Hurricane watch 2018

Spaghetti Cat

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Joined
Jun 20, 2018
No hurricanes in August, fantastic. September looks good so far, I think NOAA NHC is the best source:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Here's a better view (also linked within the site above) posted by ILoveMyDVC in another thread:

So you don't have to wait for a news story.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Here's a scary sounding story from USA Today Posted by Rich M in another thread:


Good luck to all.


---- edits -----
One of our favorite sites is Tropical Tidbits, he gives great explanations on what should effect the storms. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

That's a good site! I follow Mike's Weather Page on Facebook, too. Good stuff.
Link: www.spaghettimodels.com
 
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I think we were due for a quiet season, and I am glad that so far it has been one. Looks like one is spinning up off Africa, but will be a couple weeks before it gets near the US mainland, if it does. We go to FL mid Oct, so will be watching closely starting here soon.
 
https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...pment-possible-gulf-of-mexico-florida-bahamas

At a Glance:

  • A tropical wave emerging off Africa, Invest 90L, is likely to develop.
  • This system may enhance rain in the Cabo Verde Islands.
  • It should remain over the central Atlantic Ocean into next week.
  • A Caribbean tropical wave will move into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
  • There's a very low chance that wave might develop in the Gulf next week.
  • Regardless, rounds of locally heavy rain are expected along the Gulf Coast.

Despite gaining strength, the majority of forecast model guidance suggests it will eventually curve northward into the central Atlantic Ocean, not posing a threat to any other land areas, including the United States or Caribbean Sea. (Invest 90L)
 




Rest assured, I just paid $ 5000 for storm shutters on my windows, so there will be no hurricanes hitting anywhere near Florida for the next 5 years.

All joking aside, it's been a very quiet season so far and looks to stay that way.

Predicting hurricanes more than 24-48 hours out is sort of like predicting crowds at WDW months out...can't be done with any true accuracy value. Keep your eyes open and deal with it as it comes.

Truth.

I've lived in Broward county Florida my entire life. I remember in '92 (I was 10) when Andrew was supposed to come right over top of Broward but swung south instead hitting Miami and Homestead the last few hours.

Same sort of thing happened last year with Irma. It was supposed to come right over top of us here in Broward, but shifted and the brunt of it went more west coast. We still took a beating as did Miami and the Keys but nothing like we expected.
 
I am a Floridian that lives in South Florida and studies meteorology.

- Yes it has been quiet so far

- From the looks of things on the long range computer models YES September we will see an uptick in storms in the Atlantic. DOES NOT mean a storm will hit anywhere though.

now that being said, it is extremely hard to predict where and how strong these storms will be more than 5 days out. Things change DRASTICALLY in weather very fast (Irma last year completely changed course within 5 days until landfall)

We can take a look at the long range computer models and we can look at the upper atmosphere and the steering flow which can give us an "IDEA" of where storms MIGHT go.

From what long range models are showing, For the first 10 days of Sept storms should be steered North and OUT TO SEA. There MIGHT and I say MIGHT be a period from Sept 15 until around Oct 1 where storms could be pushed closer to the coast.

It is a wait and see game.


FWIW: Next week there will be a Tropical Wave that will pass through Florida into the Gulf. It will be very rainy in Disney and most of FL Monday and Tuesday of next week.
 
I am a Floridian that lives in South Florida and studies meteorology.

- Yes it has been quiet so far

- From the looks of things on the long range computer models YES September we will see an uptick in storms in the Atlantic. DOES NOT mean a storm will hit anywhere though.

now that being said, it is extremely hard to predict where and how strong these storms will be more than 5 days out. Things change DRASTICALLY in weather very fast (Irma last year completely changed course within 5 days until landfall)

We can take a look at the long range computer models and we can look at the upper atmosphere and the steering flow which can give us an "IDEA" of where storms MIGHT go.

From what long range models are showing, For the first 10 days of Sept storms should be steered North and OUT TO SEA. There MIGHT and I say MIGHT be a period from Sept 15 until around Oct 1 where storms could be pushed closer to the coast.

It is a wait and see game.


FWIW: Next week there will be a Tropical Wave that will pass through Florida into the Gulf. It will be very rainy in Disney and most of FL Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Thank you for joining this thread. Your knowledge will be much appreciated. I will be there Oct 8th to Oct 20th with a Caribbean Cruise on Oct 11th. Thinking good thoughts with something completely out of my hands.
 
There’s also an app from the National Hurricane Centre called NOAA Now whete you can keep an eye on it.
 
Rest assured, I just paid $ 5000 for storm shutters on my windows, so there will be no hurricanes hitting anywhere near Florida for the next 5 years.

All joking aside, it's been a very quiet season so far and looks to stay that way.



Truth.

I've lived in Broward county Florida my entire life. I remember in '92 (I was 10) when Andrew was supposed to come right over top of Broward but swung south instead hitting Miami and Homestead the last few hours.

Same sort of thing happened last year with Irma. It was supposed to come right over top of us here in Broward, but shifted and the brunt of it went more west coast. We still took a beating as did Miami and the Keys but nothing like we expected.

We thank you for your sacrifice!

I live in the savannah area now, and after years of avoiding just about everything, to get hit with two so close together was a wake up call. Thankfully impacts were relatively minor compared to what could have been. I grew up in c. Fla, and same kind of thing, years of near misses and then 2004 happened. My parents have homes in marathon and Bradenton, too, so Irma pretty much hit my entire family on its way by.
 
FWIW: Next week there will be a Tropical Wave that will pass through Florida into the Gulf. It will be very rainy in Disney and most of FL Monday and Tuesday of next week.


this is what I was talking about on the MNSSHP thread.



Monday is my HS day, I was planning on rope dropping SDD, hopefully that will still happen. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are passholder events from 7am to 9am at HS and even though we have AP's, I wasn't fast enough to secure a spot. I'm nervous to switch my HS day because I think that TSL will already be crowded at opening because of this. :scratchin:scratchin:scratchin
 
Following, although I think my Sept. 2-7 trip should be ok.

These are our dates too.

I think we'll be out of FL before anything substantial coming off Africa. Hoping the tropical wave currently over Puerto Rico goes way south. ::yes::::yes::
 

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