Out of curiosity how many points do you have there for 8-10 days every other year? Was wondering how many days a 1br would take there for a week every other year across different seasons. Guessing around 150.
I say this with all due respect, but if you think that it is possible that DVC "oversold" this resort then you probably don't have a firm understanding of how the DVC system works. While there are clear challenges to booking that have been well described in this thread, I would also suggest that you take the time to fully research the mechanics of DVC to determine if it is a system that will work for you.
If you're OK missing standard/value view options and trying various resorts over time, I agree. Frankly, I think this is workable for all bed types if you want to try things over time and even for the higher demand times. But it does require more stress, uncertainty and effort than some are willing to endure. There may be a few things that are going to not be workable with this approach but if you eliminate the things that are a problem even at 11 months if you own there, not a lot.
Agree. When I go though there is no stress as the 1 bed is almost 100% guaranteed to be open and I just book at 7 months. So I'm going next July but haven't bothered booking at 11 to switch, no point. IF however I was trying the same tactic at peak times, I'd have booked my SSR at 11 and on 7 months be logging on to try and switch, then waitlist, and stalking etc. Then the stress could go up as even if you get it at 7 months it' not virtually guaranteed as it is in off peak.
Stress is self generated, I don't sweat it either, most of my stays are on exchanges so significantly more savings and far less certainty but it works for me. And most of the time when I have used my points myself, I've ended up using the wait list to some degree including piecing together a standard view wait list for 7 nights in a BWV standard view studio before Xmas last year. As I said, anything that's not difficult at 11 months out day one is possible 7 months out, anything, but some will be more difficult and less likely than others. And things change over time, there may come a time when this isn't the case. In large part the new resort may define that issue, esp since I'm inclined to think it's demand long term will be less than the average at WDW though more than SSR/OKW/AKV.
I think @zavandor was more referring to "points per night." Note that CCV cabins are cheaper (points per night) than bungalows. The points themselves are at current $$$, but the points-per-room for CCV was kept in line with BRV. So the hope is that Riviera rooms cost less than VGF rooms, which are pretty pricey for points per night.
This was my train of thought when the "moderate" DVC concept was discussed. The only way to have "balance" would be to price the points in-line with the current direct pricing. The "moderate" aspect could be achieved through a lower point structure...charging 8-12 points per night in a studio. This would achieve three things:
Obviously there are a lot of variables from a demand standpoint including points charts, rooms types, room specifics, how the gondola system is implemented and perceived, resort specifics and the like. My opinion of it being of medium demand is an aggregate of my opinion on those variables. While I suspect the end point will be the same as it sounds like you do, I wouldn't call it greedy. It is their responsibility from a business standpoint to balance these issues so it sells at a sufficient speed but at the highest price and the highest points. Do I feel the potential is there to be a high end resort, yes and not. I don't feel they can reasonably get it to the level of the Monorail or EPCOT resorts but they could get it close. I don't feel the point will be as much as Poly/VGF, likely more in the range of BCV/BWV non standard or BLT. They did surprise me on the CCV coming in the same as BRV though so we'll see. Ultimately it depends on what they feel the market will bear as it should.
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