Have we reached the saturation point?

Really can't add much but for me it's the adding of more weekends and cost. And I think part of that cost is adding so many challenges to every weekend.

And while the running craze may be dying, people still enter lotteries and drop big dollars to run the big marathons like NYC, Chicago, Marine Corps, etc.
 
Also, scheduling is not in rD's favor. Like Tink on Mother's Day.

Wine & Dine is the same weekend as NYC Marathon - not that there's likely a great deal of crossover, but it definitely takes rD stalwarts that get into NYC out of the equation.

Avengers - THAT problem is completely avoidable. Change the date to not be the same weekend as RnR Las Vegas and I think you'll see a upswing. You're fighting for West Coast locals and they'll likely ALWAYS pick a night race in Vegas over yet another day race in Anaheim.
 
Also, scheduling is not in rD's favor. Like Tink on Mother's Day.

Wine & Dine is the same weekend as NYC Marathon - not that there's likely a great deal of crossover, but it definitely takes rD stalwarts that get into NYC out of the equation.

Avengers - THAT problem is completely avoidable. Change the date to not be the same weekend as RnR Las Vegas and I think you'll see a upswing. You're fighting for West Coast locals and they'll likely ALWAYS pick a night race in Vegas over yet another day race in Anaheim.
That is true however I think runDisney's original thoughts were that they could get more mother and daughter duos to run because it is mother's day. Obviously that hasn't happened.

I never thought of the Avengers problem. That is an excellent point.
 
Also, scheduling is not in rD's favor. Like Tink on Mother's Day.

Wine & Dine is the same weekend as NYC Marathon - not that there's likely a great deal of crossover, but it definitely takes rD stalwarts that get into NYC out of the equation.

Avengers - THAT problem is completely avoidable. Change the date to not be the same weekend as RnR Las Vegas and I think you'll see a upswing. You're fighting for West Coast locals and they'll likely ALWAYS pick a night race in Vegas over yet another day race in Anaheim.

Also, SWDS Weekend and the Boston Marathon.
 
As a WDW local-

I'm done with RunDis because-

Courses are so crowded that it's hard to impossible to run 'my race'
The value for the race is sub par to local races
The value each year declines
The no refund/deferral thing vs registration price
Even earlier registration than previous years means more time for 'life' to happen

If races are still available a month or two before I'll consider it but not going to drop the coin so far out anymore
 
Probably also good to note that races not selling out doesn't mean they aren't still popular. A lot of people do these races and more races allows more people to participate in the one that fits them best. I mean there were a ton of people at marathon weekend and not all those races sold out.
 
The combination of all the points mentioned add up to the reasons why these races have stopped selling out in hours.The pricing of these races at nearly $200 a race is something people were willing to pay for a while but after people do their share of Disney races they may start to compare costs of Run Disney races and start asking themselves is it worth the cost when compared to other races that can range from $50-$100.Then you add in the lack of uniqueness of the races,where every weekend you have the 5K,10K and half and if you don't spend the $350 to do the challenge you feel like you're missing out so you may just totally skip the weekend and save on the race fee and all the expenses that go with it.I used to love the night races,ToT didn't have a great course but everything else about it was a must do every year,the people dressing up in Halloween costumes,the after party,etc..The same can be said for Wine and Dine,it went from a cool night race with an after party to just another race with a bad course,hopefully when DHS construction ends there will be a new ToT race at night and Wine and Dine gets a better course and moved to a night run.Another new thing is why are all the registrations all bunched up together.

I just moved about half a year ago next to Disney and although I stated several of the reasons these races are not what they used to be I'm still living 5 minutes from the parks and not doing them seems crazy.I've been on the fence as far as doing Dark Side since they changed the course which I enjoyed last year,I think I might sign up for just the half in the next day or two.Wine and Dine is also in the plans but just like Dark Side,only the half,no challenges.Along with those two I'm also going to have to sign up for the Space Coast half in February as I'll be getting a challenge medal for doing 3 out of 5 years,I've done the full the last two years but only want to do the half this year and the half marathon in Space Coast is probably the fastest race to fill up in Florida,including Disney,so that means signing up on Feb 15th when registration opens.All these registrations bunched together along with 2018 marathon weekend registration earlier than usual means I'll probably just go with the Disney full instead of the Dopey challenge which I originally wanted to do,too many registrations all within 2 months of each other,if I have the money at the time or if Dopey doesn't sell out right away I might be able to do Dopey but I think I prefer to spend the Dopey money on 3 different weekends.
 
Courses are so crowded that it's hard to impossible to run 'my race'
I was worried about this issue during WDW weekend. I was starting in corrals farther back E for the 5K and 10K and L for the Marathon. However must say I didn't find any problems with course crowding during any of the races at least nothing that really bothered me. Areas like Cone alley are always going to be a bit crowded but there isn't much Disney can do there. The only issue I had with the 5K and 10K was the character lines were very long, longer than I have seen them before. Some were valid waits because they were rare stops others not so much. I only ended up waiting for one character in each of those races.
 
Also, scheduling is not in rD's favor. Like Tink on Mother's Day.

Wine & Dine is the same weekend as NYC Marathon - not that there's likely a great deal of crossover, but it definitely takes rD stalwarts that get into NYC out of the equation.

Avengers - THAT problem is completely avoidable. Change the date to not be the same weekend as RnR Las Vegas and I think you'll see a upswing. You're fighting for West Coast locals and they'll likely ALWAYS pick a night race in Vegas over yet another day race in Anaheim.

I really struggle with the Avengers/Vegas clash. I did both once! That was a once and done thing...
 
Another factor and probably less significant than some of the other reasons given is rundisney attracting a more proportional share of non-runners compared to other races. During the height of its popularity and still today, rundisney does attract more of the never ran before or want to get in shape and use rundisney as incentive people. Many did the races once or twice and stopped... the one and done crowd.... whether they crossed it off their bucket list or realized running is not for them. Therefore, rundisney has not replaced these non-returners. I think evidence of this is you do get sellouts in the shorter distances but no longer in long distances like the half. You simply have more people who tried it and realized the long distances are not fun and/or too hard for them.
 
Awesome thread!

I don't think RunDisney is necessarily at saturation point but I think they need to change up a few races. I am pretty far away from both DLR and WDW (Vancouver, Canada), so I can only commit to one Disney race each year.

Other than marathon weekend or the Disneyland Half, I'm just not that compelled by the other races. Sure, a Star Wars themed race would be fun, but if you're not a huge fan, I doubt there's huge pull for your everyday runner.

If races became a bit more broad in theme, such as a Toy Story or and/or Pixar race weekend, I could see that having more of a draw.

Regarding costs, I actually think marathon weekend is very fairly priced. I've done few other major races that offer any kind of transportation service, free bag check (if I'm recalling correctly), very nice swag and medals, and decent snacks/race refreshments on course.

Of course, it's pricey with travel, hotel and parks, but if you're making a vacation out of it, where better to spend a few days recovering? You cannot beat that marathon course .

I wonder what the return rate is with RunDisney too. I know many people choose to only do Disney races or strive to complete most RunDisney offers, but there must be many more who are fine just doing the one Disney race or race weekend.
 
Regarding costs, I actually think marathon weekend is very fairly priced. I've done few other major races that offer any kind of transportation service, free bag check (if I'm recalling correctly), very nice swag and medals, and decent snacks/race refreshments on course.

I think the Disney races are way over priced. Maybe not the marathon itself since it's priced in the same tier as Chicago and much less than New York, but the half and shorter races are far more expensive than any other races of those distances I'm aware of. Aside from the transportation to/from the race, which most other races do not offer, all other major races (and many small ones too) provide bag check, medals, shirts, etc. Disney isn't any better or worse in those areas than its peers.

I won't be surprised to see the 5k, 10k, and Dopey sell out relatively quickly next month, but I think the full, half, and Goofy will be open and available for many months. The cost/benefit is no longer there for many people.
 
I do think they are getting to a point where things are getting expensive for people. Pushing up all the registration dates two months earlier than they have been is most likely a knee jerk reaction from them to get people to commit earlier than usual. Judging by the fact that every W&D race is still available after registration started yesterday tells me that this was not a good strategy. When 2018 Marathon Weekend goes on sale next month that should really be a good indicator. If at least Dopey does now sell out quickly, you can pretty much know that people are not willing to make very expensive race plans 11 months in advance. Adding something as simple as a race insurance option would probably help them fill registrations that far in advance. I'm not sure why they don't offer something like that.

As others have pointed out, RD races have lost a lot of their uniqueness. Last year at this time, I was considering running W&D again. However, once they changed it to a day race that was the same as other races and changed the after party, I lost all interest in wanting to do it.

There is then the large expense in going to a RD race. Last year, DW and I ran the RNR Savannah Marathon. Entry for that race was about $70. Hotel and food for the three nights we were there was a little more than half of what we would pay at Disney. Take away the running through the parks during the Disney Marathon, and I think the course was a little better in Savannah. There was more crowd support throughout entire race, and the post race perks were better. In my opinion, for this race, everything else was at least on par with RD at a fraction of the price.

All that being said, DW and I plan on running Dopey next year. Unless RD comes up with some unique offerings moving forward, it will probably be our last RD race for awhile.
 
I think we have hit that point. My POV is several factors:

1) Prices (for me and probably a lot of people) are hitting the breaking point. While I'd still do SOME Disney race when we go, $200 for a half marathon is pricey!

2) Lack of diversity in weekends. With the exception of Marathon weekend, all weekends are Kids races, 5K, 10K, and half marathon in the morning with a different theme painting each weekend. No different distance like the TOT 10-miler; no night races; no relay options (for marathon); etc. rD is staying with a blah formula and I think it's starting to hurt them. I can tell you, Wine & Dine had been on my bucket list, but once it got moved to the morning, I have almost zero interest in trying to run that weekend.

3) Pushing registration time dates earlier doesn't help IMO. Unless you know for a FACT you are going during that time, trying to plan and hope a trip is possible is probably preventing a lot of people from registering, especially if it's possible to lose all that money with no option of deferrals.

Now I have only ever done Marathon weekend, but next year it looks like I will be trying Princess Weekend as it helps with school vacations. Being a guy in a girl-focus event doesn't bother me (less time at expo!). However I do pay attention to sell out times and it's nice to see races not selling out within hours of opening.
 
I think it's good races don't sell out super fast, then people can't complain only part of their family got in, like during wine & dine registration a few years ago. Races used to not sell out, so it's back to being like that. I have a marathon pamphlet from way back when and the price was sooooo cheap compared to now, it's interesting to see how the RunDisney brand has evolved. Who knows really how many spots they have open for races anymore, we don't see percentages and it seems they reopen sold out races all the time these days. Maybe their numbers are open ended a lot now since they know they'll have no shows. Who knows really unless you manage their books I suppose. I prefer WDW over Disneyland though so can't see myself heading out west again anytime soon unless I win the lottery.
 

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