WWYD - Riviera vs. Non-Existent BC(2)

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

Hi - after the death of a family member I stand to inherit a bit of money, so the idea of buying at Riviera has come up again. We currently own more than 1,200 points and while we keep talking about selling off our original OKW contract that we use as “free” SAP, we haven’t yet actually made any moves to make that happen (unless you could using the points to book yet another trip!). So clearly we don’t *need* more points now, even though we have about 700 points expiring in 2042. But someone here once made the comment that come 2042 Riviera will be the “cheap” option in the Epcot/HS area vs. whatever BC2 becomes, and that really resonated with me. Yet BC is my family’s absolute favorite resort, and I don’t want to feel like we are “forced" to stay in Riviera if where we really want to be is Beach Club.

Options:
1. Buy (cheap) Riviera resale with the idea of selling if/when we decide we don’t want to be there, knowing that we’d have to stay there at least every other year. Keep in mind that I LOVE Riviera too - my daughter calls it her second favorite resort - but not quite as much as Beach Club. Her ideal trip is a split stay between BC and RIV. My son likes a split stay between VGF and BC (he’d be willing to try RIV as well). Realistically we are unlikely to sell (see comments about OKW above), though I like to pretend that we might.
2. Suck it up and buy 150-200 Riviera points direct with whatever bad incentives are available, knowing that if we go to sell we’d have to take a much larger hit due to resale restrictions, so that we definitely have somewhere to stay in the Epcot/HS area post 2042.
3. Wait for BC2 and see what happens, even if Disney goes down this awful trust idea and that becomes my only option. Actually the trust is what got me thinking about this again, as I strongly prefer owning where I would want to stay vs. whatever the trust happens to have stuffed into it. I should be retired by 2042, so it’s entirely possible that we won’t be able to afford nearly as many points as we would want/need at that point in time.
4. Bag all of this and use the money on an amazing AbD trip or just putting it into investments and eventually using it for something else entirely.

My family member loved to travel, so part of me likes the idea of using the money as a way to honor that legacy.

What would you do?

 

[MyDogTink]

My concern with RIV resale is that you can only use it there. I always “what if” things and think if I have to cancel less than 30 days out and have those RIV resale points in holding, there’s a possibility I may not get a RIV reservation in the 60 day window. For that reason, I think the premium paid for (or lack of attractive incentives) is worth buying RIV direct.

This trust idea is interesting. If they put the 2042 resorts in the trust when they roll over in 2042, will direct owners pre-2042 be able to book “trust” resorts. So if BCV is a new resort in 2042 and only available via the trust, can a direct RIV owner book it?

I think there’s a lot of uncertainty for 2042 and beyond but what’s for certain today is how limited you are with resale RIV.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

I forgot to add that my mother, who I own all points jointly with, strongly prefers direct points given that she values flexibility and that dues ultimately make up the vast majority of the difference in price. It’s just hard for me mentally to get over a $50-75/pp price difference between direct and resale on Riviera. At one point she thought we could put the OKW proceeds towards the difference in price, but then started talking about how much she wanted to try staying in the Cabins, my son wants to try a couple of the 3BDs, and my daughter is talking about another VGC trip, any of which we’d use our OKW points for.

 

[Sandisw]

As long as you have other points that are good at RIV, and want to stay at RIV, I’d say resale can make sense.

My resale RIV are with my direct VGF so if I am ever “short” and don’t want to borrow…which I never plan to do that…I can get something at 7 months, even if it means going up in view.

With what you just added, I’d go with direct and be done…I don’t think anyone should buy wiht resale value in mind.

Oh, and sorry for your loss…

 

[Jlo85]

If you want Beach Club, I would buy Beach Club. If you want Riviera, I would buy Riviera.

The only reason to buy now is ROFR is sleeping, otherwise there is no real reason you need to buy right now based on speculation about what may or may not happen in 2042. A lot can happen in 19 years.

 

[DanCali]

someone here once made the comment that come 2042 Riviera will be the “cheap” option in the Epcot/HS area vs. whatever BC2 becomes, and that really resonated with me. Yet BC is my family’s absolute favorite resort, and I don’t want to feel like we are “forced" to stay in Riviera if where we really want to be is Beach Club.

2042 is almost a full generation away. A pre-schooler today would be graduating college by then. If BC is absolutely your favorite resort, then I'd say buy where you want to go. It's extremely hard to get in there at 7 months out otherwise.

The main counter argument against that is that resale prices at BC are very high for a resort that expires in 18 years. Yet, it's a free market and those are the prices people are paying - you can't really control that. We're kind of in the same boat where we just pulleded the trigger on a BWV because we wanted that access. But it will be worth zero in 2042...

As for Riviera resale prices, I think they are going much lower than where they are today. The pool of buyers for those types of restrictions is limited and the number of sellers will only grow over the next few years (resort is barely 4 years old and not even close to sold out), at least till a steady-state is reached. It's not a reflection on the resort - we love it too - but I suspect most resale buyers prefer the flexibility of 14 resorts over one and it will take much lower prices to justify that tradeoff.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

To be clear we already own 550 BC points. The question is about buying BC2 in 2042 vs. Riviera in 2023.

@Sandisw - thank you. He lived a wonderfully full life and died with dignity. While we are all sad that he is gone, I can’t imagine a better ending, especially as we are watching what is going on with my MIL now.

 

[Sandisw]

To be clear we already own 550 BC points. The question is about buying BC2 in 2042 vs. Riviera in 2023.

@Sandisw - thank you. He lived a wonderfully full life and died with dignity. While we are all sad that he is gone, I can’t imagine a better ending, especially as we are watching what is going on with my MIL now.

2042 is a long way off and none of us know if BCV will even come back as a deeded timeshare given the new creation of a trust that may or may not change how DVC works.

I still say go for it and don’t worry about 18 years from now!,,

 

[vdangelo239]

I would just go for it and buy-in direct...but I would wait until after January 31st...I would anticipate Riv incentives to get better once it is competing with the Cabins and the looming sales of Poly...I feel like there will be tons of folks waiting to see the Poly price rather than pulling the trigger on Riv.

 

[DanCali]

To be clear we already own 550 BC points. The question is about buying BC2 in 2042 vs. Riviera in 2023.

If that's the case, then I think you don't need to worry about it for now. You have access to where you want to go for the next couple of decades. A lot can change by then...

If you want to consider a Riviera resale, I do think you will get a much better deal in 4-5 years than you will today and it doesn't sound like you are in a rush. It's also a lot more feasible to get in there at 7 months out if you are not looking for the cheap view. At the same time, maybe the DVC incentives for a direct purchase will get better than they are today since they do change every few months, so always worth keeping an eye on that as well.

 

[Brian Noble]

Others have said it, but 18 years is a long way away. There's no reason to solve a problem you don't have, and won't for a long time. If you want to use this windfall for that purchase, plow it into a nice index fund.

 

[Hubalorian]

I would just go for it and buy-in direct...but I would wait until after January 31st...I would anticipate Riv incentives to get better once it is competing with the Cabins and the looming sales of Poly...I feel like there will be tons of folks waiting to see the Poly price rather than pulling the trigger on Riv.

I believe they recently announced a price increase on 1/30 for Riveria going to 225 per point. So keep that in mind, while incentives may increase they will have to be much better then an additional $8 per point better

 

[intamin]

I think with the plethora of points you have, RIV resale can make sense since you want to be in the Epcot area. The comment you said about BC and RIV being cheaper in 2042 with BC2 point charts sounds like something I'd say but I digress lol.

Personally I wouldn't own a large amount of RIV resale but that has to do with my own comfort level because I want to be able to swap into other resorts at the 7 month mark or change accommodations say from a 2BR to a studio/1br if someone cancels a few months out to switch into like SSR last second if necessary so I accepted paying a premium to have all direct RIV points. With you having a lot more points than me though, that matters less probably.

As @Sandisw said, I wouldn't buy with resale value in mind if you do buy Riviera. I don't go into DVC expecting any return but again my personal philosophy.

You could also just save the money you would spend on RIV since you don't need the points and invest into a mutual index fund or something and pay for BC2 with the savings in 2042 which isn't a bad idea either that way you get BC throughout your whole life. Assuming of course DVC brings it back as part of the portfolio.