CDN $ doing good today
- Thread starter mom_rules
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Grumbo
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2003
Bit long but if interested in reading it makes one wonder.
Should we prepare for a much stronger loonie? - November 10, 2004
By Stephen S. Poloz, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist , Export Development Canada
The Canadian dollar is the talk of the town once again. There are multiple reasons being given for its recent strength, and a tendency to extrapolate them into the future an unlikely outlook.
Argument number one: The Canadian dollar is rising because Canada is an exporter of base metals, the prices of which are increasing due to strong global demand. This story helps explain the rise in the Canadian dollar from its historic lows in 2001-02 back up into the mid-70 cent range. However, it is risky to extrapolate this trend into the future the world economy is showing multiple signs of deceleration, and base metal prices are forming a plateau as a consequence.
Argument number two: Canadas interest rates will rise faster than U.S. rates, boosting the Canadian dollar. Again, this is a short-term story that probably has run its course and should not be extrapolated. Most forecasters expect the two economies to see similar growth in 2005, at just over 3%, which suggests that the two central banks will be on a similar path, not a divergent one.
Argument number three: The Canadian dollar has been boosted by high oil prices, which are set to continue higher due to Chinese demand. But China has been growing rapidly for at least 10 years, during which time we have seen oil prices of $10, $55 and everything in between. Today, China uses less than half as much oil to produce the same amount of GDP as 20 years ago; the world uses one-third less, and this trend will continue. As oil supply tensions ease, expect prices to drift back down into the $30-35 range, which should shave 4-5 cents off the Canadian dollar.
Argument number four: Purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations indicate that the natural level for the Canadian dollar is around 82-83 U.S. cents. But Canadas PPP has been above 80 cents since the mid-1990s, including when the dollar was worth 62 cents and forecasters were predicting a drop to 50 cents. PPP benchmarks have their uses, but forecasting exchange rates is not one of them. They are based on the notion that production costs should be equal between countries, but such comparisons are very difficult when economic structures are so different.
Argument number five: The U.S. dollar must fall to reduce Americas huge trade deficit. The reasoning is that the U.S. cannot keep borrowing $500-600 billion per year from the rest of the world to finance its deficit. Yet, U.S. bond yields remain very low, at just over 4% on 10-year money. Why? Because the U.S. trade deficit is being financed for the most part internally by U.S. companies. Globalization of supply chains by American companies means that about 70% of the U.S. trade deficit represents trade within companies imports from American-owned affiliates operating abroad and exports to these same affiliates. These arrangements are profitable for all concerned, and no financing strains are produced by them American companies owe these funds to themselves, an internal matter.
The bottom line? Assuming oil prices continue their retreat, the U.S. dollar should recover and the Canadian dollar should ease back, to average around U.S. 75-78 cents next year. But global conditions remain ripe for currency volatility, so we should be prepared for more overshoots.
Should we prepare for a much stronger loonie? - November 10, 2004
By Stephen S. Poloz, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist , Export Development Canada
The Canadian dollar is the talk of the town once again. There are multiple reasons being given for its recent strength, and a tendency to extrapolate them into the future an unlikely outlook.
Argument number one: The Canadian dollar is rising because Canada is an exporter of base metals, the prices of which are increasing due to strong global demand. This story helps explain the rise in the Canadian dollar from its historic lows in 2001-02 back up into the mid-70 cent range. However, it is risky to extrapolate this trend into the future the world economy is showing multiple signs of deceleration, and base metal prices are forming a plateau as a consequence.
Argument number two: Canadas interest rates will rise faster than U.S. rates, boosting the Canadian dollar. Again, this is a short-term story that probably has run its course and should not be extrapolated. Most forecasters expect the two economies to see similar growth in 2005, at just over 3%, which suggests that the two central banks will be on a similar path, not a divergent one.
Argument number three: The Canadian dollar has been boosted by high oil prices, which are set to continue higher due to Chinese demand. But China has been growing rapidly for at least 10 years, during which time we have seen oil prices of $10, $55 and everything in between. Today, China uses less than half as much oil to produce the same amount of GDP as 20 years ago; the world uses one-third less, and this trend will continue. As oil supply tensions ease, expect prices to drift back down into the $30-35 range, which should shave 4-5 cents off the Canadian dollar.
Argument number four: Purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations indicate that the natural level for the Canadian dollar is around 82-83 U.S. cents. But Canadas PPP has been above 80 cents since the mid-1990s, including when the dollar was worth 62 cents and forecasters were predicting a drop to 50 cents. PPP benchmarks have their uses, but forecasting exchange rates is not one of them. They are based on the notion that production costs should be equal between countries, but such comparisons are very difficult when economic structures are so different.
Argument number five: The U.S. dollar must fall to reduce Americas huge trade deficit. The reasoning is that the U.S. cannot keep borrowing $500-600 billion per year from the rest of the world to finance its deficit. Yet, U.S. bond yields remain very low, at just over 4% on 10-year money. Why? Because the U.S. trade deficit is being financed for the most part internally by U.S. companies. Globalization of supply chains by American companies means that about 70% of the U.S. trade deficit represents trade within companies imports from American-owned affiliates operating abroad and exports to these same affiliates. These arrangements are profitable for all concerned, and no financing strains are produced by them American companies owe these funds to themselves, an internal matter.
The bottom line? Assuming oil prices continue their retreat, the U.S. dollar should recover and the Canadian dollar should ease back, to average around U.S. 75-78 cents next year. But global conditions remain ripe for currency volatility, so we should be prepared for more overshoots.
mousy_in_canada
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- Nov 10, 2003
PhotobearSam
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Funny
mousy_in_canada
<font color=darkcoral>Ahhh to dream!<br><font colo
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2003
Looks like our Dollar is taking a hit today...
ex.com @ 6:05 pm
1.00 CAD Canada Dollars = 0.833613 USD United States Dollars
1 CAD = 0.833613 USD 1 USD = 1.19960 CAD
ex.com @ 6:05 pm
1.00 CAD Canada Dollars = 0.833613 USD United States Dollars
1 CAD = 0.833613 USD 1 USD = 1.19960 CAD
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