Watching resale: prices climbing!!

[jvattes]

Yikes! I've been watching resale listings for a little while now and the asking prices seem to be skyrocketing! Is this a thing that typically happens at this time of year (one DVC broker told me this is the busier time of year for them) or is this a larger trend? At this rate we will either sit it out and hope for things to restabilize or else just go for the direct purchase contract. The listings also seem to be flying off the page, going from "new listing" to "sale pending" sometimes in a matter of hours!

School me on this, will ya?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think it is both seasonal and trend. I think prices will come down, but not to where they were. As Disney raises direct prices and some sold-out resorts become harder to book at 7, people feel comfortable asking (and paying) these rates.

 

[Bing Showei]

As it is direct add-on prices continue to climb, so too will resale prices.

Fewer people are losing points due to lack of use by renting, so the affects of MF are being blunted by the ability to offset those maintenance expenses. Interest in DVC will continue to grow as the economy continues to recover and people find they have more discretionary income to spend on these things.

I also don't think the D23 announcement effects can be underestimated. A couple of recent good threads to read for perspective on the climbing prices trend.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/y...days-when-another-resale-prices-post.3633454/
https://www.disboards.com/threads/ssr-resale-prices.3640471/

 

[Ben E N]

I see no reason for prices to come down anytime soon, as long as the economy stays strong. As Bing Showei pointed out, it is a perfect storm of a strong economy, well advertised rental market, and strong interest in Disney. It will only get worse the closer we get to Star Wars land and the 50th.
If you are waiting to buy, especially direct, I would not sit around for too long. Direct sales prices for sold out resorts are sure to go up sometime in the next 6 months.

 

[disneynutz]

A DVC broker being busy doesn't mean higher prices. Being busy means that more are selling and the prices could come down, (supply and demand). Selling picks up as owners try to bale prior to dues coming due.

Bill

 

[glamdring269]

I think the next 2-3 months will be telling. Inventory will likely rise but not sure if that will have much of an impact on resale pricing or not.

 

[Bing Showei]

A DVC broker being busy doesn't mean higher prices. Being busy means that more are selling and the prices could come down, (supply and demand). Selling picks up as owners try to bale prior to dues coming due.

Bill

But it is indicative of inventory moving and interest in the resale market. Given also the prices they are continuing to move at, it seems the market is supporting the asking prices.

I think the next 2-3 months will be telling. Inventory will likely rise but not sure if that will have much of an impact on resale pricing or not.

Agreed. Next 2-3 months will be telling. It seems there are a lot of people waiting out on the sidelines until prices come down. Inventory may come in again, but anything reasonably priced doesn't seem to sit around very long. Who knows? Maybe the market will flood with sellers looking to bounce pre MF dues, but if recent contract postings are any indication, I'm not seeing a price drop right now. I'm not even seeing the leveling off that some people are talking about.

 

[jodifla]

But it is indicative of inventory moving and interest in the resale market. Given also the prices they are continuing to move at, it seems the market is supporting the asking prices.



Agreed. Next 2-3 months will be telling. It seems there are a lot of people waiting out on the sidelines until prices come down. Inventory may come in again, but anything reasonably priced doesn't seem to sit around very long. Who knows? Maybe the market will flood with sellers looking to bounce pre MF dues, but if recent contract postings are any indication, I'm not seeing a price drop right now. I'm not even seeing the leveling off that some people are talking about.

We pay our dues monthly, so we aren't ever freaked out by a big dues bill. I wonder how many people still choose to dues all at one time.

 

[Bing Showei]

We pay our dues monthly, so we aren't ever freaked out by a big dues bill. I wonder how many people still choose to dues all at one time.

You can put dues on your CC if you do it all at once and get rewards/points for it. You get nothing stretching the payments out.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Imho prices has gone up and some of the reason is the brokers trying to push and push the asking prices up.

Some of the increase is understandable but not all of it.

We as owners/buyers also has a stake in the forever increasing prices - because we could just say NO and don’t buy but we don’t.

When I searched for my BwV contract I initially looked at the major brokers but I found their prices ridiculously high so I sought else.

I ended up with an almost fully loaded contract for $90 pp. the same contract would without doubt have had an asking price of $120+

So if people started looking elsewhere for their contracts the prices from the major brokers will eventually come down.

But as long people continue to pay the ridiculous high asking prices the brokers will continue to push up the prices - because they too wonder: how high can we go?

 

[Ben E N]

You can put dues on your CC if you do it all at once and get rewards/points for it. You get nothing stretching the payments out.

Not to diverge too much from the original post, but you can get the best of both worlds by buying disney giftcards at Target using the Redcard. You can buy a few, equal to a monthly payment, each month, and get 5% off. That is better than any credit card. You then have them ready to be used when yearly dues come up.

 

[cep101]

Imho prices has gone up and some of the reason is the brokers trying to push and push the asking prices up.

Some of the increase is understandable but not all of it.

We as owners/buyers also has a stake in the forever increasing prices - because we could just say NO and don’t buy but we don’t.

When I searched for my BwV contract I initially looked at the major brokers but I found their prices ridiculously high so I sought else.

I ended up with an almost fully loaded contract for $90 pp. the same contract would without doubt have had an asking price of $120+

So if people started looking elsewhere for their contracts the prices from the major brokers will eventually come down.

But as long people continue to pay the ridiculous high asking prices the brokers will continue to push up the prices - because they too wonder: how high can we go?

Where did you end up going to get your BWV contract?

 

[zavandor]

Selling picks up as owners try to bale prior to dues coming due.

This may have been the case 3-4 years ago, but I'm not sure it's going to happen this year. Rental brokers are now an established reality and if someone is struggling to pay MF they can with a total of 30 minuts effort get 3 times what they pay in MF with a rental. Less people needing to sell contracts means higher prices and this is what's happening. If someone would have predicted SSR seeling for around $100 5 years ago he would have been derided, now it's reality.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Where did you end up going to get your BWV contract?

I end up going with Timesharebrokersales.com i did read that some in the past have had some bad experiences, but from what I read it didn't scare me. I know they dont accept(even though they legally should) that if you want to use another closing company as they are tied together with the one they recommend/want to use. The added cost of their closing company was just part of my calculations if it was worth it or not.

So far I haven't had any problems - I was however charged the 2018 annual dues now, because it was listed in the contract, but as we have enough time to close I didn't have to pay it now anyway.

 

[Cyberc1978]

As we approach the end of October I don’t see that many price coming down more the opposite.

Just saw a BLT contract 210 point asking $147 pp insane high. However BwV was “down” to $110 for a 400 points partially stripped contract.

 

[citivas]

As we approach the end of October I don’t see that many price coming down more the opposite.

Just saw a BLT contract 210 point asking $147 pp insane high. However BwV was “down” to $110 for a 400 points partially stripped contract.

$147 was the ask price or you saw the actual take price?

 

[Cyberc1978]

$147 was the ask price or you saw the actual take price?

Only asking. It’s still up for “grabs”

 

[citivas]

Only asking. It’s still up for “grabs”

There are BLT asks for $155 right now and "offer accepted" for $150, though I presume the actual take rate was lower.

 

[ScubaCat]

This may have been the case 3-4 years ago, but I'm not sure it's going to happen this year. Rental brokers are now an established reality and if someone is struggling to pay MF they can with a total of 30 minuts effort get 3 times what they pay in MF with a rental. Less people needing to sell contracts means higher prices and this is what's happening. If someone would have predicted SSR seeling for around $100 5 years ago he would have been derided, now it's reality.

I still think that both resale and the rental market are not well known or understood by the majority of owners. And, if people are thinking of selling, dues time would be the time to pull the trigger on it. There were, in fact, a LOT more contracts for sale last December thru February than the rest of the year, and I expect that to continue again this year.

That all said, there were a lot of buyers last year, too, so with people being more economically stable, it's possible that there will be even more this year and prices won't back off very much. Still, if I were in the market to buy, I'd wait just a bit longer, if for no other reason than there will be a lot more contracts available to pick from.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Just received yet another mail with sales listings. This one had OKW(e) with 260 points asking $120 pp. even though the contract has some 2016 and all 2017 points that is still way to much imho.

I know it’s only asking, still I don’t understand.