Figuring things out...please critique!

cpgecko21

Earning My Ears
Joined
Dec 13, 2017
My partner and I just got back from our second trip in two years to Aulani. We have 2 daughters (4 and almost 1). We're likely to go on many more Disney trips (DL next year, DCL in 2020 when the youngest is 3, DW in the future).

My partner went through the DVC talk and was moved toward buying, but we need to make the numbers work. I shop aggressively for Disney rates and tend to find quality discounts (Mousesavers and the like), which means the DVC pitch of you'll pay it off in 6-8 trips doesn't line up with the prices we pay.

Here are some facts of us...

-in Seattle, so DL is much closer
-love 1BR accomodations
-likely want to bounce around to different locations
-appreciate flexibility in planning
-totally willing to book early/ plan ahead (at 11 or 7 month windows)
-we tend to travel at offpeak times

I was a member of DVC with my ex back in the day. I loved BWV, but don't think I'd want to buy in there with the relatively shorter contract. I like AKL, but it's remote. Used to stay at Wilderness Lodge a ton pre-DVC, but felt it was getting crowded for what it had set up for amenities.

DVC is giving us a pitch, but the price per point is so high relative to resale...especially for Aulani. I'm also not sure that I want to lock in there given their escalating fees and the risk of being beachfront.

At this point, I'm thinking we look at resale or wait until after a future DW trip to decide, but I'd love feedback/guidance/knowledge based on the wisdom of this board. I've read a ton of threads and appreciate any help y'all can offer!
 
I'm not really sure that DVC would be right for you. It could work out, but I'm just not sure it's right.

DVC works best when you can commit to a regular visit every year or two, and can plan things out 11 months ahead. It's not great for flexibility, and not great for bouncing around locations.

Resale is the way to go unless you want the newest property
 
-love 1BR accomodations
-likely want to bounce around to different locations

Booking 1bedrooms at 7 months is much much easier than booking studios. This means that buying a contract for SSR could be the best long term value for you. It has one of the lowest buy-in prices coupled with the lowest maintenance fees.
But you must be happy to stay at SSR if you cannot find anything to switch to another resort at 7 months.
I find it's beautiful and in an excellent location being in walking distance to DS. So I'm perfectly happy to have it as my home resort, but your mileage may vary.


-in Seattle, so DL is much closer

The Grand Californian DVC is very small and difficult to get at 7 months. 1bedroom can be easier to get, studios are very difficult.
If you want to stay at the VGC routinely, then it's better to buy there (which means to pay the hefty buy-in cost)


-we tend to travel at offpeak times

Be aware that Off-peak for Disney and off-peak for DVC are different.
DVC is the buisiest from late Septemeber to marathon week end in January, with the addition of a few race week ends and some holidays (4th of July, for example).

However if you're flexible with your travel dates and buy enough points for 1B, then SSR can work for you.

Also, if you really like Aulani and plan to stay there often, finding an Aulani contract with subsided dues can work for you as well. Not having a WDW resort as a home is not advisable for many because for very busy periods you risk to be shut out completely at 7 months (SSR should be almost always available, though). But since you'll book 1bed, having a home resort priority at Aulani can be a great advantage for you. Non subsided contracts have much higher dues, so long term you have to run the numbers to see if it would work.
 
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For you, the most difficult routine DVC reservation to get will be VGC at DL. Hard to book at 7 months.

If you’re willing to do Aulani slightly off season and WDW off of “DVC season” (Anytime except race weekends, Easter, Spring Break, or Sept-early Jan), then your best bet would be a few hundred VGC points.

That would be enough for at least a 1br and enough flexibility for you to make all three work.

VGC is the roadblock to making all three work unless that’s your home resort.

Also. Rumor is a new DL DVC in ‘21 or so. If it’s a decision that can be punted a few years, that might be an option.

I wouldn’t worry about length of contract. Don’t sacrifice two decades of what you want now for what you might want then. If you still want to go to Disney in 2042, you’ll have options then, too.
 


I am in a similar situation as you.
-off peak
-can plan
-would like to bounce around
-good likelihood of Aul, GCV, WDW.

I ended up ruling out WDW as I felt like the off peak times would allow me to book most places I would want to stay without issue (I was ok without BC, BWV, VGF - family prefers Poly, BLT 1 BR). My decision came down to GCV vs Aulani. I thought I could get Aulani for $80/pt and VGC for 150/pt. So it was either 600 points for Aulani (live with not getting good chances at GCV) or 320ish for GCV and 1 less vacation per year.

I chose Aulani in the end. We are pretty happy and plan for Hawaii once a year and then either WDW or DL (VGC if possible).

For Aulani I thought subsidized dues were not worth it. The upfront cost was more than $20/pt higher so it would take more than 10 years to payback.

Hope that helps and good luck.
 
I was a member of DVC with my ex back in the day. I loved BWV, but don't think I'd want to buy in there with the relatively shorter contract. I like AKL, but it's remote. Used to stay at Wilderness Lodge a ton pre-DVC, but felt it was getting crowded for what it had set up for amenities.
!

This is somewhat of a tangent but having just got back from a stay at AKV (Kidani) I was pleasantly surprised at how efficient the bus routes are there. VGF (home resort) is hands down the winner with monorail to (and boat from) when it comes to MK, as expected, and unsurprisingly the AKV bus was faster hitting HS and AK, since its quite a bit closer, and the bus seems to come way more frequently at AK than at VGF (anecdotal). The surprising thing to me (probably not to others), is that AK bus clocked in consistently faster heading to Epcot. So 3 of the 4 parks were quicker from "remote" AK.
 
I would wait until after you've visited WDW again with your family - a lot has changed, there's a lot of expansion, and you may find a resort or a totally different experience with your girls. I thought for sure I wanted to get BWV (as a 2nd home resort) but DH convinced me otherwise and we are in ROFR for the Grand Floridian. We also have 2 girls, ages 6 and 2. (May I suggest also going to WDW just before your younger one turns 3? You "save" a bit, doing Disney math, on buffets and park tickets.)

I would also take a look at resale prices. It doesn't seem like direct would make sense for you.

If you think you're likely to go to DL more often than WDW, then I agree with others that VGC may make the most sense for you. But I'd be hesitant to sink all the $ into VGC until you see how WDW works for you and your family - even though it's a long flight from Seattle, if you think you may be going once a year, it might be worth leaving open for consideration buying at WDW instead of VGC.*

Finally - right now with kids not in real school, it's nice to be able to travel at off times, and by all means you should do it when you can. But recognize that in a few years, you may not have that option because your oldest will be in school. (Our 6yo goes to a pretty rigorous school that frowns on pulling kids out, believe it or not, and we don't want to jeopardize our spot there). Before she was in school, I was like you, had no "need" to think about DVC because I always got those codes that got us 35% and more off rooms. Then we rented points for a while, but then realized that with the exception of summer, we a) knew when school vacations were, 12 months in advance, b) were limited to traveling during those times and there's NO good deals then - and so soon after, we bought in.

*Also, I don't see VGC as an annual, stay for a week type of vacation, since there is so much other stuff to do in SoCal. But that may be my East Coast showing. If you think you could get cheap last minute fares to LAX anyway, and go down for a long weekend or a few days whenever, then they 11 mo home booking window isn't going to matter, and then you might as well get cheaper points at WDW or Aulani.

Hope this helps!
 


*Also, I don't see VGC as an annual, stay for a week type of vacation, since there is so much other stuff to do in SoCal. But that may be my East Coast showing.

I agree on this, I find the perfect vacation lenght in DLR is 3-4 days and then go somewhere else, in Orlando it's two weeks dedicated to theme parks.
Also, as far as the GrandCali is a great hotel, I wouldn't plan a hotel only stay there, while in WDW you can easily never step in a park and still have a great vacation. So for 3-4 days if I cannot get VGC at 7 months (I've had a 50% success rate) it's not a big deal, there are so many hotels in walking distance anyway. I cannot think of going to Orlando without being on site, instead.
 
This is somewhat of a tangent but having just got back from a stay at AKV (Kidani) I was pleasantly surprised at how efficient the bus routes are there. VGF (home resort) is hands down the winner with monorail to (and boat from) when it comes to MK, as expected, and unsurprisingly the AKV bus was faster hitting HS and AK, since its quite a bit closer, and the bus seems to come way more frequently at AK than at VGF (anecdotal). The surprising thing to me (probably not to others), is that AK bus clocked in consistently faster heading to Epcot. So 3 of the 4 parks were quicker from "remote" AK.

Yeah, I think the "AKV is so far from everything" point is overblown. It's our home resort and we have stayed there on 3 of our 5 last trips (OKW the other 2) and it is really only a few more minutes in the car to/from the parks from AKL.
 
Y'all are amazing.

This is great and really useful advice.

I think we've hit the point in our discernment where it makes the most sense for us to pump the brakes and wait. Next trip is DL for sure and then the advice to slide into DW before our youngest turns 3 will speak to the money saving soul of my partner.

Also, that tip about school years is really interesting. The math is so much less favorable when the rates you compare to have heavy discounts on the rooms and other assorted bonuses.

Thanks for the breakdowns on the AKL travel time too. I do enjoy that place!

Really appreciate the help and feedback.
 
Y'all are amazing.

This is great and really useful advice.

I think we've hit the point in our discernment where it makes the most sense for us to pump the brakes and wait. Next trip is DL for sure and then the advice to slide into DW before our youngest turns 3 will speak to the money saving soul of my partner.

Also, that tip about school years is really interesting. The math is so much less favorable when the rates you compare to have heavy discounts on the rooms and other assorted bonuses.

Thanks for the breakdowns on the AKL travel time too. I do enjoy that place!

Really appreciate the help and feedback.

This is why we are going over Thanksgiving 2018 - YDD will be 2 years and 363 days old, I think (she was born on Thanksgiving 2015). We did this with ODD not really intentionally, but it was a great trip with her, even though we had a few OT meltdowns.

Also - this was our timeline earlier this year - school breaks here are President's week and Easter week:

President's week: we manage to tag along on DH's work trip to Miami. Had a great time. Start thinking about April break, as we will have to pay for child care/camp if we stay at home anyway. Florida was nice and warm ... WDW hotels are about $600 and up, if there's even space ... airfares $600 and up over Easter holidays ... and that's when we seriously started talking about buying DVC sooner rather than later; we were in contract a few weeks later.

(I realized the mousesavers and other deals usually don't come out until 6 months or less in advance, and looking at historically when they were offered -- never during school breaks.)
 

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