dvc waitlist

Hi everyone, I just joined the waitlist for a Saratoga Springs Deluxe Studio for mid May (in a month) how likely do you think I am to get it? Thank you:)

Sorry if this was asked before, I can't seem to find it thru search. I am trying to waitlist Aulani reservation that requires 98 points that is within the 7 month booking window. Unfortunately I am totally out of 2023 points and would need to borrow them from 2024. Currently, I only have...