Ok, I know I should have cashed in all my loose change a month ago when dollar was 65-66 cents, but of course, we were assured that the dollar was steadily climbing!! For those who know more about the economy than I, or those who have a great crystal ball, what do you think the dollar will be doing by early Sept? We'll be leaving on Sept 8, so I need to cash in our change for spending money prior to that....do I hold out until Sept 7? Thoughts and predictions appreciated!
Canadian Dollar - Crystal Ball?
- Thread starter Jo-Anne
- Start date
MikeJ
Retrait is finally here...
- Joined
- Aug 18, 1999
Given the volatility in the money markets these days, I would not expect any large upward movement in the exchange rate for the next little while. In fact, I think it's more likely there will be more downs than ups. (Keep in mind I'm not a professional. 
)
We do the same as twinz, converting Cdn$100 to US$ on a regular basis (i.e. monthly). It's kinda the exchange equivalent of dollar cost averaging.
- Mike
)We do the same as twinz, converting Cdn$100 to US$ on a regular basis (i.e. monthly). It's kinda the exchange equivalent of dollar cost averaging.
- Mike
Good post! We have spending money, but I've been holding off buying my hopper passes hoping that our dollar would improve. I've been checking the rates on http://www.xe.com/ucc For sure, we should have bought a month ago. I'll probably buy this week or next. Our trip is in October but we won't wait that long! Happy trails to all.
Terrise
Terrise
Terise - have you looked into buying the hopper passes at the Canadian Disney Stores? They have the 5&7 day ones. You pay in Canadian dollars and it's based on a fixed exchange rate and, I think, you save the 6% tax. It's worth calling the Disney Store to ask about their prices compared to wherever else you are looking.
Hi, I don't know what is is like in your area, but
I find that the CAA office offers at least .02 (cheaper to buy)cents less than banks do.
From Past experience, I find the Canadian Dollar goes down as soon as Autumn comes. Last year I paid 1.64 in November, April was 1.58, July was
1.52. I keep phoning the CAA office asking their
rate, buy the Travellers Cheques, put into US account, then take out and go back to CAA 'cause they charge no fee for the Travellers Cheques.
Hope this helps.
Scratch
I find that the CAA office offers at least .02 (cheaper to buy)cents less than banks do.
From Past experience, I find the Canadian Dollar goes down as soon as Autumn comes. Last year I paid 1.64 in November, April was 1.58, July was
1.52. I keep phoning the CAA office asking their
rate, buy the Travellers Cheques, put into US account, then take out and go back to CAA 'cause they charge no fee for the Travellers Cheques.
Hope this helps.
Scratch
Watch for ?Potential? interest rate movements to anticipate movements in the C$. If Bank of Canada rates go up, and US rates stay the same, this provides incentive for foreign investors to put money into the Canadian market (better risk adjusted return than prior to the rate change). To invest in Canada, foreigners must buy Canadian currency, putting upward pressure on the C$. The converse is true if the central bank rates drop.
The opposite effect is seen with US rate movements. If the US Fed independently lowers rates, then our market becomes more attractive (on a risk adjusted basis), thus foreigners will sell US dollars, and buy Canadian dollars. This again puts upward pressure on the C$.
Many other factors also affect the dollar, for example after the Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates in Canada because of our economic stability, foreigners were in the process of already selling US$ compared to most currencies. This was mainly because of a dim outlook on the US economy, and because of all of the scandals in the US. Foreign countries however, do not like their rates being too strong (ie Japan) against the US$, because it makes their economy less attractive to business. Therefore, often their central bank buys $US, thus strengthening the US$ against all currencies. This is what happened after the recent strengthening of the Canadian dollar, and the reason why it is back to $0.62-0.63 again.
It appears unlikely that the Bank of Canada will raise rates again in the near future, however there has been much speculation that the US Fed will lower rates. The announcement is due out today, but all indications are that they will not move today, probably meaning that the dollar will not react, or react somewhat negatively if rates were expected to go down in the US.
Also, keep in mind that every $0.01 move in the dollar only means a savings or loss of $10 per $1000. Therefore unless one expects a significant swing in the dollar, or has a large sum to invest, the wait may not be worthwhile.
Hope this info helps for those planning future trips!
The opposite effect is seen with US rate movements. If the US Fed independently lowers rates, then our market becomes more attractive (on a risk adjusted basis), thus foreigners will sell US dollars, and buy Canadian dollars. This again puts upward pressure on the C$.
Many other factors also affect the dollar, for example after the Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates in Canada because of our economic stability, foreigners were in the process of already selling US$ compared to most currencies. This was mainly because of a dim outlook on the US economy, and because of all of the scandals in the US. Foreign countries however, do not like their rates being too strong (ie Japan) against the US$, because it makes their economy less attractive to business. Therefore, often their central bank buys $US, thus strengthening the US$ against all currencies. This is what happened after the recent strengthening of the Canadian dollar, and the reason why it is back to $0.62-0.63 again.
It appears unlikely that the Bank of Canada will raise rates again in the near future, however there has been much speculation that the US Fed will lower rates. The announcement is due out today, but all indications are that they will not move today, probably meaning that the dollar will not react, or react somewhat negatively if rates were expected to go down in the US.
Also, keep in mind that every $0.01 move in the dollar only means a savings or loss of $10 per $1000. Therefore unless one expects a significant swing in the dollar, or has a large sum to invest, the wait may not be worthwhile.
Hope this info helps for those planning future trips!
Thanks everyone for your insights! I think it might make sense to open up a US account if we plan on Disney fairly frequently.
Glenn -thanks for your very rational info...I know that overall the difference between a.62 cent dollar and a .64 cent dollar is pretty insignificant in the big scheme of things, but I get so excited when I can save a penny (I know it's irrational, but what can I do)!! When I'm in the US on vacation, I try not to let the exchange rate play into any decision we make (ie. paying $18 Cdn for a 5 year old to have one chicken nugget at a Character Buffet!!), but in my planning stages, I really enjoy finding all the discount codes and saving as much as I can upfront! I think I'll wait until end of Aug and then cash in our spending money!
Glenn -thanks for your very rational info...I know that overall the difference between a.62 cent dollar and a .64 cent dollar is pretty insignificant in the big scheme of things, but I get so excited when I can save a penny (I know it's irrational, but what can I do)!! When I'm in the US on vacation, I try not to let the exchange rate play into any decision we make (ie. paying $18 Cdn for a 5 year old to have one chicken nugget at a Character Buffet!!), but in my planning stages, I really enjoy finding all the discount codes and saving as much as I can upfront! I think I'll wait until end of Aug and then cash in our spending money!
You may not have to wait that long. Shortly after I wrote my last message, the US fed announced no interest rate movements at the current meeting, but signaled a disappointment with the US economic recovery. This type of statement is often a setup for a rate cut at the next meeting. All of the markets took it this way, and the C$ immediately jumped. Last I looked I believe that it is again above $0.64. I would not expect the anticipated rate hike in Canada in Sept however, as I would be willing to bet the BOC will wait to see what transpires in the US.
All of this being said, long term outlook for our dollar should be very good. This recent economic downturn could mark the first time in decades that the US entered into a recession, but Canada stayed out of it.
All of this being said, long term outlook for our dollar should be very good. This recent economic downturn could mark the first time in decades that the US entered into a recession, but Canada stayed out of it.
MichelleTO
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Oct 13, 1999
For the most competitive rates check out Money Mart. A snowbird friend who always buys US$ suggested them. We are in a border town and usaully have good deals at CAA and I have always purchased at CAA because their rates have been better than most banks. When I bought in July I checked into all the rates at the big 3 banks, CAA and MoneyMart. MoneyMart beat everyone by 1.5 cents! They take debit, and adjust their rates at 10:00 am, so if you are careful you can get the better rate depending on if the CDN $ has gone up or down. They also discount further depending on the quantity you purchase, ie the rate gets better the more you buy. There is a small surchase but it is outweighed by the savings. They do post a big sign in our Niagara store saying they have the best exchange rate and they did.
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