A Car Rental Apocalypse Is Coming: Here’s What You Need To Know

supamaki

Drinkin' around the world!
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Jan 10, 2001
I just read this article in Forbes, thought I'd share

Remember the good old pre-pandemic days, when you could plan a trip somewhere, then show up at the airport car-rental counter upon arrival and find a cheap last-minute vehicle for your trip? Or even during the pandemic, when there was a virtual fire sale on rental cars? Those days are gone.

Welcome to 2021, when a last-minute car rental might cost you $700 a day for a lowly SUV. And yes, that actually happened. According to Jonathan Weinberg, CEO and founder of car-rental site AutoSlash, that was the lowest price a customer could find for a trip this coming weekend in Arizona. Spoiler alert: They didn’t rent the SUV. “I think there was a bit of sticker shock,” says Weinberg, whose company specializes in getting the best possible deals on rental cars and tracking prices in case they drop.

But even deal wizards like AutoSlash can only make so much magic. According to Weinberg, the U.S. is experiencing a major rental car shortage that has been driven by the pandemic, which walloped this sector. “It all started with Covid, going back a year,” explains Weinberg. “The rental car companies were forced to go into survival mode and they sold off as many vehicles as they possibly could.” On top of that, 2020 witnessed major companies like Hertz (which also owns the Dollar and Thrifty car rental brands) and Advantage Rent A Car declaring bankruptcy, plus Europcar entering a restructuring.

For the rest of 2020, it wasn’t an issue. Demand was low, so car-rental companies kept their vehicle fleets at a very low level. But with people getting vaccinated in record numbers and travel starting to pick back up, the industry hasn’t been able to keep up with the demand in 2021—and it has all added up to a pretty grim situation for travelers, with sky-high prices and no inventory.

According to Weinberg, things hit a boiling point over President’s Day weekend. “Entire airports and entire cities were getting sold out in big cities like Tampa, Orlando, Denver. So if you hadn’t booked a couple of weeks in advance, you basically just weren’t going to have a vehicle at all,” says Weinberg.

And the worst is yet to come: “It’s become less of an occasional thing and more of a trend that has now escalated into an epidemic,” says Weinberg. “And we just see it getting worse and worse as time goes on.”

Complicating all of this are several factors: Americans are taking road trips in record numbers, driving instead of flying, renting cars instead of taking taxis and Ubers. Plus, people are taking more domestic trips, including places like San Juan, Puerto Rico, which has seen big supply issues, too. “Another thing that’s really pressing on demand is the fact that all these people who might’ve in other times gone [abroad] just can’t go there because of travel restrictions. So they’re all staying home and planning trips within the U.S., which is also putting a lot more pressure,” says Weinberg.

On top of it all, it’s expensive and challenging for the car-rental companies to increase their vehicle fleets due to the semiconductor shortage that is delaying car production and making it difficult to acquire new vehicles. “Car manufacturers typically sell to rental car companies in what they call ‘fleet sales’—where they’re basically selling at a cut-rate price. But why would they do that if you can sell to consumers who are willing to pay full-price for those vehicles?” says Weinberg.

So what’s a traveler to do in the face of all this apocalyptic news? “My advice to customers is to book as early as possible,” says Weinberg. Even if you’re just thinking about a trip, Weinberg advises looking into rental prices before you book your plane tickets or think about making speculative reservations. “The great thing about car rentals is that you can reserve without a credit card. We like to say that you don’t really have to have any skin in the game,” he says.

And don’t think it’s going to resolve itself anytime soon. “I really do think it’s going to get so bad that people are just going to give up and say, ‘I really want to travel, but this is just going to cost me too much. And I just can’t afford this car, or I literally just can’t find the car,’” says Weinberg. “It’s going to take people by surprise.”
 
Remember the good old pre-pandemic days, when you could plan a trip somewhere, then show up at the airport car-rental counter upon arrival and find a cheap last-minute vehicle for your trip?
Ummm, no - I don't remember that. I think that 99.9% of the people coming to WDW who want to rent a car will have made their reservations ahead of time.
 
I think at WDW you will have fewer people renting cars. Using DME until it closes, then using shuttle services instead.
Maybe the train when it finally opens.
It may take a year or 2, but as the airports get busier, I think you will see the rental companies add to their inventory and prices will slowly come down.
Not sure if they will get back to where they were or not.
 
I think at WDW you will have fewer people renting cars. Using DME until it closes, then using shuttle services instead.
Maybe the train when it finally opens.
It may take a year or 2, but as the airports get busier, I think you will see the rental companies add to their inventory and prices will slowly come down.
Not sure if they will get back to where they were or not.

It is interesting you say that. I had never rented a car at Disney until the pandemic. We were there is September and had driven down from Wisconsin. Long story short, we were in a car accident in Tennessee and had to rent a car for the rest of the trip (all of it). I loved it! We did use the skyliners one day, but drove the rest. We are renting a car in May again from the airport. For the convenience. :) I wonder if there are more like me.?
 


It is interesting you say that. I had never rented a car at Disney until the pandemic. We were there is September and had driven down from Wisconsin. Long story short, we were in a car accident in Tennessee and had to rent a car for the rest of the trip (all of it). I loved it! We did use the skyliners one day, but drove the rest. We are renting a car in May again from the airport. For the convenience. :) I wonder if there are more like me.?
We have rented a car for the convenience the last few years. However, if prices keep going up (as they have the last few months), that will end for us and I suspect many others.
 
Yeah, for a 10 to 12 day stay we have always been able to get a car for ~300 or less on Costco rates. For our trip in May we are looking at $535 for an economy car and that may be our best deal.
 
I believe this is a thing! My husband and I went to Orlando for a week in late January of this year and rented a Lexus LX for less than $400 for the week (+$80,000 retail price vehicle). I’m going back for a week at the end of this month and I have a Hyundai Elantra for $425. 🥴 A Ford Explorer was at least $700. I didn’t bother to check the price of the Lexus 🤑
 


Yeah, for a 10 to 12 day stay we have always been able to get a car for ~300 or less on Costco rates. For our trip in May we are looking at $535 for an economy car and that may be our best deal.

Holy smokes!!! Did you try priceline? We are renting a van in May for a week at $450 with Priceline's insurance package! Cheaper than the September trip!
 
Ummm no, I don't think the world is ending as it relates to rental cars. The article is written by the CEO of an internet company making rental car reservations, so I don't consider his views as objective and likely intended to drive more business to their website. I think most experienced travelers make their airline and car rental reservations once they know they are going to travel. Showing up at the rental car counter at your destination without a car reservation and expecting to rent a car was a terrible idea even before covid. All of the cars might be already assigned to those with reservations. Somewhat like showing up at the airport on your day of travel and trying to buy an airline ticket. Neither of those are something an experienced traveler would ever do.

Car rental companies cut back during covid which made financial sense for them since fewer people were traveling. As travel picks up once we are over covid, they will likely add back more vehicles to their fleets.
 
Ummm no, I don't think the world is ending as it relates to rental cars. The article is written by the CEO of an internet company making rental car reservations, so I don't consider his views as objective and likely intended to drive more business to their website. I think most experienced travelers make their airline and car rental reservations once they know they are going to travel. Showing up at the rental car counter at your destination without a car reservation and expecting to rent a car was a terrible idea even before covid. All of the cars might be already assigned to those with reservations. Somewhat like showing up at the airport on your day of travel and trying to buy an airline ticket. Neither of those are something an experienced traveler would ever do.

Car rental companies cut back during covid which made financial sense for them since fewer people were traveling. As travel picks up once we are over covid, they will likely add back more vehicles to their fleets.

Yes but in the meantime as demand quickly outpaces supply, rates will be quite high as the car rental companies look to increase capital so that they can begin to replenish inventory.
 
I believe this is a thing! My husband and I went to Orlando for a week in late January of this year and rented a Lexus LX for less than $400 for the week (+$80,000 retail price vehicle). I’m going back for a week at the end of this month and I have a Hyundai Elantra for $425. 🥴 A Ford Explorer was at least $700. I didn’t bother to check the price of the Lexus 🤑
We got a great deal too from Jan 8-16, 2021 thru Alamo. Some of the other rental companies wanted $3k and $7k for the same rental, lol. Sixt used to always have the best prices in this category but have gone way up the past couple years. Very surprised to have found this deal thru Alamo:

Car Summary
Luxury SUV
Infiniti QX80

Rental Rate (shown in USD)
1 Week(s) at 258.27 / Week(s) $258.27
2 Day(s) at 36.89 / Day(s) $73.78
UNLIMITED MILEAGE INCLUDED
Customer Facility Charge 3.50/day $24.50
Priv Fee Recov Chg 10 Pct
(10.0%) $32.31
Fl Waste Tire/battery Fee .02/day $0.18
Sc Rec - Fl Surchg Recov
2.00/day $18.00
Vlf Rec .85/day $7.65
Sales Tax (6.5%) $25.88
Total Savings: -$16.60
Estimated Total: $423.97
 
We got a great deal too from Jan 8-16, 2021 thru Alamo. Some of the other rental companies wanted $3k and $7k for the same rental, lol. Sixt used to always have the best prices in this category but have gone way up the past couple years. Very surprised to have found this deal thru Alamo:

Car Summary
Luxury SUV
Infiniti QX80

Rental Rate (shown in USD)
1 Week(s) at 258.27 / Week(s) $258.27
2 Day(s) at 36.89 / Day(s) $73.78
UNLIMITED MILEAGE INCLUDED
Customer Facility Charge 3.50/day $24.50
Priv Fee Recov Chg 10 Pct
(10.0%) $32.31
Fl Waste Tire/battery Fee .02/day $0.18
Sc Rec - Fl Surchg Recov
2.00/day $18.00
Vlf Rec .85/day $7.65
Sales Tax (6.5%) $25.88
Total Savings: -$16.60
Estimated Total: $423.97

Thats a great deal! I also usually pay more bc I like skipping the counter 🥴
 
7 weeks ago, I reserved a 7 passenger SUV at Avis for pick-up tomorrow. Just received a call that there are no SUVs available. None. Anywhere within 1.5 hour driving distance.

One exception - found an SUV at SIXT, but only 5 passenger, for 5 times more than I had the Avis reserved for.

To say I am upset is putting it mildly. In all my many years of renting vehicles for long road trips, I have never had anything like this happen. Where did all the SUVs go? And how do I fit 6 adults, and all our luggage, in a 5 passenger SUV? I don't, I know this, I am just very upset. Going to have to rent 2 vehicles, whatever I can find, and pay a ridiculous amount of money last minute.
 
I'm really concerned about all this. My dd and her new husband are doing their honeymoon and first trip without us the last week of April. They have a reservation for a week at Enterprise (costco) but they don't pick it up until 11PM as they get in late. I am really hoping their car is waiting for them when they get there. And that they haven't over booked. Has anyone ever been left without a car at the rental desk? They are staying off property so they need a rental car. Any advice or should I not worry?
 
I don't know about MCO, but I have been reading about car rental shortages in Key West recently. As in, there were zero cars available thorugh any car rental company, even for those with reservations. Travelers were left stranded trying to find transportation to their flights out of MIA and FLL.
I am dating myself, but this makes me think of the Seinfeld episode about car rental reservations: Rental agent: "Sir, I KNOW what a reservation is!" Jerry: "I don't think you do."
 
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I got a good deal on a one-week rental for May through UCT. But I already had a sense that something was wrong after seeing the absurdly high rates on offer at Costco. In my particular case, since it's just me, pretty much any vehicle will do if my reserved car category is completely gone despite my alleged reservation. In decades of trips to WDW and DLR, I have never been told that the rental car company had literally nothing for me. When I call the Avis MCO location to connect my booking to my Avis Preferred account, maybe they'll tell me what's what in terms of my actually getting a car.
 
I'm really concerned about all this. My dd and her new husband are doing their honeymoon and first trip without us the last week of April. They have a reservation for a week at Enterprise (costco) but they don't pick it up until 11PM as they get in late. I am really hoping their car is waiting for them when they get there. And that they haven't over booked. Has anyone ever been left without a car at the rental desk? They are staying off property so they need a rental car. Any advice or should I not worry?
Worrying isn't going to help anything. There have been a large number of these issues all over the country in the last 6 months. There is no rhyme or reason as to when they run out of cars or when they get more in. As long as the airport is flying people are taking cars out and bringing them back.

Many of the large companies trimmed their fleets too low thinking that there would not be a quick rebound. I thought prices were high when I rented at MCO in October, my wife went to WDW in Feb, we looked but it was not worth it to rent her a car then. Each month since we are seeing prices go up, and they will continue to go up until the companies can replace all the cars they sold.
 
While there are always exceptions, I've yet to see much difference in car rental rates now vs 5 years ago. A bit of an increase but certainly nothing huge. Everything has increased in price!
I think this kind of 'reporting' is awful, it causes angst where there is none needed. For crying out loud, who actually just walks up to a car rental counter and tries to rent a car? That's just crazy. Book a car rental before arrival. Of course it's going to be expensive if you just walk up and try to rent.
 
Remember the good old pre-pandemic days, when you could plan a trip somewhere, then show up at the airport car-rental counter upon arrival and find a cheap last-minute vehicle for your trip?
No. Perhaps at some non-touristy airport rental. MCO runs leaner Especially around holiday periods, they do overbook categories figuring on no-shows. Have never been shut out completely but categories have gone empty on us.

Had an issue returning car to Dollar 2nd weekend of this month & needed to stop at customer service kiosk. Long line, all folks who had reservations (some pre-paid) who arrived late on Friday night and found zero cars available. Appears they were told to return the next morning. They were issuing credits for those transportation costs at least.

In MCO if you are willing to go with one of the non-brand names or go offsite (something i’ve yet to do BTW as to personal comfort level) the rates are still less than with the major players for dates I’ve checked.

When I call the Avis MCO location to connect my booking to my Avis Preferred account
You can do this online
 

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