Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[ClemTig]

DVC sales are really about the economy. If it’s doing well and the stock market is up, they sell well. If the economy slumps... look at 2008. Grim times for DVC.

I’ll be buying Reflections. I don’t want access “hanging by a wire”. I’ll take a boat, thank you very much.

 

[Rozzie]

Prospective buyers: If you love what you see at Riviera, you should buy there. Ten years from now, you'll be a lot happier doing so than spending time today handwringing about what might happen tomorrow. Most owners don't think about what they paid X years ago for their contracts. They're too busy just enjoying them.

This.

We bought RIV, well because we want to stay at RIV. No spreadsheets, no sleepless nights of walking at 7 months.
DVC owner since 2005. . It's how we roll.

 

[Dizzydizney]

This.

We bought RIV, well because we want to stay at RIV. No spreadsheets, no sleepless nights of walking at 7 months.
DVC owner since 2005. . It's how we roll.

Exactly! getting too old for that! Congrats!

 

[Wakey]

I think DVC sales could be in trouble.

According to the DVC News articles published every month, from July to November (I think Copper Creek sales began to wind down in June?) sales declined from the previous year by double digit numbers. Every single month.

In the great fanfare of RIV being opened in December, it understandably had a good month, and DVC sales were up over 4%.

But DVC sales in January 2020 were again 12.9% down on January 2019.

So in 7 months, apart from a modest rise in December, sales are down double digits for 7 months.

I don’t have access to cost, and margin though so not clear if margins are up or down.

I read Riviera sold a lot of points compared to other resorts in their first year, but it went on sale March and by July Copper Creek was winding down with 54000 points sales. By August Copper Creek was down to 28,000 and September only 17,000 Copper Creek were sold and DVC News reported that generally DVC sales were now slowing. This coincides basically with Copper Creek selling out. The year on year monthly decline of double digits directly coordinated with Copper Creek running down from June and Riviera taking its place.

Compare how Riviera has had so few competing ‘new’ points at an alternative resort available in its first year to Copper Creek which also went on sale in March - but this time March 2017. In August 2017 a huge 114000 points were still sold at the still available Poly, 93,000 in September at Poly, 83,000 in October at Poly, 85,000 at Poly in November, 68,000 in December at Poly and 103,000 in January 2018. It goes on. In other words for Copper Creek, and I haven’t looked but suspect Poly before it, huge numbers of new sales were going to competing legacy ‘new’ resorts whilst the brand new resort was in its first year of sale.

So buyers of Riviera have had less alternative choice, for longer. So if new sales on the face of it for Riviera were not looking strong, then something would be seriously wrong- it did not have the same competition for customers in its first year.

But as I say above, month on month sales compared to 12 months ago are significantly down.

I do not think we have yet seen how this story will play out.

 

[ClemTig]

I think DVC sales could be in trouble....
I do not think we have yet seen how this story will play out.

Interesting analysis. I’d venture a guess and say 12.9% of potential “add on” customers are ticked off by resale restrictions, but it’s only a guess. I think the Feb/March numbers will tell us a lot after the recent price hikes.

 

[Wakey]

Interesting analysis. I’d venture a guess and say 12.9% of potential “add on” customers are ticked off by resale restrictions, but it’s only a guess. I think the Feb/March numbers will tell us a lot after the recent price hikes.

I think Feb and March will also be down on last year.

Basically number of points sold are on course for a double digit percentage dip over a 12 month period, unless something turns around, and fast.

If correct, that on the face of it looks very bad. But business is generally measured on profit- have DVD modeled this and are perfectly happy with profit growth? Who knows, but even if GM is much higher on RIV than other resorts, it seems that there is a big fall in points sold on the new resorts where GM is at its highest and I would be surprised if any build savings would make up that fall.

Interestingly we also see large numbers of old sold out resorts being sold- SSR had a cracking month. Possibly indicates people are shifting to non restricted points to add on, even when they are buying direct?

Maybe having two alternate new resorts on sale at once with a big overlap drives more sales generally, but suspect that doesn’t have a massive influence.

What seems to be clear is that RIV is not doing the job of attracting in sales lost from the same time last year. Thus DVC new customers, assuming they are measured by points sold, however they are being lost are substantially down and not buying.

 

[vnovabri]

That's a pretty big overreaction from one statistic. Sales at Riviera have been increasing each month with January being the highest. They've sold over a million so far....statistics can be taken out of context to prove anyone's point so I'm not going to get into a battle using different statistics to counter any negative use of them. But as others have said, time will tell but from all accounts sales are doing just fine.

 

[ClemTig]

I want to expand on my comment about Feb/Mar stats telling us a lot- I think December and January benefitted from this being a spanking new resort unveiled to the public, and the known coming price hike was also used to drive sales. February and March will not have those benefits. It is possible that sales will drop significantly. I think the economy bails out DVC sales to a large extent. If people feel boosted by the economy and recent stock market gains they are more likely to spend for this truly discretionary expense. So I am very interested in the next 2 sales points- from a purely selfish standpoint. I want these resale restrictions withdrawn on all future resorts. I want DVC to fail miserably on this. So far that hasn't been the case.

 

[sky2823]

I agree that sales are NOT where Disney wants them to be...

I agree that numbers can be shown in a number of ways to make someone’s point

No competing resorts, booming economy, resort opening.... this is the bare minimum that they had to expect for the opening months

“Good” is a failure in this economy for DVC


Riviera
most expensive new resort + high point charts + large supply of points + bad location + low theming + sales restrictions + huge transport variable = only decent numbers with no competing resorts in the best economy in decades and strong incentives

If this same resort was on the monorail or walking to Epcot and had no restrictions, it would be selling OFF the charts.

Markets are effiicient. This resorts sales will run out of steam quickly and is hugely vulnerable to any economic issue.

At that point look for restrictions to be lifted and Disney to try and get sales across the the finish line on fumes before Reflections is in full swing

Just my opinion. I am wrong a lot...

 

[Sandisw]

I want to expand on my comment about Feb/Mar stats telling us a lot- I think December and January benefitted from this being a spanking new resort unveiled to the public, and the known coming price hike was also used to drive sales. February and March will not have those benefits. It is possible that sales will drop significantly. I think the economy bails out DVC sales to a large extent. If people feel boosted by the economy and recent stock market gains they are more likely to spend for this truly discretionary expense. So I am very interested in the next 2 sales points- from a purely selfish standpoint. I want these resale restrictions withdrawn on all future resorts. I want DVC to fail miserably on this. So far that hasn't been the case.

I agree it will help to give us an even better figure. I still wonder...and it’s something we don’t know...is what Disney’s expectations were going in with a product so different than before.

It is a big experiment. So, yes, the sales from a year ago were down, but Dec 2019 was best for sales in 7 or 8 years?

Given the restriction, Disney may have only been hoping to see it stay competitive with previous years and by the way I view the numbers...especially that it’s 10 month average is higher..it looks pretty good,

I also think one would expect the first resort of its kind being sold to take a bit of a dip. When Reflections comes on board with the same restrictions, it wont be as big of a deal as we know it’s going to be the new norm,

But, Disney gave themselves an out if this failed miserably, which leads me to believe they went in with lower than normal expectations for sales and were willing to gamble.

The more I read, the more I am convinced that once RIV resale contracts begin to show up in bulk, they will come up with a program that says if you buy a set of matching direct points, your resale points will now become valid everywhere. You own 100 RIV resale? Buy 100 direct and guess what, you can use those RIV points elsewhere now too.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree that sales are NOT where Disney wants them to be...

I agree that numbers can be shown in a number of ways to make someone’s point

No competing resorts, booming economy, resort opening.... this is the bare minimum that they had to expect for the opening months

“Good” is a failure in this economy for DVC


Riviera
most expensive new resort + high point charts + large supply of points + bad location + low theming + sales restrictions + huge transport variable = only decent numbers with no competing resorts in the best economy in decades and strong incentives

If this same resort was on the monorail or walking to Epcot and had no restrictions, it would be selling OFF the charts.

Markets are effiicient. This resorts sales will run out of steam quickly and is hugely vulnerable to any economic issue.

At that point look for restrictions to be lifted and Disney to try and get sales across the the finish line on fumes before Reflections is in full swing

Just my opinion. I am wrong a lot...

Sales are strong enough to keep restrictions in place. I can’t believe Disney doesn’t look at long game and it’s 10 month average is good...which I bet is the one they use to calm fears of anyone concerned...it’s holding it’s own.

 

[vnovabri]

Riviera
most expensive new resort + high point charts + large supply of points + bad location + low theming + sales restrictions + huge transport variable = only decent numbers with no competing resorts in the best economy in decades and strong incentives

That is sort of my point, a lot of it has to do with personal preference. I can pretty much take everything you see as a negative and see it as a positive or at least that its a non-factor.

most expensive new resort (newest resort with longest contract) + high point charts (on par with other high end resorts like GF and has great bedroom layout options) + large supply of points (not sure the point here) + bad location (great location with proximity and views of fireworks for HS and Epcot) + low theming (beautiful decoration great restaurants) + sales restrictions (not buying to resell) + huge transport variable (amazing walk free quick travel to 2/4 parks)

everyone will have their own opinion and that is fine. That is what makes different resort options great.

 

[Soap_1984]

It is funny to me how current Riv owners on the board want the sales to be great; they'd rather validate their own purchase than have poor sales, despite the fact that poor sales might force disney to lift the restrictions, which in turn would increase the value of their purchase.

If I was a current owner I'd be hoping for poor sales but I apparently know nothing.

I am done with dvc now as a buyer. I can't support a company that has created a good product and then consistently made it worse while charging more. I've never experienced such a thing in my life; they actively want what you own to be worthless so they have the control to squeeze a few more dollars out of you.

Congrats to Disney they need the money more than the individual buyer; hard times for them.

 

[ClemTig]

...
But, Disney gave themselves an out if this failed miserably, which leads me to believe they went in with lower than normal expectations for sales and were willing to gamble.
...

Well, profit can be boosted through this program in the long run, as they will buy buy much cheaper with the ROFR purchases. That is "easy" hidden profit that requires no work. They just take it out of the seller's pocket, so to speak.

I also wonder if, rather than "selling" an upgrade to resale points, they just start buying up all of the resale properties with the ROFR and make us buy direct for the unrestricted points.

 

[Sandisw]

Well, profit can be boosted through this program in the long run, as they will buy buy much cheaper with the ROFR purchases. That is "easy" hidden profit that requires no work. They just take it out of the seller's pocket, so to speak.

I also wonder if, rather than "selling" an upgrade to resale points, they just start buying up all of the resale properties with the ROFR and make us buy direct for the unrestricted points.

Hmm...didn’t think of that. Yeah..that could be the plan too! I mean if we see, once it’s considered sold out a more than 50% reduction resale,..I can see them snatching up to keep the resale owners to a minimum..

Oh, how I wish I could be a fly on the wall in the meetings before they made this move and now!

 

[vnovabri]

It is funny to me how current Riv owners on the board want the sales to be great; they'd rather validate their own purchase than have poor sales, despite the fact that poor sales might force disney to lift the restrictions, which in turn would increase the value of their purchase.

If I was a current owner I'd be hoping for poor sales but I apparently know nothing.

I am done with dvc now as a buyer. I can't support a company that has created a good product and then consistently made it worse while charging more. I've never experienced such a thing in my life; they actively want what you own to be worthless so they have the control to squeeze a few more dollars out of you.

Congrats to Disney they need the money more than the individual buyer; hard times for them.

For the record I dont own RIV but its also funny how bias people can be the other way just basically just because they arent happy about restrictions on resales. Itll be interesting to see if those people are still sour grapes when the next couple resorts roll out with the same restrictions.

 

[RivShore]

I think DVC sales could be in trouble.

According to the DVC News articles published every month, from July to November (I think Copper Creek sales began to wind down in June?) sales declined from the previous year by double digit numbers. Every single month.

In the great fanfare of RIV being opened in December, it understandably had a good month, and DVC sales were up over 4%.

But DVC sales in January 2020 were again 12.9% down on January 2019.

So in 7 months, apart from a modest rise in December, sales are down double digits for 7 months.

I don’t have access to cost, and margin though so not clear if margins are up or down.

I read Riviera sold a lot of points compared to other resorts in their first year, but it went on sale March and by July Copper Creek was winding down with 54000 points sales. By August Copper Creek was down to 28,000 and September only 17,000 Copper Creek were sold and DVC News reported that generally DVC sales were now slowing. This coincides basically with Copper Creek selling out. The year on year monthly decline of double digits directly coordinated with Copper Creek running down from June and Riviera taking its place.

Compare how Riviera has had so few competing ‘new’ points at an alternative resort available in its first year to Copper Creek which also went on sale in March - but this time March 2017. In August 2017 a huge 114000 points were still sold at the still available Poly, 93,000 in September at Poly, 83,000 in October at Poly, 85,000 at Poly in November, 68,000 in December at Poly and 103,000 in January 2018. It goes on. In other words for Copper Creek, and I haven’t looked but suspect Poly before it, huge numbers of new sales were going to competing legacy ‘new’ resorts whilst the brand new resort was in its first year of sale.

So buyers of Riviera have had less alternative choice, for longer. So if new sales on the face of it for Riviera were not looking strong, then something would be seriously wrong- it did not have the same competition for customers in its first year.

But as I say above, month on month sales compared to 12 months ago are significantly down.

I do not think we have yet seen how this story will play out.

A few thoughts - What was the average point cost last year, from a dollar standpoint? If point costs have increased 13%, total sales revenue would be even year on year.

The Jan. sales would represent only half a month of the resort being open so, as noted above by others, the next few months would tell more of the story.

We don't know what DVC's expectations were for sales but you would think they would have taken the differences into account when setting sales expectations. RIV is a much different product than the two that you are comparing it to - not just the resale restrictions but CCV and Poly were parts of much loved resorts that already had a backlog of fans ready to buy. Also RIV had a new unproven transportation system vs. the monorail and boats.

 

[sky2823]

Riviera is twice the size of CCV. Twice as many points. Time will work against RIV.

DVC wants capital projects on a time cycle. RIV needs to be selling well ahead of CCV or it will directly compete with Reflections unless they slow the launch or Reflections.

Nothing in these numbers makes me feel Disney is happy with RIV sales at this point.

it might be a “lets not panic” but its not a home run by any stretch and they know reflections is looming

 

[ClemTig]

Riviera is twice the size of CCV. Twice as many points. Time will work against RIV.

DVC wants capital projects on a time cycle. RIV needs to be selling well ahead of CCV or it will directly compete with Reflections unless they slow the launch or Reflections.

Nothing in these numbers makes me feel Disney is happy with RIV sales at this point.

it might be a “lets not panic” but its not a home run by any stretch and they know reflections is looming

I highly doubt they slow the launch on Reflections. That would cost money as well. They can always run specials to non-DVC vacationers to rent out unsold RIV units to offset slow sales (if sales are indeed slow).

 

[RivShore]

Riviera is twice the size of CCV. Twice as many points. Time will work against RIV.

DVC wants capital projects on a time cycle. RIV needs to be selling well ahead of CCV or it will directly compete with Reflections unless they slow the launch or Reflections.

Nothing in these numbers makes me feel Disney is happy with RIV sales at this point.

it might be a “lets not panic” but its not a home run by any stretch and they know reflections is looming

They are two very different resorts so I don't think DVC would have any issues selling both at the same time - MK vs. Ep/HS, boat vs. skyliner, self contained resort vs. spread out., completely different themes, etc. etc. And don't forget there will always be demand at RIV for any Ep festivals.