So I just wanted to drop a scientific observation on my part:
When I rode Rise yesterday and was waiting in line, I wanted to test just how much the capacity was roughly. After the merge point, it looked like the entire group that was carted around from show to show was a whopping 11 people (but there were a number of parties of 1 or 2 people, so this was probably a smaller than usual group). I timed one of the shows that everyone must go through and they only have one of, and that came to about three minutes. So hypothetically that could mean that with no breakdowns and everything running smoothly that your capacity would be about 220 per hour. Let's say 300 people per hour on average with bigger parties. 9 hours of operations, and with the downtime that's maybe 6 hours of ride time. So 6x300=1,800 people a day. With 50% capacity there may be about 20,000-25,000 people in the park. So just being conservative, it sounds like there's only seats for 1/10 of the people in the park.
From the make up of the crowds, it seems like everyone is there for Rise. Very few families with very young children, and with the very low height requirement, I imagine most kids could ride it. If you brought a kid who couldn't ride Rise what could they possibly do all day? So, I imagine everyone is there for Rise, and of those people 1/10 get to ride. So Disney has basically made it a cross between a treasure hunting expedition and a lottery to figure out who the lucky 1/10 are.
Granted, the silver lining is that if you are reading this right now, and you use this message board, you probably have the tools to ride. Barring any unforeseen glitches, I think that you're fine if you tap "join" within 60 seconds of 10:00:00 AM. And realistically 60 seconds is a very, very long time if you think about it. I imagine that the unfortunate 90% are people who aren't educated on what needs to happen and/or show up "late." I've been at the front of the park at 10:05 AM and there's still huge lines to get in. Most people must not know that if they don't get in before park open that they don't have a prayer of getting on the major ride. I feel bad for them. This system I guess benefits us (assuming there's nothing they can do to fix the underlying issues)... I mean I've been on four times in the past few weeks, arguably benefits AP holders too, but is a little unfair to the uninformed who are paying $100 for a ticket, and their preferred market: the vacationers.
Oh well. It is what it is, I figured I would share my findings.