When Will the US Reach 100,000 COVID deaths?

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I think that's likely, although long-haul is measured in months right now. What I was unclear on is why cases with that sort of outcome are considered "mild".

Because they are not hospitalized to begin with, or don't need supportive care. You can just have a fever and be breathing well enough to not need the hospital, or just have whatever other long list of random symptoms this disease causes and you are technically a "mild" case. I agree that classifying them as "mild" after the fact makes no sense and I think may be reclassified as we understand more about the long haulers.
 


It will never even come close to 400,000. No way. We know too much now about it.

Oh, I think we absolutely will. No doubt, we know more about it than we did in March. If you get a bad case of COVID that requires hospitalization, you have a better shot at survival. It's unlikely that we'll see hospital systems overrun in the big cities, but we may see that in smaller cities, towns and rural areas. And cases are going up in many states, and will in more as the colder weather moves in. We had almost 1,000 deaths yesterday alone. We'll be at or close to 300K dead by the end of this year. And despite what we're hearing about a vaccine, it's unlikely that most Americans will have access to it before the end of the 2nd quarter of next year....so....June.

And, at least in my part of the country (NJ), I am starting to hear about more and more cases every day. Most of them are college and HS kids who are testing positive. And while I'm hearing of quarantines imposed by schools, sports teams, etc, a lot of these kids are out and about mingling inside homes, without masks on. That's happening all over the place around here. People are tired of all of this, and so they're getting lax, at exactly the wrong time. This is the time to be more vigilant, to prevent a big spike in the next couple of months. But based on the behavior of many people I know, it's already baked it....too late. The spike will come, and because contact tracing is a joke, it will cause a great deal of community spread, and deaths will follow. They always do.
 
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It will never even come close to 400,000. No way. We know too much now about it.
If only. :headache: We still know almost nothing about it. If we did,we wouldn't be at 200,000 DEAD AMERICANS in 6 months.Have we learned a LITTLE bit about treating it? Yes,maybe (we hope) But in no way could we be described as 'knowing so much about it' now.
DO we have a 'handle on this thing'? NO
Are people still dying to the tune of hundreds per day JUST IN THIS COUNTRY? YES

IF WE KNEW SO MUCH ABOUT THIS, OUR DEATH RATE AND INFECTION RATE WOULD BE ZERO....
I for one would LOVE it if this would all just go away and I could do whatever without worrying. But that is not what's happening here,or worldwide right now.
 


I have 2 friends with this hair loss, one has been diagnosed with post COVID syndrome, needs a lot of cardio and pulmonary testing. Both were pretty sick in May.


Ugh sorry to hear it. My friend said she feels fortunate it's only the hair loss that seems to drag on, but I know she was very upset. Her hair was so long and pretty and she had to cut a ton of it off to make it look ok. Better than breathing problems for sure, but still sad.
 
If only. :headache: We still know almost nothing about it. If we did,we wouldn't be at 200,000 DEAD AMERICANS in 6 months.Have we learned a LITTLE bit about treating it? Yes,maybe (we hope) But in no way could we be described as 'knowing so much about it' now.
DO we have a 'handle on this thing'? NO
Are people still dying to the tune of hundreds per day JUST IN THIS COUNTRY? YES

IF WE KNEW SO MUCH ABOUT THIS, OUR DEATH RATE AND INFECTION RATE WOULD BE ZERO....
I for one would LOVE it if this would all just go away and I could do whatever without worrying. But that is not what's happening here,or worldwide right now.
Don't shout, we are sitting close to our screen. We can hear you perfectly, also in small letters.

You can know a lot, but not all, there is a difference. And I do not think it's a strange thought to say the US will be able to keep the deaths under 400K.
The first 100K were between April and June, in about 2 months. The second 100K took about 3 months. It is slowing down. Even when you reach it, it will take about 6-8 months, probably, maybe even longer. Which is a lot of time when everyone is focussed on finding cures and vaccines.

What we see in Europe is that the virus is getting tired (or however you call it). We have more infections yes, but less ICU and less deaths. In my own country ICU stays went back from 22 days to 8 days. And that's because: We know a lot more in comparison to the beginning, we know much better how to treat the disease once someone gets infected. We know the difference between different patient groups, between old and young, those with pre-existing conditions. People have a better chance of surviving because doctors have learned.
Plus, we are much closer to getting a vaccine, even when it's not 100% working for all, we should be able to bring down the numbers of infections, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths.

I'm not going to put money on it, but it wouldn't surprise me if the US manages to stay under 400K deaths.
 
IF WE KNEW SO MUCH ABOUT THIS, OUR DEATH RATE AND INFECTION RATE WOULD BE ZERO....
That is factually incorrect and blown out of proportion. Our infection rate wouldn't be zero nor would our death rate. We know a lot about other diseases and viruses but we aren't under some illusion of infection rate of zero or death rate of zero. We have employed our knowledge regarding other diseases and viruses to reduce infection rate and death rate and work towards preventable infections and deaths; that is a factual statement. We are actually using what knowledge we have gained and are still gaining. We know much more about ventilators than in the beginning and how they affect individuals, we know more about treatment protocols, we have also tried to work on nursing homes and so much more. That said I wouldn't necessarily agree with the PP's comment about never getting to 400K but I think your frustration level, and 100% understandable, is coming through. I think we are all frustrated and tired and stressed :grouphug:
 
That is factually incorrect and blown out of proportion. Our infection rate wouldn't be zero nor would our death rate. We know a lot about other diseases and viruses but we aren't under some illusion of infection rate of zero or death rate of zero. We have employed our knowledge regarding other diseases and viruses to reduce infection rate and death rate and work towards preventable infections and deaths; that is a factual statement. We are actually using what knowledge we have gained and are still gaining. We know much more about ventilators than in the beginning and how they affect individuals, we know more about treatment protocols, we have also tried to work on nursing homes and so much more. That said I wouldn't necessarily agree with the PP's comment about never getting to 400K but I think your frustration level, and 100% understandable, is coming through. I think we are all frustrated and tired and stressed :grouphug:
You are so right. I stand corrected..... it wouldn't (sadly) be zero. I am stressed,not only bc of what we still don't know about this thing, but bc it seems that if we relax about this too quickly,it could get worse again. I'm deeply concerned about more people than before being affected by all of this....
 
If the plan that the president has mentioned several times in the last few weeks is employed (herd immunity), the projected total number of deaths ranges between 2-6 million in the US.

One big interesting thing we've all learned during this pandemic, is that when the citizens aren't given a national game plan, the states will make up their own. And if the citizens don't agree with the state's plan, they'll do their own thing. In some cases, that involves "Karens and Kens" running around yelling in Costcos about it being their God given right as human beings to not have to wear a mask. But it also means that in those states that opened up way too early, a lot of those citizens, make their own plans. In some ways, we're all our own little kingdoms. Setting and following our own rules based on our risk tolerance.

And so, when Disney opened up, at just 30% capacity, lots of people still stayed home. They ended up having to scale back their opening agenda because demand just wasn't there. Movie theaters in a lot of country opened up....but most people stayed home. New York City's office buildings are open....but there aren't any people in them. And so if the leaders in our federal government broke into our regularly scheduled programming, to declare that we all just pretend it's 2019 and get back out there. Most of us would...just stay home.

It'll be six months to a year after the announcement of any vaccine's imminent release before we get back to normal. And even then....there are soooo many questions regarding the logistics of the rollout of vaccines. Based on how "great" we've done so far In handling this catastrophe in this country. From the lack of PPE, to the horrendous testing debacle, to the lack of any coherent contact tracing....does anyone....anyone think things will go smoothly? I mean, the first two candidates out there from Moderna and Pfizer need to be stored in a deep freeze, at minus 80 degrees celsius (negative 112 F). If the vaccine thaws and refreezes in storage or transport....it's no good. The government has hired a company to help with "logistics", but the main companies in charge of transporting these vaccines all over the place....are FedEx and UPS. Anyone think that'll go well? On a mass scale? Those deep freezers are very expensive. I'm not sure how they're going to roll it out, but I think it's highly unlikely that you'll roll up to your local CVS for that type of vaccine.

I heard the J&J vaccine that just announced that it's entering phase 3....just needs basic refrigeration and one injection, versus two injections for the other two. So, hopefully that one will go well. However, since literally nothing has gone well during this catastrophe, I wouldn't count on it.
 
According to who?
According to me.

328,000,000 Americans x (0.60) x 0.01 = 1,968,000.
That is the calculation for the total number of Americans x 60% infection x 1% death rate (which is at the low end). Sixty percent is the estimate of infected individuals needed to create herd immunity.

At 3% death rate (the likely realistic death rate with rampant infection and overrun hospitals), that number triples to 5,904,000.
 
According to me.

328,000,000 Americans x (0.60) x 0.01 = 1,968,000.
That is the calculation for the total number of Americans x 60% infection x 1% death rate (which is at the low end). Sixty percent is the estimate of infected individuals needed to create herd immunity.

At 3% death rate (the likely realistic death rate with rampant infection and overrun hospitals), that number triples to 5,904,000.
This is backed up by other studies. Herd immunity/no precautions equals a staggering death count.
 
One big interesting thing we've all learned during this pandemic, is that when the citizens aren't given a national game plan, the states will make up their own. And if the citizens don't agree with the state's plan, they'll do their own thing. In some cases, that involves "Karens and Kens" running around yelling in Costcos about it being their God given right as human beings to not have to wear a mask.
What national game plan would have prevented that? If someone is going to do that they'll do that. Besides, while Costco is not the place for it, while yelling around and in people's faces about it is not appropriate, the ability to protest should still be there. We don't have to agree with their reasoning of course (and I would rather people wear masks than not wear masks). Even with a national plan if citizens don't agree with it they'll do their own thing. And some will choose to organize walks, rallys, and protests against such rules. Again we don't have to agree with their reasoning of course but that is fairly fundamental to us, that we speak up, even if the masses aren't listening or don't agree on said topic. The issue becomes when people go into a Costco and yell at people. Go outside and organize a protest if you want, just don't be rude and potentially spreading the virus (sometimes intentionally) just to speak up at the Costco worker who is just adhering to the rules.
 
According to me.

328,000,000 Americans x (0.60) x 0.01 = 1,968,000.
That is the calculation for the total number of Americans x 60% infection x 1% death rate (which is at the low end). Sixty percent is the estimate of infected individuals needed to create herd immunity.

At 3% death rate (the likely realistic death rate with rampant infection and overrun hospitals), that number triples to 5,904,000.

You are making too many assumptions. The first being a 60% infection rate for herd immunity. You don’t know what the number truly is and you fail to account for the people who have cross immunity. There have been numerous studies of people with immunity who have been never exposed to Covid. The second is what the true IFR is. 1% is too high. Mora than likely it’s around .4-.6. CDC recently updated their IFR by age range. I’ll have to do some math for their total.

Aside from hospitals in New York and New Jersey, few were ever overwhelmed. Florida got hit with a huge wave and still had plenty of bed space.

Hopefully this discussion is moot and we’ll have a vaccine within a few months.
 
One big interesting thing we've all learned during this pandemic, is that when the citizens aren't given a national game plan, the states will make up their own. And if the citizens don't agree with the state's plan, they'll do their own thing. In some cases, that involves "Karens and Kens" running around yelling in Costcos about it being their God given right as human beings to not have to wear a mask. But it also means that in those states that opened up way too early, a lot of those citizens, make their own plans. In some ways, we're all our own little kingdoms. Setting and following our own rules based on our risk tolerance.

And so, when Disney opened up, at just 30% capacity, lots of people still stayed home. They ended up having to scale back their opening agenda because demand just wasn't there. Movie theaters in a lot of country opened up....but most people stayed home. New York City's office buildings are open....but there aren't any people in them. And so if the leaders in our federal government broke into our regularly scheduled programming, to declare that we all just pretend it's 2019 and get back out there. Most of us would...just stay home.

It'll be six months to a year after the announcement of any vaccine's imminent release before we get back to normal. And even then....there are soooo many questions regarding the logistics of the rollout of vaccines. Based on how "great" we've done so far In handling this catastrophe in this country. From the lack of PPE, to the horrendous testing debacle, to the lack of any coherent contact tracing....does anyone....anyone think things will go smoothly? I mean, the first two candidates out there from Moderna and Pfizer need to be stored in a deep freeze, at minus 80 degrees celsius (negative 112 F). If the vaccine thaws and refreezes in storage or transport....it's no good. The government has hired a company to help with "logistics", but the main companies in charge of transporting these vaccines all over the place....are FedEx and UPS. Anyone think that'll go well? On a mass scale? Those deep freezers are very expensive. I'm not sure how they're going to roll it out, but I think it's highly unlikely that you'll roll up to your local CVS for that type of vaccine.

I heard the J&J vaccine that just announced that it's entering phase 3....just needs basic refrigeration and one injection, versus two injections for the other two. So, hopefully that one will go well. However, since literally nothing has gone well during this catastrophe, I wouldn't count on it.

I think there are no longer any plans. That’s where most of my frustration is. We went from “two weeks to flatten the curve” to kicking babies off planes for not wearing masks. It’s more than just moving the goalposts. There’s no longer any field. People are frustrated and exhausted.

I went to Publix the other day and despite the mask mandate, people were not wearing them. People are over it.
 
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