6 Days to Go (I will run a sub-3 hour marathon and qualify for Boston!)
Date - Day - Scheduled Workout (Intervals within desired pace)
9/19/17 - T - 2 mile WU + 6 x 1 miles @ 6:41 min/mile w/ 0.25 mile RI @ WU + 2 mile CD (5/6)
9/20/17 - W - 6 miles @ 8:04-9:01 min/mile
9/21/17 - R - 3 mile WU + 10 miles @ 6:58 min/mile + 2 mile CD (*Effort)
9/22/17 - F - 6 miles @ 8:04-9:01 min/mile
9/23/17 - Sat - 6 miles @ 8:04-9:01 min/mile
9/24/17 - Sun - 8 miles @ 7:35 min/mile (*Effort)
9/25/17 - M - OFF
9/26/17 - T - 3 mile WU + 6x400 @ CV w/ 200m RI @ WU + 2 mile CD
9/27/17 - W - 7 miles @ 8:04-9:01 min/mile
9/28/17 - R - 6 miles @ 8:04-9:01 min/mile
9/29/17 - F - 5 miles @ 8:04-9:01 min/mile
9/30/17 - Sat - 3 miles @ 8:04-9:01 min/mile
10/1/17 - Sun - Victory Lap
Total (training) mileage = 51.4 + 27.4 (scheduled) miles
Number of SOS intervals within pace = 5/6 (83%)
Tuesday was the last HM Tempo run.
1.5 mile WU + 6 x 1 mile @ HM Tempo w/ 0.25 mile RI + 1.5 CD
T+D of 143 (what....), sunny (what...), and 9mph wind.
HM Tempo Pace = 6:41 min/mile
HM Tempo Window = +/- 10 seconds (6:31-6:51)
Thanks to Keith, I was introduced to Stravistix which provides a plethora of new data to comb over post-run and evaluate training in the long term. Given the information I had, I hemmed and hawed about upcoming options for the last few days. I wanted to balance how I felt with what the data was saying. Unsurprisingly to me, I am entering the Neutral Zone here at the tail end of training. Between the excessive recovery week, the two SOS instead of three, and the charley horse, the training was derailed a tad here at the end. Although I have still slowly been gaining fitness (woot woot). Since I decided not to do the 20 mile LR last Sunday as originally scheduled (which the 12 mile LR bared that out as a good choice), then I needed to add back in some stimulus at the tail end. So I evaluated the last couple weeks of data and learned that there was a pretty consistent effect on Fitness and Fatigue based on the type of workout done. I tried to use that predictive measure to see if I could guess what different taper scenarios would have on the final race day numbers. Discussion here (with some follow up posts):
https://www.disboards.com/threads/t...mments-welcome.3475601/page-120#post-58218907
So based on the data, I decided to go with a 6x1 mile at HM Tempo. I pre-predicted the TRIMP would be 167, Fitness post would be 112.0 and Fatigue 118.5. This was based on a 1.4% increase in fitness and 9.5% increase in Fatigue. So what were the real numbers? Wait and see.
HM Tempo = 6:41, 6:41, 6:43, 6:52, 6:44, 6:42
My Form before the run this morning was a +14 (+2 yesterday during the off day), but the +14 assumed I was having another off day today. The dynamic WU felt good but not great. The WU got started late because of a missed button push, so I just went with 1.5 miles (even though I did 2). The first interval was completely comfortable. But the 2nd and 3rd were quite easy and comfortable. Lots of holding back. A good sign given the scores from Stravistix as things seem to line up with how I feel. Went for the hill on #4 and was barely off pacing. Five and six were back to flat and while not completely easy, they were still doable and I was rarely if ever pushing to stay within window. Final average pace was 6:44 with 5/6 intervals hit.
TRIMP was 179 (predicted 167, so pretty close)
Fitness was 112.0 after run (exactly as predicted)
Fatigue was 117.6 after run (118.5 was predicted, so pretty close again)
Form predicted was -5.6 after run (-6.6 was predicted, so pretty close again)
All in all the predictions weren't perfect, but pretty darn close.
The takeaway from today's run. A T+D of 143 felt reasonably comfortable at HM Tempo of 6:41 on a flat surface (although I did enjoy the resting breaks). The long range weather forecast for Lakefront Marathon morning is a T+D of 80-88. The weather model is showing the same thing history tends to show for these two weekends. A peak in temps this week (it's 90 on Wednesday and Thursday) and then a sudden drop in temperature. Fingers crossed history and the long range can come true because I can fly in sub 100 T+D.
Wednesday was an easy day. T+D of 158... say WHAT?!?!, cloudy, and light wind. Yikes! Average pace was a 9:16 min/mile and HR was 128.
Thursday was the last max M Tempo run.
Now that the swim is over, it's time for a run...
T+D of 133-138, cloudy, no wind
M Tempo pace - 6:58min/mile
M Tempo window - +/- 10 seconds (6:48-7:08)
Knew going into this was not going to be the ideal last max M Tempo run. But you can't control the weather. I knew I had 0 heat acclimation from the past few weeks so this sudden jump in temps was going to make a big difference on my perception of effort to pace relationship. I decided to split the difference and just run what felt comfortable. It was interesting because at some points I hit small pockets of cool weather and suddenly the pace picked up.
M Tempo - 7:21, 7:19, 7:26, 7:28, 6:59, 7:31, 7:26, 7:35, 7:17, 7:16
Overall, not how I'd like to end the training session, but it is what it is. If race day were 140s, then sure this would be relatively predictive of race day. But as of right now, we're looking at 40s (T+D less than 100) for race day. So not concerned about today's run.
Predicted TRIMP = 247
Actual TRIMP = 236
Predicted Fitness = 114.4
Actual Fitness = 114.1
Predicted Fatigue = 130.7
Actual Fatigue = 128.6
Predicted Form = -16.4
Actual Form = -14.5
Not bad on the predicted vs actual. The Fitness of 114.1 is the highest recorded, so that would indicate I'm indeed at peak fitness. For reference, my 5k PR of 19:30 was done with a Fitness of 97.8 (with a value of 102 a few days before). When I started running again post Dopey (Jan 2016) my fitness was 64. Fitness at Dopey 2017 falls pretty close to that 42 day window so hard to say definitively, but probably around 80s.
1912 days down and 10 to go....
On Friday I got stopped by a neighbor who lost a dog. I took the pace down a notch and turned the music off. I ran around my normal neighborhood route, but unfortunately I never heard or saw the dog. Thankfully, the next morning the "lost dog" signs were gone so hoping that's a good sign. T+D of 153, cloudy, 8mph wind. Average pace was 9:24 min/mile and HR of 129.
Saturday was another easy day. I slept 9:44 hours and had just over 5 hours of deep sleep. Trying to keep the sleep duration up high in this last week or so to induce recovery. T+D of 141, cloudy and 7 mph wind. Average pace was 8:48 and HR of 132. The run felt pretty good. There were bits and pieces that felt like the peak was returning.
Sunday
1915 days down and 7 days to go...
T+D of 144, sunny, and no wind
Still trying to balance fitness and fatigue going into the last week of training before the marathon. So I had 12 miles at LR on the schedule for today. As the run progressed, I could tell the T+D was a little higher than I anticipated. Last night I had seen it at 133-135, but I didn't check this morning.
Long Run pace = 7:35 min/mile
Long Run window = +/- 10 seconds
Adjustment for T+D = 7:51-7:54 min/mile
The run started with me intending on trying to hit pace (7:35). The first two miles were fine, but by the 3rd I could tell the effort was off for a "long run". It felt like I was pushing a bit too hard to hit that 7:35 pace. I decided to do something I normally don't and looked at my HR for confirmation of effort being off. It was about 147-148 when I looked and knew that historical is 138-142. Thus, the HR confirmed what I was feeling. I was pushing too hard. So for the last 4 miles I decided to pull back and run by effort. What did "long run" feel like. This came out around 7:48-7:54 and felt more comfortable. I couldn't remember what my goal T+D adjusted pace was suppose to be. So it was a nice confirmation of effort to see that it was 7:51-7:54 given the T+D. Because I had pushed too hard on the first three, I decided that I'd call the run early in the name of maintaining fitness.
Now this would be the point where I'd start to freak out about the race. Things haven't been going as well lately. Missed pacing, cutting some runs short, just doesn't feel like I could hit race day pace... But that's just it. Things aren't the same as they were during the peak of training. The mileage has dropped and thus my body is in recovery mode. The body is focused on repair and not on pacing. More importantly, the T+D has gone up significantly in the last few weeks. I had been spoiled with T+D in the 90-110 range and more lately it has been T+D of 130-160. So that'll certainly make a difference with a sudden change in temps as I've likely lost most of my heat acclimation from earlier in the summer. Given the race morning is still around T+D 80-100, I'm still confident things will feel normal in no time.
Still to come:
Tuesday will be the last workout of substance. A pretty simple run of 3 mile WU + 6x400 @ CV w/ 200m RI @ WU + 2 mile CD. The goal is just to keep the legs fresh and not get stale. This should be a fairly minimal difficulty run.
Tuesday will also represent the beginning of the Beet-It Sports Shots pre-race loading procedure. I'll take one shot on Tuesday and then take two on each of the subsequent days leading up to the race.
Secondarily, I'll be following the same Western Australian carb loading procedure I've been following for the last couple of marathons. That will happen on Saturday. I'll cover that later in the week.
In addition, I'll go over the race strategy and summarize the training cycle later in the week.
Lastly, the total mileage of Tuesday, Wed, Thurs, Fri, and Sat is 27 miles. This represents 42% of the peak week mileage (2 weeks ago). According to meta-data research the optimal taper week mileage (not including the marathon) is between 40-60% of peak week.
The prediction contest is also now closed so here are the final predictions (a lot of players this year):
Current Predictions
2:48:10 - Jax (Baby Nephew)
2:54:41 - Josh (BIL)
2:55:00 - Barb (GMIL)
2:56:34 - Cassie (Sister)
2:57:00 - Steph (Wife)
2:57:27 -
@kywyldcat03
2:57:33 - Juli (co-worker)
2:58:00 - Harry (GFIL)
2:58:03 - Carol (Mom)
2:58:13 -
@dmross
2:58:18 - Brian (BIL)
2:58:30 -
@JClimacus
2:58:41 - Mark (co-worker)
2:58:46 -
@run.minnie.miles
2:58:58 - Bethany (co-worker)
2:59:00 -
@BikeFan
2:59:22 - Bradley (co-worker)
2:59:31 -
@PCFriar80
2:59:32 - Gary (co-worker)
2:59:39 -
@ZellyB
2:59:47 - Keith (Strava)
2:59:48 -
@pixarmom
2:59:50 -
@mrsg00fy
2:59:51 -
@BrianFromIreland
2:59:56 -
@Dopeyintraining
2:59:57 -
@Dis5150
2:59:58 -
@Anisum
2:59:59 -
@sourire
3:00:01 -
@rteetz
3:00:03 -
@disneydaydreamer33
3:00:17 - Gary (Strava)
3:00:21 -
@garneska
3:00:26 -
@michigandergirl
3:00:29 -
@FFigawi
3:00:47 - Cyndi (MIL)
3:01:20 -
@FredtheDuck
3:01:28 - Gigi (3yr old daughter)
3:01:55 -
@OldSlowGoofyGuy
3:02:17 -
@MissLiss279
3:02:30 -
@roxymama
3:02:52 -
@canglim52
3:02:53 -
@dancingtodisney
3:03:00 - Gerhard (FIL)
3:03:33 - Logan (co-worker)
3:03:59 - Timothy (Strava)
3:04:27 - Ken (Brother)
3:04:32 - @opusone
3:04:40 - Mashrur (Strava)
3:05:00 - Jaime (Strava)
3:06:20 - Heidi (SIL)
3:07:14 - Sten (Strava)
3:07:15 -
@FelisLachesis
The two previous champions of predictions (Heidi - Lakefront 2016 and opusone - Dopey 2017) are bolded. The one thing I found interesting is it seems there's a delineation between three types of people. Family seems to be the fastest predictions, DIS members in the middle, and Strava runners are the slowest guesses. Definitely an interesting collection of predictions and it'll be exciting to see who gets the crown this time.
Weather Watch
START - Grafton, WI at 7:30am
9/22 - T+D of 94, no clouds, and 5 mph tailwind (as of 8:45am this dropped to 90). Accuweather actually has it as T+D of no higher than 80 (at the start) and increasing clouds.
9/23 - T+D of 88, partly sunny, 5mph tailwind. Accuweather has the T+D no higher than 82 at the start.
9/24 - T+D of 89, sunny, and 4mph wind. Accuweather has the T+D no higher than 82.
9/25 - T+D of 93, sunny, and 2 mph wind. Accuweather has the T+D no higher than 90 at the start.
FINISH - Milwaukee, WI at ~10:30am
9/22 - T+D of 108, no clouds, 11 mph tailwind (as of 8:45am this dropped to 103).
9/23 - T+D of 103, partly sunny, 8 mph tailwind
9/24 - T+D of 106, partly sunny, 6mph wind
9/25 - T+D of 109, sunny, 7 mph headwind
@pixarmom Noon weather
9/23 - T+D of 106, partly sunny, 10 mph headwind
9/24 - T+D of 110, partly sunny, 8mph headwind
9/25 - T+D of 112, sunny, 12 mph headwind