Riviera Resale

[sethschroeder]

I’m going to put on my tin foil conspiracy theory hat for a minute. What if Disney doesn’t ever want Riviera to sell out. It has a lot of points, it has the resale restriction, and it feels different from the other DVC resortS (just my opinion).

I agree with @sethschroeder that the resale price will never get below SSR. Disney won’t allow that to happen. It will ROFR each one of those contracts and keep the value at a certain level. I also agree with others that DVC may eventually reach a hotel saturation point and they may need a new business model to prevent that from happening.

Maybe they keep the hotel selling at a certain price with only small yearly increases. If they can keep the price low when compared to resale prices for other resorts, it may make buying direct a more attractive proposition. They can continue to ROFR RIV contracts and resell them at a $180 price point. It’s a simple rinse and repeat process.

Everyone wins in this scenario. Buyers of RIV have price protection and Disney can increase their per point margins by being able to sell them multiple times.

Zero chance RIV sold roughly 22% of its points in the first 12 months most of which it had not even opened yet. Plus it takes roughly 20 years to turn over 20% of a DVC resort based on historical numbers that people looked at.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

Zero chance RIV sold roughly 22% of its points in the first 12 months most of which it had not even opened yet. Plus it takes roughly 20 years to turn over 20% of a DVC resort based on historical numbers that people looked at.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it would happen either. It does makes tremendous sense, though. I’m not sure how accurate the 20% resort resale statistic is given the large variation in resort size, age, and location. But 20% of Riviera’s roughly 7M points is a pretty decent amount. That puts it in the ball park of HHI.

 

[sethschroeder]

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it would happen either. It does makes tremendous sense, though. I’m not sure how accurate the 20% resort resale statistic is given the large variation in resort size, age, and location. But 20% of Riviera’s roughly 7M points is a pretty decent amount. That puts it in the ball park of HHI.

Well there has been more recent percentages done on number of resale listing and they map fairly well to size of resort as well. Smaller resorts get resold less often. I think the point to take away is there is not a huge turnover.

Also I don't think they are anywhere near capacity for DVC they may just need to change the target. I have brought it up before but they could build out a resort that is primarily made of value style room from AKV which means a lower cost and being able to target those who currently would stay at a Value Resort annually which could also be paired with a 5 year 0% interest loan possibly with tickets included during that period.

We have possibly 5-6 resorts until they start reselling 2042 again:

• In between VGF/MK
• Contemporary
• Wilderness Lodge
• Yacht Club
• Coronado Springs
• River Country Land
• Caribbean Beach (area between RIV and CBR Skyliner)
• AOA/POP ("value" DVC)

 

[CastAStone]

Answer me this if BCV, CCV, or POLY had the restriction right now of only staying at that resort would it be less than SSR? I don't think so.

People already do split stays and have some points at a MK resort and some points at a Epcot resort. RIV will just be the Epcot points that are exclusive for staying there so being locked in to that resort while limiting is what the expectation was for the points to start with.

So many people seem to just dismiss having easy quick access to Epcot (and even HS). There is a group out there who exclusively want to stay around Epcot or at least for the part of each stay want to stay next to Epcot.

Run this through your calculations:
9 nights in October in a Studio
BCV - 148 points @$130/point
BWV - 120 points @$110/point
BWV - 128 points @$110/point
RIV - 161 points @$90/point
RIV - 205 points @$90/point
*probably could get SSR for cheaper even

Also don't forget to in 2042 sell the RIV contract back for the same price you bought minus the 8% broker fee.

CCV maybe, the others no. I think it’s very possible Rivera will settle above SSR! I also think it’s very possible that it won’t. People have proven they are willing to give different resorts significantly different discounts vs cash. I'm curious as to why the poster was adamant that it will settle above Riviera as I think it’s still ambiguous.

 

[sethschroeder]

CCV maybe, the others no. I think it’s very possible Rivera will settle above SSR! I also think it’s very possible that it won’t. People have proven they are willing to give different resorts significantly different discounts vs cash. I'm curious as to why the poster was adamant that it will settle above Riviera as I think it’s still ambiguous.

For the exact reason I posted. SSR is bought because its the cheapest to stay in other locations while RIV will be purchased to just stay in the Epcot area (which people already do). For everyone that will get a choice between SSR and RIV there would be enough demand for a Epcot skyliner ride away resort to cover whatever number of points come up for RIV at that low of a cost.

I am fine if someone says it will be cheaper than SSR though.

Just remember this thought: I can buy RIV for cheaper by $20-$40 over BWV/BCV and the resale value will be better than BCV/BWV in 10-15 years time as those resorts will be really close to expiring so I will get more back out of the contract.

 

[Doberge]

We have possibly 5-6 resorts until they start reselling 2042 again:

• In between VGF/MK
• Contemporary
• Wilderness Lodge
• Yacht Club
• Coronado Springs
• River Country Land
• Caribbean Beach (area between RIV and CBR Skyliner)
• AOA/POP ("value" DVC)

A reliable poster on another board reported that Disney recently cancelled a surprise Poly tower that would have accomodated one and two bedroom units. In theory that is still on the table for the future before 2042, ahead of some of these others.

Bay Lake Tower 2, in place of the the garden view rooms at Contemporary is another one for the list of possibilities.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I would love a Poly tower! Oh please let that happen next!

 

[Kickstart]

I think a vibrant resale market with high prices is actually good for DVC Direct. I know for certain that we would never have purchased DVC if we expected the value of it to be essentially zero after we purchased it. At the end of the day, that would make DVC just like any other timeshare, and everyone knows timeshares are a bad idea and a waste of money. If DVC is trying to kill the resale market long term, I think that would be shooting themselves in the foot.

I'm thinking they wouldn't kill it, but would own it. Maybe even publishing resale/buy back prices every year.

I'm guessing that in addition to not expecting the value to go to zero (except at contract expiration), most people buying in weren't counting on the the resale price to be higher than what they paid direct after 10+ years. A timeshare's resale price being at a higher price point than when direct buyers initially bought, and having less years left... that's just crazy, right? I'm sure DVC is looking at that as lost opportunity.

DVC could still advertise the downside protection of their own buy back program. For example, let's say they offered to buy back contracts at 75% of the price per point paid, prorated by the percentage of remaining years on the contract (or something along those lines). That would still be a great selling point for prospective buyers and would likely allow DVC to buy back contracts cheaper than they're paying today in ROFR (for most resorts).

 

[Lorana]

A reliable poster on another board reported that Disney recently cancelled a surprise Poly tower that would have accomodated one and two bedroom units. In theory that is still on the table for the future before 2042, ahead of some of these others.

Bay Lake Tower 2, in place of the the garden view rooms at Contemporary is another one for the list of possibilities.

While I’d very much want Poly to have 1 & 2 BRs, a tower seems like it would detract from the theme of the resort, just like (to me at least) Gran Destino tower detracted from Coronado Springs. Hopefully Disney Imagineers would do a better job incorporating a new Poly DVC into the existing layout.

 

[Matty B13]

A reliable poster on another board reported that Disney recently cancelled a surprise Poly tower that would have accomodated one and two bedroom units. In theory that is still on the table for the future before 2042, ahead of some of these others.

This might have been part of the original DVC plan, that they cut short because of the sewage issues at Poly. Chances are that the sewer pipe to main pipe in the road is to small to accommodate the additional rooms. This is why the current Poly DVC doesn't have any extra 1 & 2 bedrooms, and has the occasional backups into the rooms.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I would love a Poly tower! Oh please let that happen next!

I'd actually think that an add on at the Poly gets higher on the list vs before when Reflections was a go. That or a BLT tower. A brand new standalone combination hotel/timeshare resort will be a ways off again. Add on's or conversions will be the plan - again.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

A Poly tower with 1- and 2-bedrooms not bookable via home priority for original owners of PVB would annoy me, since we've bought at the original Poly and would probably prefer the larger villa option particularly as we get older (i.e. I'd go from loving our purchase to having serious regrets). Probably in the same way I'd have been annoyed if I'd been a VWL owner and then was suddenly sharing the resort space with new CCV members staying in accommodations unavailable to me at 11mos.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[jennypenny]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say people are missing some of the value in RIV, and therefore assuming a lower resale value going forward. I don't think the main selling point is proximity to Epcot. Having stayed mostly at BCV & BWV over the last 20 years, I think the difference is in the quality of the resorts themselves.

SAB notwithstanding, everything else about RIV is nicer, particularly the rooms. There is no comparison between the shower/tub combo and cramped pullout sofa set up in the studios with the rooms in RIV, and the 1/2 bedrooms seat more people in the LR (think of the tiny dining tables in BC and BW). The balconies at BCV can be non-existent with only single balconies in larger units unlike even the BW units. Even after the recent refurbs, the rooms at BCV and BWV look dated and the amenities are lacking, and I assume there won't be any significant improvements as we approach 2042 (except maybe to some common areas at BC). The rooms at RIV feel significantly bigger and definitely sleep more people comfortably.

There are also other improvements like having 1 1/2 decent QS options instead of either BC Marketplace (not great) or BW Bakery (decent but outdoors and potentially pretty far away). The skyliner is also faster than the boats if you're not a walker, and the shared busses to other parks can be slow and crowded. Martha's Vineyard is dated (as is Cape May Cafe tbh), and IMO the recent refurb to B & C took away some of the charm. On the BW side, Ample Hills is closed, the italian place is just ok (at least it hasn't closed already like Spoodles and Cat Cora's), and the pizza at the pizza window is adequate at best.

Don't get me wrong ... I *love* BCV (particularly SAB) and my kids love BWV. And it pains me to put BCV/BWV down in any way after years of wonderful vacations. But after staying at RIV we've decided that the amenities in the rooms outclass the BW area resorts to the point that we feel it offsets the skyliner dependence and point costs per night. We feel you get more for your points at RIV as far as the room and (most used) resort amenities. I don't think the point cost per night, while high, is totally out of line, and the one bedroom comfortably sleeps bigger families, potentially freeing up more studios available for rent.

The cost will be prohibitive to some people but I don't think buying resale and being 'stuck' at RIV will be the hardship everyone is assuming. If someone is used to traveling at non-Disney hotels, RIV comes the closest to what most people assume 'deluxe' means wrt a resort room.

 

[havoc315]

Well there has been more recent percentages done on number of resale listing and they map fairly well to size of resort as well. Smaller resorts get resold less often. I think the point to take away is there is not a huge turnover.

Also I don't think they are anywhere near capacity for DVC they may just need to change the target. I have brought it up before but they could build out a resort that is primarily made of value style room from AKV which means a lower cost and being able to target those who currently would stay at a Value Resort annually which could also be paired with a 5 year 0% interest loan possibly with tickets included during that period.

Agreed that "value DVC" might be a direction they ultimately go in, but there is no way they are going to offer unsecured 5 year 0% financing or anything close to it. That's a virtually guaranteed way for Disney to lose tons of money.

The selling point will be the low point cost of the rooms and therefore the lower necessary point investment -- A resort where rooms go for only 50 points per week.

We have possibly 5-6 resorts until they start reselling 2042 again:

Not a given that they will start reselling those 2042 resorts. Those resorts are built on the best real estate Disney has. Wouldn't be surprised, for example, to see the Boardwalk Inn and Villas mostly torn down and built back up from scratch into a premier DVC property opening in 2044. You could also see DVC expansion into the Asian and European parks.

 

[RoseGold]

Post-Covid, the convention centers might be in very different financial position.

If that's the case, BLT2 is going to look much better than the Contemporary conference center, which was pitched before Covid.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say people are missing some of the value in RIV, and therefore assuming a lower resale value going forward. I don't think the main selling point is proximity to Epcot. Having stayed mostly at BCV & BWV over the last 20 years, I think the difference is in the quality of the resorts themselves.

SAB notwithstanding, everything else about RIV is nicer, particularly the rooms. There is no comparison between the shower/tub combo and cramped pullout sofa set up in the studios with the rooms in RIV, and the 1/2 bedrooms seat more people in the LR (think of the tiny dining tables in BC and BW). The balconies at BCV can be non-existent with only single balconies in larger units unlike even the BW units. Even after the recent refurbs, the rooms at BCV and BWV look dated and the amenities are lacking, and I assume there won't be any significant improvements as we approach 2042 (except maybe to some common areas at BC). The rooms at RIV feel significantly bigger and definitely sleep more people comfortably.

There are also other improvements like having 1 1/2 decent QS options instead of either BC Marketplace (not great) or BW Bakery (decent but outdoors and potentially pretty far away). The skyliner is also faster than the boats if you're not a walker, and the shared busses to other parks can be slow and crowded. Martha's Vineyard is dated (as is Cape May Cafe tbh), and IMO the recent refurb to B & C took away some of the charm. On the BW side, Ample Hills is closed, the italian place is just ok (at least it hasn't closed already like Spoodles and Cat Cora's), and the pizza at the pizza window is adequate at best.

Don't get me wrong ... I *love* BCV (particularly SAB) and my kids love BWV. And it pains me to put BCV/BWV down in any way after years of wonderful vacations. But after staying at RIV we've decided that the amenities in the rooms outclass the BW area resorts to the point that we feel it offsets the skyliner dependence and point costs per night. We feel you get more for your points at RIV as far as the room and (most used) resort amenities. I don't think the point cost per night, while high, is totally out of line, and the one bedroom comfortably sleeps bigger families, potentially freeing up more studios available for rent.

The cost will be prohibitive to some people but I don't think buying resale and being 'stuck' at RIV will be the hardship everyone is assuming. If someone is used to traveling at non-Disney hotels, RIV comes the closest to what most people assume 'deluxe' means wrt a resort room.

Buyibg resale there does not prevent anyone from adding other resorts that have L14 trading rights

So it’s not an either or situation. Of course the restrictions will certainly shrink the pool of interested buyers but even the small sample shows that there are some out there. And they are paying a decent price IMO for such a different product.

 

[Spark65]

Buyibg resale there does not prevent anyone from adding other resorts that have L14 trading rights

So it’s not an either or situation. Of course the restrictions will certainly shrink the pool of interested buyers but even the small sample shows that there are some out there. And they are paying a decent price IMO for such a different product.

How many know that getting RIV at 7 months won't happen buying resale now. This lessens the amount of people you have to beat to opening day when booking ... another advantage for many.

 

[Wedgeout]

Because of that restriction, don’t buy because you think you will ever make your money back. I predict its resale bottom is going to eventually drop out like a stock market crash. Disney got their original buy in purchase chunk. They won’t care while they are still selling new direct points. A cheap contract that you won’t even have to worry about needing to match up your UY. Call it your Riviera staycation account.

 

[jennypenny]

I don't think the point cost per night, while high, is totally out of line, and the one bedroom comfortably sleeps bigger families, potentially freeing up more studios available for rent.

Someone asked me about this, and when I looked I realized I didn't explain what I meant.

One of the things I like about Riviera is that the one bedroom unit feels more like a step between the studio and the two bedroom. The occupancy isn't higher, but it has more space for when the kiddos are bigger. Our family of five would have progressed from the studio to the one bedroom and then to the two bedroom instead of making the leap right to the two bedroom. At a lot of the other resorts, even if the one bedroom sleeps five officially, it's still really tight (except for BLT -- another step-up-like one bedroom unit).

Having a more useful one bedroom means that more families might book it, freeing up more studios since they won't be used as part of two bedroom bookings. It also makes it less expensive for families to upgrade to a bigger room without having to pay for a two bedroom (which is always more expensive than just booking two studios).

Studios are at such a premium now I don't understand why Disney doesn't make the one bedroom units more of a bridge between studios and two bedrooms. I would think it would encourage more add-ons as families grew, but I'm sure Disney has their reasons. They always do.