Polynesian CRUSHING Copper Creek in direct sales

One thing is for certain. DVD sells out every project, some can take a little longer and in the past much longer with better incentives. At BLT we received a 7 day cruise for buying, today the prices are much higher with less incentives due to a stronger market.

:earsboy: Bill

 
One thing is for certain. DVD sells out every project, some can take a little longer and in the past much longer with better incentives. At BLT we received a 7 day cruise for buying, today the prices are much higher with less incentives due to a stronger market.

:earsboy: Bill
DVC vastly underestimated the value of its product in the beginning. They initially offered OKW for presale at $48/point and that came with several years of APs as part of the deal. Even BWV is vastly undervalued in its point chart. DVC could have plugged in a million more points to sell there. That was the 90's.

DVC has spent the last 15 yrs ratcheting up its price per point and point per night to find its true market value.

They found their break point with the Poly chart for $170.

When they tweaked Poly with incentives back down to just less than $160, Poly sales exploded. In fact, at about $12 less per point on average with incentives, Poly sales doubled.

My guess is the true market value for developer points is around $160 with a point per night structure somewhere between Poly and CCV depending on location. After more than a decade of searching, DVC found its peak pricing.

And it turns out, even adjusted for inflation, DVC peak pricing is more than twice as much as where they started with OKW. And that's with offering far less in incentives and with point charts much higher. All told, DVC's peak price is more than 3x what they originally believed.

But to the point of the last post, DVC is in the driver's seat. At peak pricing, DVC has plenty of latitude to move points. Even, I believe, during the next recession.
 
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I'm just pointing out that the numbers tell us that all studios wasn't this definite deal breaker everybody made it out to be. Even with only studios (the biggest and best by far within DVC I might add), Poly is still a better option and more desirable than many other resorts out there. And I'm pointing out more room combinations isn't the end all be all. CCV offered more combinations than any resort but still is a less desirable purchase overall because a number of other factors. I've long argued that what makes Poly such a great buy is the grounds, the food, the views, the theming, the best transportation options on property, etc. but all I ever hear in response is "Yeah but it's all studios." Bottom line is there is a lot more important things than number of room options and configurations that makes a resort desirable. And say what you want about pushing resorts but we only have to look at AULANI as an example that you can push all you want but if it's not what the people/market wants it simply won't sell.
 
In any case, sales for Poly were sluggish (~75k/month) until DVC started offering incentives that brought the price down from the $170s to just under $160. Then sales boomed to something like 140k a month. It might be averaging 110k now, but that average doesn't tell the story that DVC had to offer incentives to sell Poly, something they did NOT do at VGF.

I definitely think cost per point is a factor with both Poly and CCV. VGF kicked off at $145 per point in 2013. The price did go to $165, but it was at or near sell-through. In 4 years price has jumped $36/point. When buying a 100-point contract, that's not a rounding error for most buyers of a contract that size.
 


i am thinking its 176 dollars a point and not the resorts per say 1 bed room for magic season 271 points to 47,696 dollars buy in plus a whopping 7.32 per point in fees or almost 2,000 a year.....(holycrap BTW) i know we can get into and endless debate on the economy how much people make how expensive Disney is but just let those number soak in. what kind of income do you need to buy this? my guess is 200k a year plus household. then you need to find people who dont already own a DVC that can afford that i know there are people out there but how many newly awoken Disney lovers are out there with 50k laying around. Second let this number soak in. you could rent at 13 a point that would cost you 3,523 or 1523 net of the year fee. so it would take you 31 years to break even! i want everyone who is about to plunk down 47k 31 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!! i love my dvc but this is just A LOT
 
I'm just pointing out that the numbers tell us that all studios wasn't this definite deal breaker everybody made it out to be. Even with only studios (the biggest and best by far within DVC I might add), Poly is still a better option and more desirable than many other resorts out there. And I'm pointing out more room combinations isn't the end all be all. CCV offered more combinations than any resort but still is a less desirable purchase overall because a number of other factors. I've long argued that what makes Poly such a great buy is the grounds, the food, the views, the theming, the best transportation options on property, etc. but all I ever hear in response is "Yeah but it's all studios." Bottom line is there is a lot more important things than number of room options and configurations that makes a resort desirable. And say what you want about pushing resorts but we only have to look at AULANI as an example that you can push all you want but if it's not what the people/market wants it simply won't sell.
I bought Poly during its first months for sale.

VGF started crushing it just as Poly went on sale, a reasonable parallel to what's happening now.

People were saying that the disappointed pent up demand for Poly was being transferred to VGF sales. Just like they're saying now with CCV and Poly.

In fact, the guides are likely pushing Poly to completion to clear the field for CCV.

Aulani is an exception (and a different thread for why) and I believe DVC has reconciled itself to selling Aulani piecemeal and using its developer points to run a CRO resort in the meantime.
 
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I mean.... I don't think Copper Creek is really comparable to
i am thinking its 176 dollars a point and not the resorts per say 1 bed room for magic season 271 points to 47,696 dollars buy in plus a whopping 7.32 per point in fees or almost 2,000 a year.....(holycrap BTW) i know we can get into and endless debate on the economy how much people make how expensive Disney is but just let those number soak in. what kind of income do you need to buy this? my guess is 200k a year plus household. then you need to find people who dont already own a DVC that can afford that i know there are people out there but how many newly awoken Disney lovers are out there with 50k laying around. Second let this number soak in. you could rent at 13 a point that would cost you 3,523 or 1523 net of the year fee. so it would take you 31 years to break even! i want everyone who is about to plunk down 47k 31 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!! i love my dvc but this is just A LOT


We just went to the buy DVC at Poly and with these numbers made much more sense to buy resale. It's crazy. We just bought some points at HHI and are very happy with that decision. And the "Disney perks" that they told us we would miss out on still didn't make sure for the crazy price discrepancy. And then they were trying to push us to buy Copper Creek at the same price as the Poly..... ummmm no. Resale right now is the only way to buy if you are looking at financial.
 


As a family of 5, being pushed all the way to a 2 bedroom for Copper Creek is a BIG turnoff.
I feel that DVC has missed the market for this family make-up -- a 2 bedroom requires a lot of points, so many can not afford this size contract, at studio for 5 is too cramped, so to build a resort and only have a 1 bedroom that can only accommodate 4 is a let down. This is what limited our list of DVC contracts that fit our family of 5. Hopefully with a completely new build at Riviera will bring a different occupancy limits.

Having 5 people in a studio sounds great when you have small children ... All adults or teenagers, not so much. No way could my family of 4 with teens would have been comfortable in a poly studio.
This scenario might be ok for a shorter visit, but a week in a studio with 2 adults, 2 12 yo boys and a 4 year old would get pretty cramped pretty quickly. Not that people spend too much time in their room, but it is nice to know you can go back to your room, spread out and relax and not be on top of each other.
 
I feel that DVC has missed the market for this family make-up -- a 2 bedroom requires a lot of points, so many can not afford this size contract, at studio for 5 is too cramped, so to build a resort and only have a 1 bedroom that can only accommodate 4 is a let down. This is what limited our list of DVC contracts that fit our family of 5. Hopefully with a completely new build at Riviera will bring a different occupancy limits.

This scenario might be ok for a shorter visit, but a week in a studio with 2 adults, 2 12 yo boys and a 4 year old would get pretty cramped pretty quickly. Not that people spend too much time in their room, but it is nice to know you can go back to your room, spread out and relax and not be on top of each other.


I would like to point out that we are also a family of 5 and Poly owners (in case you couldn't tell lol), and to me, Poly is the PERFECT resort for a family of 5. For less than the points of a 1 bedroom at VGF, (a comparable monorail resort) that only sleep 5 and have 1 shower, you can get 2 CONNECTING studios at Poly. The kids have one room, the parents have one room, we each have two showers. Its perfect. Open the door for family time. Close it for privacy. I'd much rather be in that setup than a 1 bedroom for more points. And a 2 bedroom? Out of the question at any resort except BWV, SSR, AKV, and OKW because of the extreme amount of points. At VGF the cheapest you can get a 2 bedroom is 340 points for the week! 340!!! And thats for 1200sq ft and 2 bathrooms. For 236 points you get 1000 sq feet and 4 bathrooms at PVB.... Im sorry but I think thats a much better deal and a better situation for a family of 5. Granted, we are over packers and don't do laundry on trips, and my wife is not the one to cook on vacation so we don't miss those added amenities.

But once again there is more to the story than only studios. The whole story is PVB has the largest studios by far with 2 bathrooms and great theming and is the ONLY DVC resort that pretty much guarantees connecting room. For my family 5 we would take the value we get out of 2 connecting studios at the Poly vs a 1 or 2 bedroom for more points elsewhere any day. Add to that the PVB is the ONLY DVC resort you could reasonably fit 5 if you really wanted to save points gives Poly great flexibility. With the 2 showers and extra space it may not be comfortable to fit 5, but it certainly is doable. All the other studios that sleep 5 are much smaller, have 1 shower, and as a result are not viable options for 5 adults IMO. The value of having virtually guaranteed connecting studios is HUGE, and Poly is the ONLY DVC resort that offers that luxury, but somehow it always gets dismissed, overlooked, and swept under the rug.

Here is how I see our 50 years going. When the kids are young, til' the oldest is 12 or so the 1 studio with 2 showers is perfect. When they become teenagers we get 2 CONNECTED studios, one for kids, one for parents. When they move out and we are empty nesters we are back to our nice, big, perfect studios. If friends want to come we get connecting studios. If we REALLY, REALLY want a grand villa or 2 bedroom we stay at a different resort, one with a lower point chart. Lets face it, the point chart for 1 and 2 bedrooms at PVB would be up there with VGF and that is just too expensive for my blood. If I am getting a 2 bedroom it will be at a resort that requires less points per night, period. So the fact that PVB has only studios is not even a negative in my eyes and is actually preferable for my situation, because I am confident that is all I will ever want/need at that specific resort.
 
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I'm just pointing out that the numbers tell us that all studios wasn't this definite deal breaker everybody made it out to be. Even with only studios (the biggest and best by far within DVC I might add), Poly is still a better option and more desirable than many other resorts out there. And I'm pointing out more room combinations isn't the end all be all. CCV offered more combinations than any resort but still is a less desirable purchase overall because a number of other factors. I've long argued that what makes Poly such a great buy is the grounds, the food, the views, the theming, the best transportation options on property, etc. but all I ever hear in response is "Yeah but it's all studios." Bottom line is there is a lot more important things than number of room options and configurations that makes a resort desirable. And say what you want about pushing resorts but we only have to look at AULANI as an example that you can push all you want but if it's not what the people/market wants it simply won't sell.

Those people who discussed the "mistake" at PVB never said it wasn't going to appeal to some or even many nor that it would never sell. :confused: Every resort has certain appeals and DVC has sold out all their resorts as they will sell out CCV too. Personally my thoughts haven't changed that with the PVB location, the economy and other appeals of the resort that they could have absolutely crushed it if they had included 1 and 2BR's. That tended to be the jist of most of the discussions. The off site locations have always been the most difficult and is why they have had plan after plan over the years and then backed off. But what they do offsite eventually sells too.
 
If I were going to buy CC it would only be because of the cabins, and I am reasonably sure they will always be available at 7 month.
 
Those people who discussed the "mistake" at PVB never said it wasn't going to appeal to some or even many nor that it would never sell. :confused: Every resort has certain appeals and DVC has sold out all their resorts as they will sell out CCV too. Personally my thoughts haven't changed that with the PVB location, the economy and other appeals of the resort that they could have absolutely crushed it if they had included 1 and 2BR's. That tended to be the jist of most of the discussions. The off site locations have always been the most difficult and is why they have had plan after plan over the years and then backed off. But what they do offsite eventually sells too.

It's funny that the "mistake" discussed before Poly was not enough studios at VGF.
 
Remember: timeshares are sold, not bought. When DVC has more than one resort on offer, the one that sells the best is going to be the one the Guides push most consistently. I would not read anything more into it than that. If there is a difference in the balance of supply/demand, you will see it in resale supply and prices after both owner bases mature a bit.

That said, I would not be surprised if PVB consistently gets a better price than CCV does in the resale market.
 
I was initially surprised now that most points have been sold that the Poly is still fairly easy to book at 7 months. But I think with the high points per night, that may continue. That being the case, I am very happy to use my BCV points, bought resale around six years ago at a very low price to book the Poly for some of our trips. We bought so that we could at times book a 2BR, but we also do some others trips with just a villa and just planned our 4th say at the Poly for next March.

If we had not already been DVC owners, the PVB and would have definitely interested me. As others have said, the Poly has a following. We stayed there exclusively until we bought DVC.
 
I was initially surprised now that most points have been sold that the Poly is still fairly easy to book at 7 months. But I think with the high points per night, that may continue. That being the case, I am very happy to use my BCV points, bought resale around six years ago at a very low price to book the Poly for some of our trips. We bought so that we could at times book a 2BR, but we also do some others trips with just a villa and just planned our 4th say at the Poly for next March.

If we had not already been DVC owners, the PVB and would have definitely interested me. As others have said, the Poly has a following. We stayed there exclusively until we bought DVC.
You can't judge eventual availability on a resort still for sale. Poly is 100% declared but only 85% sold. That's a mismatch that skews towards availability.

25% of Poly points are bungalows but only about 12.5% of owners have enough points (250 or more) to routinely stay in bungalows. That means Poly is oversold on studios.

If Poly is 12.5% oversold on studios, then once sold out, on any given booking night, 405 owners at Poly will be trying to book 360 studios.

Sone will trade out, and some times of year are busier than others.

(Currently, given the mismatch to ownership of studios vs excess capacity due to being fully declared, on any given booking night 346 Poly owners are chasing 360 rooms. That means right now, there's still excess availability even before people start booking out and before seasonal booking is factored in. That's what you're seeing. I don't expect it to last.)

Because of trading out and seasonal fluctuations, some availability will leak through to 7 months.

But I wouldn't count on much.
 
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http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/3895-direct-sales-improve-in-august-2017

Latest numbers were put out at DVC News since this thread started:

Sales August, 2017:

Poly: 115,000 points.
CCV: 60,000 points

So. Poly selling about 2:1 over CCV. Poly likely to sell out in next 2-3 months.

What surprises me is that 5 different legacy resorts (AKV, BWV, BLT, OKW, and SSR) have sold 4,000 or more points direct in August. That says 2 (possibly 3) things to me. 1. Higher ROFR is occurring. 2. Legacy buyers are getting frustrated with the lack of availability in the resale market and turning to direct purchasing for legacy resorts. 3? 25 points add ons is becoming big business for DVC. (Big enough for them to seriously ponder what a 50 point minimum would bring in.)

4,279 BLT points at $185/point? At that price, that's phenomenal!
 
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