December DVC Sales Tumble

[AstroBlasters]

100%. Sometimes I feel a bit guilty disliking the monorail as much as I do but I go out of my way to avoid it. I mean she looks beautiful and adds so much to the overall aesthetic of the area so I wouldn’t change it lol but I much prefer the boats to the monorail in the MK area. And the skyliner above them all.

Although, I would have loved it if they could have added canals to the Riviera so they could have also had friendship boat access, for the times when the Skyliner was down or for those who have a fear of heights, that would have been amazing. And I know Venice isn’t part of the European Riviera (it’s close enough for a European-inspired hotel haha) but imagine if they had faux gondoliers attached to the outside of the boats and you just see some gondolier lead boats paddling their way around the lake? What a vibe, they could have all my money at that point.

A gondola ride from your resort to Epcot?

That would be magical…. but what would it cost in dues to maintain…

 

[Nabas]

My wife has told me she has no desire to ever go on the Skyliner because she would always worry about it breaking down and our family being stuck OR high wind/rain making it unable to operate and we are stuck with busses.

That’s just one opinion, but that’s also one less family that would ever consider RIV.

We like the Riviera but have been screwed by the Skyliner 3 times on about 20 total rides, including once on a perfectly sunny day in the middle of the afternoon, getting trapped at the transfer station and having to Uber to get to Hollywood Studios.

And this doesn’t include the times we wanted to ride the Skyliner, but it was down before we boarded.

It seems that Disney still struggles with providing alternative transportation when the Skyliner shuts down.

I doubt it has any effect on direct sales, but the Skyliner’s reliability along with resale restrictions keep us from ever buying there.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

the boats are our favorite way to go, which adds to why we like CCV/BarV so much (that and we love its theme and somewhat seclusion). We love the boat at BCV to HS. We do love the Skyliner, but if Disney had put in a cabal with a boat option, we’d be *ecstatic.*

We love the boats too! I find we’re much more present when on the boats and enjoy the ride so much more. The monorail is usually super packed and stressful and although its probably not true, it feels so slow sometimes, slower then the boats.

The more I think about it, not adding a water way connecting Crescent lake to Riviera was a bit of missed opportunity. It would have made Riviera feel even more connected to the Epcot resort area and added tremendous value. I’m sure there’s geographical reasons why they couldn’t add one and it was probably too expensive but one can dream.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

A gondola ride from your resort to Epcot?

That would be magical…. but what would it cost in dues to maintain…

Haha yeah definitely a pretty penny but I’d certainly find value in a bit of an increase in my dues for that magic. It would fit the whole theme so well! From the Riviera to the world showcase, entering in France??? (Hire me DVD, I have ideas!)

 

[grahf1234]

My wife has told me she has no desire to ever go on the Skyliner because she would always worry about it breaking down and our family being stuck OR high wind/rain making it unable to operate and we are stuck with busses.

Really love the skyliner, but unfortunately moments of suspended operation can and do happen. I've only encountered it 3 times in many trips last one being this past christmas day. But even though it's pretty rare, it's still unsettling and concerning, specially that the stopped gondola can and will sway in all directions for a good 5-15 minutes!

The announcements also kind of increases the panic, goes from a soothing voice saying stuff like "sit back, relax, and enjoy the most magical flight on earth" to a loop from a pretty serious robotic voice "Ladies and gentlemen, the disney skyliner is temporarily delayed, please remain seated" lol. I swear off riding the skyliner every time that happens, but that usually goes away the second the gondola starts moving again

 

[walt34]

I swear off riding the skyliner every time that happens, but that usually goes away the second the gondola starts moving again

No reason to worry. The Skyliner is a Doppelmayr/CWA gondola system (looks like a variant of the Omega IV). This system and its precursors are in use all over the world (mostly skiing areas). They survive a lot harsher conditions than a little bit of wind.

Yes, the swaying might feel a bit uncomfortable. But the gondolas don't fall down (unless they are hit by a tree or something similar).

 

[NorCalFanatic]

Which section of the forum is that thread in? I want to read it.

Scroll back a few pages….its in this forum.

 

[Brian Noble]

I find the - for DVD beneficial - short term effect more questionable than the longterm effect:

I'll be the first to admit, I don't get to sit around the table with the decision makers. But Occam's Razor suggests that they are doing this for short-term gain, because none of them are going to benefit--directly or indirectly--from some strategy that is a decade in the making.

Bob 1.0/3.0 does not care about profitability in 2Q34. He's not going to be CEO, and may not be above ground by then. He probably doesn't even care about it in 2Q27, because his (current) contract ends in '26.

But he sure does care about profitability in 2Q24. Today. Right now. If the strategy folks thought restrictions depressed sales below "more or less break even" they'd be gone tomorrow.

You have argued in other postings that guides don't talk about resale and most direct buyers are not aware of resale.

That's an accurate assessment of my opinion. I believe most buyers have no idea that the resale market exists or what it might look like. I believe Guides do not tell buyers about it in most cases.

But most is not all.

A Guide's job is twofold. First, the Guide must figure out, for this specific guest, what their most compelling reasons for buying might be, and to accentuate the elements of the program that align with those reasons. Second, the Guide must figure out (again for this specific guest), what their most salient objections to buying might be, and how to overcome or minimize them.

So, what are the objections that are relevant to resale? The first is: "I'm not sure I want this for fifteen years, let alone fifty." One argument to overcome that objection is: "Well, you can always sell it--and you'd probably get a good price for it, and in the meantime you are staying in these luxury villas at today's prices." That has the benefit of being true. It is not the whole truth, mind you, but it is true. A Guide might even suggest one property over another "because it holds its value particularly well."

Heck, that suggestion might even be for an unrestricted resort, if they happen to have one in active sales. I'm not sure if Florida Guides are willing or able to sell Aulani, but if they are then fine, that's an option. But, if they are not, they are not going to have unrestricted points in active sales until and unless Poly 2.0 goes on sale without them. And there, the shorter time horizon is a feature not a bug.

The second objection? "Someone at the pool was telling me that I could buy these for less from someone looking to get out." Well, sure you could, but you wouldn't be eligible for <a very long list of meaningless Blue Card benefits.> And, that's the argument they've had for years. Apparently, they thought that adding one more argument--well, you could, but you could only stay here--was worth doing.

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We here on DIS often make the argument that restrictions don't matter that much, because after '42 a much larger share of points will be restricted, and there will be fewer meaningful resale options that have multiple resorts available. We tend to generalize from that argument to "and that must be why they are doing this." But I can't imagine that any bright-eyed bushy-tailed MBA came up with a presentation that said: "If we do this today, and sacrifice sales for a decade or so, then 20 years from now we're in great shape!" without being laughed out of the room or, more likely, fired on the spot.

And look, I'm just an armchair quarterback. Heck, I've never worked in the private sector for more than a few months at a time since I was in high school. And that was a long time ago. So, I could be wrong about all of this. But, just reading the tea leaves, this seems to be the answer that is more likely than not.

 

[walt34]

I'll be the first to admit, I don't get to sit around the table with the decision makers. But Occam's Razor suggests that they are doing this for short-term gain, because none of them are going to benefit--directly or indirectly--from some strategy that is a decade in the making.

Great post, good argument and - as always - a pleasure to read.

I still don't think that DVD's overall strategy is just quarter to quarter. These are expensive resorts to build and this requires a bit more strategy than just for the next three months.

That the old resale model provided a product that was a little bit too competitive for comfort sounds to me exactly like something an MBA would come up with. Let's devalue the resale product without impacting direct sales too much. This leads to a much more comfortable position in the future. If the spread between resale price and direct price gets wide enough, they might even start ROFRing again or provide an upgrade path from resale to direct. Making money without building anything, as other timeshares do, must sound appealing to DVD, too.

 

[Sandisw]

Poly is a stable resale market while Riviera is still a very nascent resale market. Current owners at Riviera have owned for 0-4 years at most, and the resort is not even 60% sold out. So I don't think Riviera resale supply today is anywhere near what it will be at a "steady state" with a sold out resort and some percentage of total owners selling each year. Higher supply usually leads to lower prices. That's a long way to say that I think whatever Riviera's resale price is today, it's probably higher than it should be due to lack of adequate supply. Since it's the first resort with these restrictions, I don't know where it ends up (at prevailing prices, I'd prefer BLT much more), and that uncertainty is also part of the problem.

And I think in 5 years, when RIv is at a sold out price of close to $300, we may very well see RIV stable around $130 to $150, especially if there are other restricted products out there

 

[maui22]

Will we really know the impact of restrictions on resale before a major economic downturn happens? We didn’t own DVC for the dot com and 9/11 crash, but we sure saw a difference between BCV and other resorts when great recession impacted DVC for a few years.

 

[tom1944]

It really could go either way. I don't know, personally one of the big reasons I swap currently is to try to get into BC/BW. I know they're pretty small associations so maybe it won't affect the value that much but at the same time knowing I can't book those resorts at all would affect how much I value resale and not in a good way but maybe others don't really care about those resorts.

2042: BC/BW/BR/VB/HHI
2054: SSR
2057: AKL(J/K), OKW
2060: VGC, edit: *forgot BLT* :X
2062: AUL
2064: VGF
2066: PVB
2068: CCV

Sorry that was more for me so I could mentally visualize which resorts are gone and when. So basically after 2042 we're down to 9 of those I'd probably be willing to stay in 8 of them? So still a decent amount of resorts but by that point unless it was a great deal I'd probably just want more points that are unrestricted so I don't have to worry about it being limited to those 7 personally. It's obviously an incredibly subjective choice based on a whole bunch of factors like age, family and etc. Also if you simply don't care about staying anywhere else it matters less but I also don't think resale value of non-restricted resorts will skyrocket or anything like that. But /shrug what do I know.

By 2042 I expect my WDW vacation will be different than my current vacation and the major reason to stay at resorts close to the parks with transportation beyond buses will no longer be 5 but 23.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Price is a huge factor. Also, despite the mega crowds at Disney, I don't think as many are willing to make such a big investment in an uncertain economy.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Are the sales price of the “sold out” resorts expected to go up in Feb or just the “actively selling ones”?

 

[RichVIII]

Price is a huge factor. Also, despite the mega crowds at Disney, I don't think as many are willing to make such a big investment in an uncertain economy.

Agree. When you look at pricing at VGF this summer, it moved inventory. It slows up add-ons with little incentives and even new buyers have to paused a bit when you start looking at 35K.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Listen, if we all just pinky promise to not buy anymore direct points for the next year, really mess with their sales numbers, Disney might be prompted to give us some really great incentives to get sales moving again and that’s when we all pounce

 

[Sunnyore]

I think that the biggest change that I've noticed in DVC was actually on our Disney Magic cruise this past August. I remember taking DCL cruises back pre-COVID and you would go to the DVC meetings and they would handout hats, etc. to members, then they would have the general meeting to pitch to non-members, and the first thing that the guides would say in the meeting was "Don't even ask us, go find someone with a DVC hat and ask them what they think of the program". In essence, it sold itself and existing members were probably the best sales staff they had.

Fast forward to our cruise this past August, and there's no mention of talking to existing members. In fact, I think they now do not want potential new purchasers to discuss things with existing members for many of the reasons that we debate on here. I mean, one of the biggest questions in the existing member meeting was people just wanting to verify that VGF was not restricted. I can't imagine that was a discussion they wanted new members to walk into.

Granted, this was just a subtle thing that I have noticed, but I think it indicates a bigger shift in people's perceptions of DVC.

For what it's worth, I was asked to to attend the non-member meeting on the Magic this past Nov if I had time. The CMs said non-members could really benefit from hearing from members. I didn't attend because I had better things to do on the cruise.

 

[Sunnyore]

Any good freebies at the party? Will be there next week.

I liked the leis they passed out for the members. And don't forget to do the scavenger hunt to get the cute lil menehune for a souvenir.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I liked the leis they passed out for the members. And don't forget to do the scavenger hunt to get the cute lil menehune for a souvenir

Thanks! We started the hunt yesterday! Along with the daily passport stamps

 

[tidefan]

I liked the leis they passed out for the members. And don't forget to do the scavenger hunt to get the cute lil menehune for a souvenir.

Just a note... Pre-COVID, you used to get the Kukui nut leis when you arrived at the porte cochere. You didn't have to go to the DVC meeting. There, you got an Aulani baseball cap.