The actual restart date will be....(according to us)...Poll!

We are really cruising in __________now!

  • November 2020

  • December 2020

  • January 2021

  • February 2021

  • March 2021

  • April 2021

  • May 2021

  • Summer 2021 June-Aug

  • Fall 2021 Sept-

  • 2022


Results are only viewable after voting.
I voted for April 2021.

If there's a vaccine before end of year ... distribution will likely start in the US in late January ... which means IMO - April makes sense.

I wonder if it will be a prerequisite ... or you'll need to produce a negative test result or something like that.

Just a guess.

Let's see.
 


Wait, what? You can still fly from Canada to Florida?
Yes, it's only the land border that we are not allowed to cross. Canadians have always been allowed to fly into the US and Mexico this entire pandemic (not the same for US citizens who can still fly into Mexico but cannot fly into Canada except under very strict circumstances). But again, we've got a mandatory 14 day quarantine waiting for us so yeah....we're not going anywhere til that is lifted, sigh.
 


I think DCL specifically will sail by March, because they really don't want to have any cases and they're going to want to be more cautious than other cruise lines. In March I think they'll sail with precautions (mask wearing, social distancing, etc) and I think by Fall or Winter 2021 DCL will sail like normal.
 
Much earlier in this thread, I mentioned the changing tide in Europe of learning to live with the virus, and that I think the U.S. isn't far behind, including some buzz beginning in our media. I think this will lead to cruising in the U.S. sooner rather than later.

Look what just landed in the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/world/europe/coronavirus-europe.html

It's a great article. I highly recommend reading it in full. But here are a few relevant excerpts:

In the early days of the pandemic, President Emmanuel Macron exhorted the French to wage “war” against the coronavirus. Today, his message is to “learn how to live with the virus.”
. . .
Having abandoned hopes of eradicating the virus or developing a vaccine within weeks, Europeans have largely gone back to work and school, leading lives as normally as possible amid an enduring pandemic that has already killed nearly 215,000 in Europe.
. . .
“We are in a living-with-the-virus phase,” said Roberto Speranza, the health minister of Italy, the first country in Europe to impose a national lockdown. In an interview with La Stampa newspaper, Mr. Speranza said that though a “zero infection rate does not exist,” Italy was now far better equipped to handle a surge in infections. “There is not going to be another lockdown,” Mr. Speranza said.

To be fair, the article discusses mask wearing, distancing, tracing, and even restricted Christmas events and the like. But I continue to think we will are starting the transition into the live-with-it-phase, which will mean cruises resume with precautions. Even with today's cancellations, I keep my prediction at January 2021, while recognizing that I may be a bit optimistic, but I will be shocked if it is later than spring 2021.
 
I used “change vote” Button and changed my original optimism from November to January, but suspect Disney will actually be longer.
I felt Disney’s Galveston port visit showed promise for the Wonder. Especially since they would only be sailing there through mid to late January. But on the other hand Port Canaveral said they expected no sailing in 2020 so that gave me less hope. Somehow I must have missed all news for Miami port. Anybody got anything?
With more medical people stating it’s a two shot vaccine process and CDC announcing an expected delivery date of summer through fall 2021. Although I absolutely believe cruising could happen before summer 2021 if the crew could be vaccinated. And it would make sense if they were able to get vaccinated by “emergency dose“ because the cruise business could fail without some sort of help. I support those people who choose not to get a vaccine even though they put others at risk (me included). But sure would make it safer for passengers if the ship crew was vaccinated.
 
With the CDC making an announcement that America should have enough doses of the vaccine by late Q2 2021 or early 3Q 2021, it very well may be until late summer until sailings resume.

That is, if they decide to wait and sail until there is a vaccine.
 
I see news of another cruise that is going to be happening in October 21. Jericho cruise if anyone has ever heard of it. It's just a cruise with pro wrestling and concerts. Seeing the announcements for that makes me feel optimistic about cruising resuming by fall.
 
With the CDC making an announcement that America should have enough doses of the vaccine by late Q2 2021 or early 3Q 2021, it very well may be until late summer until sailings resume.

That is, if they decide to wait and sail until there is a vaccine.

I thought that too but then they said first responders would start getting it by Nov this year. Most first responders are also leisure travelers as well. I know from personal experience. So there will be a sizeable portion of America who is vaccinated well before Summer of next year. There are Fire Dept in my area who have already received the Pfizer Covid vaccine and have been vaccinated.
 
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They actually cancelled through Dec. 12 (Fantasy)
Yep, I have a cruise scheduled for Dec 12-19 a 7 night Eastern Caribbean. No way that Disney starts out cruising on a 7 night cruise. I could see a 3 or 4 night, but not a 7 night. Or they really want that Christmas season in tact?
 
I voted fall 2021 to Sept. 20202 based entirely on the latest computer models showing the infection rate projected in January 2021 to be double what August was, and August had a record number of infections nationally.

"Infections" occur when someone catches the virus. "Cases" occur when an infected individual is tested and confirmed to have been infected. The US testing capacity in August was about 6X what it was in the spring. August did not have a record number of "infections" or "cases." According to IHME, peak "infections" in the US were 282 thousand on March 29. The summer peak "infections" were about 157 thousand on July 18. The current "infection" rate was estimated at 154 thousand yesterday. "Cases" (confirmed infections) peaked July 24.

Having said that, a cruise ship is one of the more likely environments for a virus to spread. So, I think the fall 2021 return date is as good as any.
 
If cruising does start before a vaccine, here's my worry.

Will other counties allow US citizens into their country.

I'm sure the Sturgis motorcycle rally made the news all around the world. Crowded bars while colleges open back up, crowded beaches before summer is over. A wedding here in MN had 275 guests, not socially distancing, not wearing masks and 56 people came down with COVID-19 directly related to the wedding. There are many other stories like this every day in the news.

Too many people are not taking this seriously, not following precautions to slow it down. Why would other countries allow us to disembark?

I voted for March 2021. I hope that with so many labs in so many countries working on a vaccine; there will be a vaccine by the end of 2020. And they will be able to produce enough of it and they will come up with a method to distribute it globally for this to happen.

The virus is making a huge resurgence in Europe. For example, France is experiencing a much higher number of cases now than they did during the spring. Ditto Spain. Ditto the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, Israel is experiencing per capita new cases at 3.5-4 times the rate of the US.

Maybe people "not taking it seriously" in the US is not unique? Maybe "taking it seriously" isn't really the issue?
 
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"Infections" occur when someone catches the virus. "Cases" occur when an infected individual is tested and confirmed to have been infected. The US testing capacity in August was about 6X what it was in the spring. August did not have a record number of "infections" or "cases." According to IHME, peak "infections" in the US were 282 thousand on March 29. The summer peak "infections" were about 157 thousand on July 18. The current "infection" rate was estimated at 154 thousand yesterday. "Cases" (confirmed infections) peaked July 24.

Having said that, a cruise ship is one of the more likely environments for a virus to spread. So, I think the fall 2021 return date is as good as any.
I don't know, IHME charts show March was a quiet month for deaths but deaths have been steadily increasing every day since April. They are predicting deaths to soar in January 2021 https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
 
I don't know, IHME charts show March was a quiet month for deaths but deaths have been steadily increasing every day since April. They are predicting deaths to soar in January 2021 https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

According to the link, worldwide daily deaths peaked at 7,517 on April 13. They estimate 5,842 deaths for today. They do predict deaths to soar in December, but do not yet show any projections for dates past January 1.

Closer to my home (in the US), daily deaths also peaked in April (April 16) at 2,312. More recently, deaths have been running about 900 per day. They are projecting an early December peak of about 3,100 per day, but don't yet provide any projections past January 1.
 
According to the link, worldwide daily deaths peaked at 7,517 on April 13. They estimate 5,842 deaths for today. They do predict deaths to soar in December, but do not yet show any projections for dates past January 1.

Closer to my home (in the US), daily deaths also peaked in April (April 16) at 2,312. More recently, deaths have been running about 900 per day. They are projecting an early December peak of about 3,100 per day, but don't yet provide any projections past January 1.

We should at least be skeptical of projections that predict major deaths in the next few months (some exceeding what we saw in the spring). I'm not saying it won't happen, but I do think there is an incentive for models to make projections outside of reasonable expectations, since they get the most attention from the media. Neil Ferguson, in the UK, predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. He is now making the rounds predicting massive new deaths. He has a terrible track record - predicting 150 million would die from bird flu, when it turned out to be several hundred. He repeats this pattern over and over anytime a new disease on the horizon. Therefore, I believe skepticism is warranted.

If Europe holds in its current pattern, in the U.S., I expect to see spots of significant new cases, but fairly lower death-rates compared to what we saw in the spring. I hope increasing cases doesn't result in cruise lines pulling back from finding ways to operate.
 
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