Bean Counters and shortsightedness

[DisFanDad]

To imply that it would draw equally from all attractions is also insanity. As is any suggestion that day guests would view LMA as a suitable substitute for riding Rise of the Resistance, Slinky, Tower of Terror or about 5-6 other attractions.

You are either trolling, delusional, or just have no experience at all at LMA and HS - honestly my guy. People went to that attraction, it drew thousands of people per show, people lined up. Line up, run time, and then time to get out, probably an hour all total. Thousands of people did this, every day. People who also would have (or did) liked Rockin Roller Coaster and Tower of Terror and "E-Ticket" attractions took time out of their park day to go to Lights Motors Action. Guests absolutely chose to go to LMA instead of going on those other attractions. Like, what are you actually talking about.

 

[tjkraz]

You are either trolling, delusional, or just have no experience at all at LMA and HS - honestly my guy. People went to that attraction, it drew thousands of people per show, people lined up. Line up, run time, and then time to get out, probably an hour all total. Thousands of people did this, every day. People who also would have (or did) liked Rockin Roller Coaster and Tower of Terror and "E-Ticket" attractions took time out of their park day to go to Lights Motors Action. Guests absolutely chose to go to LMA instead of going on those other attractions. Like, what are you actually talking about.

In a complex system, variables don't react in a neat and orderly fashion. Adding the LMA theater with a capacity of 5000 doesn't draw 500 people from Rise, 500 from Slinky, 500 from Star Tours, etc. It doesn't significantly alter guests' psychology, their desire to experience certain attractions over others, or their willingness to wait a certain duration for those attractions.

It's the same reason that today we routinely see 90-120 minute waits for things like Rise and Slinky vs a 5-10 minute wait for Star Tours. People don't view Star Tours as a suitable replacement for Rise, Slinky and a half-dozen others, despite the lower wait time. It's the same reason that Rock N Rollercoaster and Tower of Terror were 60-90 minute waits 8+ years ago, and today are still 60-90 minute waits despite the addition of Slinky, Rise, Falcon, Saucers, etc.

Would LMA reduce wait times at all other attractions? Yes, to some degree. But it wouldn't be as dramatic as you seem to imply. If the line for Rise tended to dip under 90 minutes during LMA, people would shift their habits in response. And as soon as those 5000 people are set loose, many will immediately move to fill the void.

Meanwhile, the addition of LMA would draw nominally more people into the park and raise the average length of stay. It's not the exact same population being drawn away from other attractions, and the draw itself would not be equally distributed. IMO a disproportionate number of guests attending LMA would be drawn away from other lower-tier experiences like Indy, BatB, Frozen, Launch Bay, Playhouse Disney, Muppetvision and Star Tours--experiences which themselves operate under max capacity.

As long as demand for the likes of Rise and Slinky remains high, guests will move to fill any void that is created.

 

[ChipnDale79]

In a complex system, variables don't react in a neat and orderly fashion. Adding the LMA theater with a capacity of 5000 doesn't draw 500 people from Rise, 500 from Slinky, 500 from Star Tours, etc. It doesn't significantly alter guests' psychology, their desire to experience certain attractions over others, or their willingness to wait a certain duration for those attractions.

It's the same reason that today we routinely see 90-120 minute waits for things like Rise and Slinky vs a 5-10 minute wait for Star Tours. People don't view Star Tours as a suitable replacement for Rise, Slinky and a half-dozen others, despite the lower wait time. It's the same reason that Rock N Rollercoaster and Tower of Terror were 60-90 minute waits 8+ years ago, and today are still 60-90 minute waits despite the addition of Slinky, Rise, Falcon, Saucers, etc.

Would LMA reduce wait times at all other attractions? Yes, to some degree. But it wouldn't be as dramatic as you seem to imply. If the line for Rise tended to dip under 90 minutes during LMA, people would shift their habits in response. And as soon as those 5000 people are set loose, many will immediately move to fill the void.

Meanwhile, the addition of LMA would draw nominally more people into the park and raise the average length of stay. It's not the exact same population being drawn away from other attractions, and the draw itself would not be equally distributed. IMO a disproportionate number of guests attending LMA would be drawn away from other lower-tier experiences like Indy, BatB, Frozen, Launch Bay, Playhouse Disney, Muppetvision and Star Tours--experiences which themselves operate under max capacity.

As long as demand for the likes of Rise and Slinky remains high, guests will move to fill any void that is created.

are you accounting for the people that see the long wait for those rides and say.."nah, i'm not waiting in that long of a line, lets go do this instead?"

shows act as a crowd control.

I'm not so sure that LMA draws people into the park.

 

[tjkraz]

are you accounting for the people that see the long wait for those rides and say.."nah, i'm not waiting in that long of a line, lets go do this instead?"

Yes, of course. But that already happens today, when people decide that 2 hours is too long of a wait for Rise and go see Muppetvision or Indy instead.

I'm not so sure that LMA draws people into the park.

Not in massive numbers, no. But there would be some non-zero effect. (And an even greater effect if we circle back to the original claim that LMA would have allowed Disney to maintain lower admission prices and increase park crowds.)

I'm equally unsure that LMA would successfully draw people away from Rise, Slinky, Falcon, etc.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Yes, of course. But that already happens today, when people decide that 2 hours is too long of a wait for Rise and go see Muppetvision or Indy instead.

you're correct, it is, but both of those were already there when LMA was as well.

I'm equally unsure that LMA would successfully draw people away from Rise, Slinky, Falcon, etc.

raises hand. if the lines were 2 hours, id skip these lines and do a show.

quite honestly, where do you think those people are that would have gone to LMA? are they just walking around the parks not in line for something else? I dont think they are, i think they're now in line for something else, and therefore increasing the wait times.

 

[tjkraz]

raises hand. if the lines were 2 hours, id skip these lines and do a show.

I never said that nobody would choose LMA over a 2 hour wait for Rise. But if we're discussing the differences between a world with and without LMA, the question is how it would change people's patterns. Right now--today--if you are personally unwilling to wait 90-120 minutes for Rise and Slinky, then the presence of LMA doesn't change your pattern at all. You were never in the queue, therefore the addition of LMA isn't removing you from the queue.

The question is how many people are thinking "I no longer choose to wait 60 / 90 / 120 minutes for "X" attractions because LMA is a worthy substitute." And it's a bigger question of how the entire system reacts, not just 1 member. It's how day guests making a once-in-a-lifetime visit react, not just locals, annual pass holders or DVC members. I'm not standing in that 2 hour line for ROTR either. But a lot of people are. How many of them view LMA as suitably enticing to leave that ROTR queue? And how many people who would otherwise be at Indy, Star Tours or Muppets will move to fill the void at ROTR?

quite honestly, where do you think those people are that would have gone to LMA? are they just walking around the parks not in line for something else? I dont think they are, i think they're now in line for something else, and therefore increasing the wait times.

The park is a very different place today than it was 10 years ago. Something like LMA would rank much lower on people's must-do lists. Those 10,000 people who were in LMA--on days it operated--now have 5 new attractions (including RR) vying for their time.

In the last couple of years, Epcot has added Remy and Guardians of the Galaxy. Two undeniably popular attractions, one of which is family friendly. In broad terms, I think it's fair to say that demand for Test Track and Frozen has not diminished one bit. The primary beneficiary of guests being drawn to Remy and GOTG has been Soarin, whose wait times have noticeably declined. (And I hope we're not going to argue that lines would be meaningfully lower across the board if Ellen's Energy Adventure were still operating.)

In this analogy, LMA is Soarin...at best. It's the thing that people do to fill time between the things they really want to do. Adding capacity in the middle of the spectrum doesn't have a massive impact on the top attractions. There are still just as many people looking to ride Test Track, Frozen, Rise, Slinky, TOT, RNR, etc.

 

[ChipnDale79]

I never said that nobody would choose LMA over a 2 hour wait for Rise. But if we're discussing the differences between a world with and without LMA, the question is how it would change people's patterns. Right now--today--if you are personally unwilling to wait 90-120 minutes for Rise and Slinky, then the presence of LMA doesn't change your pattern at all. You were never in the queue, therefore the addition of LMA isn't removing you from the queue.

The question is how many people are thinking "I no longer choose to wait 60 / 90 / 120 minutes for "X" attractions because LMA is a worthy substitute." And it's a bigger question of how the entire system reacts, not just 1 member. It's how day guests making a once-in-a-lifetime visit react, not just locals, annual pass holders or DVC members. I'm not standing in that 2 hour line for ROTR either. But a lot of people are. How many of them view LMA as suitably enticing to leave that ROTR queue? And how many people who would otherwise be at Indy, Star Tours or Muppets will move to fill the void at ROTR?


The park is a very different place today than it was 10 years ago. Something like LMA would rank much lower on people's must-do lists. Those 10,000 people who were in LMA--on days it operated--now have 5 new attractions (including RR) vying for their time.

In the last couple of years, Epcot has added Remy and Guardians of the Galaxy. Two undeniably popular attractions, one of which is family friendly. In broad terms, I think it's fair to say that demand for Test Track and Frozen has not diminished one bit. The primary beneficiary of guests being drawn to Remy and GOTG has been Soarin, whose wait times have noticeably declined. (And I hope we're not going to argue that lines would be meaningfully lower across the board if Ellen's Energy Adventure were still operating.)

In this analogy, LMA is Soarin...at best. It's the thing that people do to fill time between the things they really want to do. Adding capacity in the middle of the spectrum doesn't have a massive impact on the top attractions. There are still just as many people looking to ride Test Track, Frozen, Rise, Slinky, TOT, RNR, etc.

the real question is, how does the percent of guest in the park change from not being a line for anything and just walking around the parks with or without LMA.

if we knew that number, that would tell us how it effected wait times in other rides.