ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[ocdb8r1]

Why does it seem like BLT contracts are flooding the market right now?

Having watched for several years now it seems like one resort or another is always flooding, and one resort or another is always very tight, and they just kind of go round and round as to which one is where at any given point in time

I don't think they actually are though. I purchased a couple of contracts in March/April and looking at my notes, there's actually about 10% fewer BLT contracts now than then (this approximately mirrors overall listings as well which I think are 10-15% lower than March/April).

What I think IS happening is pricing is coming down a bit quicker than some other resorts. I chalk this up to this being a BIG resort with just a LOT of contracts available (third only to SSR/OKW in volume available). The longer ROFR is in slumber mode the greater the effect on the higher volume resorts (I think) as ROFR removes the single biggest purchaser of contracts.

 

[tom1944]

Why does it seem like BLT contracts are flooding the market right now?

I have just started to track AKV and BLT and I think there are more AKV sales.

I will pay closer attention to see for sure. The new search function on the Orange County site has some issues with the search function so right now it is more difficult to use.

 

[kneely58]

I don't think they actually are though. I purchased a couple of contracts in March/April and looking at my notes, there's actually about 10% fewer BLT contracts now than then (this approximately mirrors overall listings as well which I think are 10-15% lower than March/April).

What I think IS happening is pricing is coming down a bit quicker than some other resorts. I chalk this up to this being a BIG resort with just a LOT of contracts available (third only to SSR/OKW in volume available). The longer ROFR is in slumber mode the greater the effect on the higher volume resorts (I think) as ROFR removes the single biggest purchaser of contracts.

Yeah I guess that's what I meant. Good point. I've been looking at contracts for BLT and Poly which have traditionally sold for about the same and right now there are a lot more BLT's listed and at lower prices.

 

[Bearval]

If ROFR really was gone wouldn’t it be a matter of time before the resale prices tanked?

Or would their value or lack there of be set by hotel rack prices, rental demand and disneys ability to continue to fill their hotels?

If Disney have no problem filling the hotels then the rental prices would be strong and therefore more would see the value of buying. On the other hand if Disney couldn’t fill the hotels and had to give huge discounts then rental prices would be low and less would see the need for buying?

DVC value lies in that it is a very popular destination and the hotel rack rates are high. If ROFR is truly gone for good I don't see the prices tanking like your " regular" timeshare resorts that sell for pennies on the dollar but I do see the prices dropping depending on how many years are remaining and never selling for more then they did when originally sold as direct.

 

[Sandisw]

Couldn't there be a point in the future where enough RR contracts get sold that it begins to bottleneck reservations at the resort because of the restrictions thereby making DVD reevaluate their decision at that point? Perhaps the same happens to all the restricted resorts? I have no idea the numbers but I'm assuming there's a good deal of home resort owners that use their points at other resorts. If there's a point in time where many of the contracts are resale restricted at say Riv just as an example it would make booking a lot harder no? Maybe I'm not thinking about this correctly.

No…based on normal trends and data that some have surmised…the number of points at a resort that are owned by original owners is still around 80% or so at the 20 year mark.

Remember, a contract only becomes restricted once…when the original owner sells…after that, no mater how often it is sold, it doesn’t change the balance.

For example, I bought one in 2021…those 125 points are now restricted, and even if I list it in 10 years, it doesn’t put more restricted points into the system…just changes who owns them.

Now, the 7 month window may indeed be different for others, but I don’t think it will ever be to the point that other direct owners won’t be able to trade in as there will be direct owners who want to trade out to the other resorts, especially those new ones.

The other piece is that if the value of RIV drops to a point that an owner sees as too low, they may simply just keep it and not sell….if supply stays low, so does the number of restricted points.

 

[Reckoner]

Reckoner---$125-$19589-150-BCV-Apr-0/22, 8/23, 150/24- sent 7/17, passed 8/4

Under 3 weeks, not mad at that.

 

[momtwoboys]

momtwoboys---$115-$12225-100-BWV-Oct-0/21, 0/22, 100/23, 100/24-seller pays 2023 due- sent 8/7

 

[The_MT]

Found a beauty, thank you Fidelity!

The_MT---$110-$20050-174-BWV-Oct-31/22, 348/23, 174/24-Buyer pay Fidelity fee, Seller pay 23 dues- sent 8/7

 

[intamin]

I honest don’t think they care. As long as money is being made. DVC members are still a very small component of their entire fan base. Disboards members an even smaller component of that. Only time will tell.

Agreed. We like to think that Disney cares about its reputation or how it presents itself to its consumers and that they wouldn't make a product intentionally worse just to make a quick dollar.. but at the end of the day that quick dollar is the almighty dollar. We saw it with annual passes when Disney referenced Disney annual passholders as an "unfavorable" attendance mixture and again when they decided to pause annual pass sales for a year and a half. It's clear what they think of us. How many people during that time bought Universal and SeaWorld passes instead and are now taking their families there regularly? Each day a family spends at Universal/SeaWorld is 1 less day spent in Disney World and it's impressive a company the size of Disney has such lack of foresight.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Agreed. We like to think that Disney cares about its reputation or how it presents itself to its consumers and that they wouldn't make a product intentionally worse just to make a quick dollar.. but at the end of the day that quick dollar is the almighty dollar. We saw it with annual passes when Disney referenced Disney annual passholders as an "unfavorable" attendance mixture and again when they decided to pause annual pass sales for a year and a half. It's clear what they think of us. How many people during that time bought Universal and SeaWorld passes instead and are now taking their families there regularly? Each day a family spends at Universal/SeaWorld is 1 less day spent in Disney World and it's impressive a company the size of Disney has such lack of foresight.

I think a huge company like Disney trying to have "foresight" is harder than it sounds. Perhaps the current leaders believe what they're doing is for the long-term benefit of the company. I don't know. I'm not going to pretend that Disney will stay on top and keep it's reputation forever. But it's also hard to imagine anyone else like Universal, Sea World, or Lego Land over taking them. I think for the most part, the masses still dream and hope to visit Disney. It's the frequent fans like DVC and AP holders that feel shafted when we feel things aren't as good as they used to be. And TBH, maybe we shouldn't take it so personally when Disney does things that might offend? I'm not trying to make excuses. Just trying to come to grips with reality of the situation, the economy, inflation, labor market, and everything else. It's hard for a publicly traded company to operate successfully and make everyone happy, including it's fans and shareholders.

 

[Tiffani123]

Tiffani123---$100-$13524-120-SSR-Sep-0/22, 180/23, 120/24- sent 8/7

This will hopefully be a second contract for us. A little higher in price than I wanted, but happy to find one with the same UY.

 

[intamin]

I think a huge company like Disney trying to have "foresight" is harder than it sounds. Perhaps the current leaders believe what they're doing is for the long-term benefit of the company. I don't know. I'm not going to pretend that Disney will stay on top and keep it's reputation forever. But it's also hard to imagine anyone else like Universal, Sea World, or Lego Land over taking them. I think for the most part, the masses still dream and hope to visit Disney. It's the frequent fans like DVC and AP holders that feel shafted when we feel things aren't as good as they used to be. And TBH, maybe we shouldn't take it so personally when Disney does things that might offend? I'm not trying to make excuses. Just trying to come to grips with reality of the situation, the economy, inflation, labor market, and everything else. It's hard for a publicly traded company to operate successfully and make everyone happy, including it's fans and shareholders.

Disney is still ahead but it’s lead has definitely dwindled some lately. Disney is still my favorite overall but with Epic Universe coming online, Universal may start to need a complete 2 or even 3 days. The rides Universal has been putting out recently aside from Minion Blast have been great. Hagrid’s Motorbike Adventure is the best themed roller coaster I’ve ever been on and if I had to pick between Cosmic Rewind and Hagrid’s I’d pick Hagrids. Not that long ago we wouldn’t have even bothered going to Universal. I get that Disney is a publicly traded company and they have a responsibility to their shareholders but some of their decisions just feels very short sighted like their decision to tie in an IP into every single attraction. Rides like space mountain, big thunder, haunted mansion etc. are timeless. I mean I get why they do it but I miss when the land told the story instead of the movie. It’ll also likely need for many of these rides to have a retheme eventually. Okay I guess I better start yelling at the young whippersnappers to get off my lawn now.

 

[BessaB]

BessaB---$99-$12,870-130-SSR-Feb-0/22, 0/23, 194/24- sent 8/4,

 

[Brian Noble]

Is it just rofr and a robust resale market that differentiates DVC from the rest?

Not really. Several timeshare systems have ROFR (Marriott, Holiday Inn, Sheraton all come to mind) and several also have a robust resale market (many Marriott resorts, a few Sheratons, most Hyatts).

Partly the difference is that Disney is the only one that has most resorts bundled to enhanced access to the most popular theme parks in the world. Partly it is that Disney has (so far) been a pretty light touch on the sales floor. And partly it is because Disney's Reality Distortion Field is second only to Apple's.

I've been explaining/justifying my BLT resale purchase to skeptical friends and family

If it were me, I'd just stop trying. They don't need to know what I bought or why.

I personally think ROFR will come back sooner or later because it’s profitable for Disney. They can use the points for cash rooms, or sell them back at a higher price point as direct for buyers who want to purchase at sold out resorts, just as they always have.

It's not that profitable. They make more (and probably a lot more) by building a shiny new resort, even at current resale prices. The room-rental cash cow was great during domestic Revenge Travel, but that revenge is either ebbing or now being directed towards international trips, depending on who you believe, and Disney is back to discounting rooms more regularly.

It is easy money, but only when you have a stable of ready buyers. The recently announced developer credit for SSR suggests that maybe they have fewer ready buyers than they thought they would.

 

[emchen]

I personally think ROFR will come back sooner or later because it’s profitable for Disney. They can use the points for cash rooms, or sell them back at a higher price point as direct for buyers who want to purchase at sold out resorts, just as they always have.

I think so too. Which would be the resorts to have ROFR come back first you think? Maybe the sold-out ones with biggest delta between direct and resale?

 

[Bmramaut]

I am HERE for the lower prices on BCV and BWV. Particularly BCV…I see way to many overpriced contracts and glad that prices are lowering.

 

[Ginamarie]

Ok- I’ve reached the itching point on my ROFR waiting. I’m at day 18. The checking of email extra times per day has begun, but not yet turned obsessive. With money still sitting in my bank account, I’m still looking for more points too (this may stop for awhile once I pay for my current contract- lol).

 

[npatellye]

Ok- I’ve reached the itching point on my ROFR waiting. I’m at day 17. The checking of email extra times per day has begun, but not yet turned obsessive. With money still sitting in my bank account, I’m still looking for more points too (this may stop for awhile once I pay for my current contract- lol).

I’m with you on all of this! I’m getting to the 3 week mark tomorrow and am getting pretty antsy but I can’t stop from looking at what’s out there “just in case”…even though I know they won’t take mine. Once I pay for this one, I know I won’t be looking.

 

[tom1944]

Ok- I’ve reached the itching point on my ROFR waiting. I’m at day 18. The checking of email extra times per day has begun, but not yet turned obsessive. With money still sitting in my bank account, I’m still looking for more points too (this may stop for awhile once I pay for my current contract- lol).

I keep looking at contracts but think I will wait until fall of 2024. I just am not certain what I want to do.

Looking at resale AKV or BLT to combine with our SSR points or

Do we want direct at POLY2 or Riviera instead.

I can make a case for any of the 4. I can also make a case against any of the 4.

We have enough points for trips in 2023 and 2024 so the purchase is not necessary until a trip in 2025.

 

[pkrieger2287]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688608694265925632