200K-600K die of the flu worldwide annually. COVID-19 will continue to mutate as it already has been. How accurate are tests? Plenty reports of false positives and false negatives. How many are infected currenty? How accurate are those counts? How many are walking around asymptomatic? Which makes it very difficult to know precisely how much asymptomatic transmission is actually happening? How can anyone be certain at this point?

Certainly not. Back back to the point of the thread, To the OP - as I said before, you do you. Do not let others guilt you into either going or delaying your trip.

According to all sources I have seen, Disney is making fast, immediate and supportive changes daily. There was a great article from one of the union leaders that said as soon as they say to Disney "6 feet in this location is not enough. Can we get 10?" Disney does that change the next day without question or argument.

Another article recounts that TO DATE, there have been ZERO infections confirmed to come from the theme parks.

Bottom line is that Disney is doing an amazing job managing the virus. You can not count on transportation. You have to be diligent. You have to use wipes, hand sanitizer, wear your mask and practice social distancing. Take responsibility for your safety. But with all of those factors, you can be as reasonably sure of your safety as you can anywhere else in the country except perhaps your own basement, never leaving the house and having food delivered via trained dog, and sanitizing every external surface you come into contact with.

In other words, do not feel guilty! Just be careful and do what you feel is important to you.

 

[bastraker]

We are here now and having an amazing time! Waits are non existent. I love the no crowds and social distancing. Disney is doing an amazing job and I feel safe!

One major problem is little food options and no park hopping.