How bad could availability for 1BRs at VGF get, really? Trying to decide BLT or VGF2 direct

If someone on Facebook wants to book a 1BR at VGF, they can do it now with their SAP. They don't have to buy into a product they don't like to do it.
That's not the point. There are people who are current members that are going to buy the VGF2 points, not for the studios, but to book 1 and 2BR at 11 months. Your SSR SAP won't do that and they know it. Whether or not they have to buy the VGF2 points or not is of no consequence, as they are already saying they are going to do it.
 
If someone on Facebook wants to book a 1BR at VGF, they can do it now with their SAP. They don't have to buy into a product they don't like to do it.
The last couple of years, we've tried getting a 1BR for 3 nights together the first week in December booking at 7 mo and couldn't manage. I think didn't even see 2 nights together. But I know that's a busy time for DVC.
 
1BR VGF is extremely high point cost, that's the only reason it lasts as long as it does. We just don't know if VGF2 owners are trying to get bang for buck or just trying to get a door between them and the kids. The VGF 1BR is often available long after 7 months. I don't see how 2M new points will matters against the barrage of all the DVC system points.
We are a family of 4, and although we do use the dining area and like keeping food (fruit, breakfast items) in the kitchen, I'm not sure it's worth the point cost all the time. If we plan to bring friends (especially as our kids get older, if they are teens without their parents), 2 studios might actually be a solid second choice after a 2BR.

If you're trying to book for a larger party, I think there's a good argument for the VGF2 rooms. That's where I will be with grandma. I don't want to put her on a sleeper sofa in a 1BR, connecting rooms is perfect for us.
Yup. As @Her Dotness pointed out, the main things I'd give up are a K bed and washer/dryer in unit. Our family of 4 occasionally stays in studios anyway, so it remains to be seen what we will do. If my dad comes again, I would probably get 2 studios - he'd have a larger bed and be in a larger, more private space with the kids, who will sleep wherever they are told anyway.

Two RStus will cost fewer points than a 1br for a family of 4-5 feeling cramped in the current DxSt. So what the DxStu has the doubled bathroom. Its shower-sink-toilet and tub-sink combos don't compare that well to two full bathrooms (2 toilets, not 1) that family will have in two RStus.
Yes, this! I don't really want to share a bathroom with my dad anyway, and on our last trip, the bathroom situ in the 1br was challenging. (because of my dad being there and taking his time to use the bathroom in the AM ... )

I think this is what we're doing, thanks! Talked it over last night--if we like two things and can't decide between them, we'll should go with the one that makes more mathematical sense. We'll be quite happy and if we ever want to change it up and @RoseGold is right about availability, we can switch to VGF 1BR at 7 months. But we'll be happy either way. Going to wait until Monday or Tuesday to sign anything so the 10 days go into early March, but this is exciting! 🎆

Congratulations and good luck! I think you will be happy either way. We own at both BLT and VGF and are not getting rid of either any time soon. In fact, I sort of wish we had more BLT points to book a GV there. We always stay std view and have always gotten a pretty decent parks and fireworks view. 34 points/night in a 1br, last summer, was pretty awesome.
 
We are a family of 4, and although we do use the dining area and like keeping food (fruit, breakfast items) in the kitchen, I'm not sure it's worth the point cost all the time. If we plan to bring friends (especially as our kids get older, if they are teens without their parents), 2 studios might actually be a solid second choice after a 2BR.
I think this strategy will also heavily impact availability across the board. It basically turns 82 resort studios into 41 "super lock-off studios". If owners are consistently taking advantage of the point chart benefit of two connecting studios over a 1BR, then that's going to effectively take 41 of those brand new resort studios out of the mix perpetually.
 
My recollection, based on reading this board, is that VGF suffered from 'too few studios' as the big rooms were quite expensive and 'people were buying for studios.' I don't think it was quite to polynesian bungalows level, but that seemed to be the chatter about VGF studios before.

With that in mind, it seems sensible to build more studios. "balance" necessitates 1br being 'harder' to book, but only in the sense that right now 1br have too low of demand.
 
That's not the point. There are people who are current members that are going to buy the VGF2 points, not for the studios, but to book 1 and 2BR at 11 months. Your SSR SAP won't do that and they know it. Whether or not they have to buy the VGF2 points or not is of no consequence, as they are already saying they are going to do it.
Even so, I don't think getting a 1 or 2 bedroom villa will be a problem at 11 months. It may certainly change things for 7 month bookers during high demand times, but those larger villas are so expensive, that I just don't see it being a huge issue for owners who use the priority booking window. IMO, we won't know for several years. The pandemic "glut" hasn't cleared out yet and I think it will take at least 2 years for all the new points to get sold. But that's JMHO. YMMV.
 
To further my thoughts on the connecting studios. Again, right now, 82 of the units are connecting, or 41 pairs.

As a hypothetical exercise only, if in the first scenario we assume that they won't book them as connecting units, keeping the doors locked as if they didn't exist, then you have 82 resort studios available for 82 owners. In the second scenario, if we assume they will book them as connecting or "lock-off" units, you now have 41 units available for those 82 owners. Now, logically it's highly unlikely that the connecting pairs will always or even usually be booked as "lock-offs", but it still presents the possibility that a significant number of those plentiful studios may not be so plentiful.

Curiously, I'm hearing polar opposite reports from current VGF owners as to 11-month availability of 1BR units. Some say they are available, others say they are not. MANY say the point chart leaves a bad taste in their mouth, which suggests connecting studios will get gobbled up quickly, taking those 82 units out of play and lowering availability for those actually looking for lower point units.
 
There are people who are current members that are going to buy the VGF2 points, not for the studios, but to book 1 and 2BR at 11 months
This is the question I was getting at above. But, I think there is a lot of room for more 1BR and 2BR demand in the current resort, and that's what I was trying to parameterize.

How much higher? Enough to get to 70%? Good questions.
Looking at the historical availability charts posted elsewhere, there are exactly two weeks per year where a GFV owner booking right at 11 months might have trouble getting a 1BR or 2BR Standard view (the first two weeks of December, the peakest of peak times for DVC, and that's being addressed slowly through seasonal point adjustment). Conversely, there are only nine weeks per year where an owner wouldn't have the chance of some trouble making a Standard Studio reservation. That indicates to me a highly skewed distribution away from the current mix.
 
I know there are reasons it can't happen, but it would have been really nice if there was a way to create a connect resort studio category rather than pushing it through room requests. I understand many people's experience is that those requests get filled, but having it as a true booking category probably would alleviate a lot of the feared stress on the 1BR/2BR demand.
 
I know there are reasons it can't happen, but it would have been really nice if there was a way to create a connect resort studio category rather than pushing it through room requests. I understand many people's experience is that those requests get filled, but having it as a true booking category probably would alleviate a lot of the feared stress on the 1BR/2BR demand.
I feel like it could easily be complimented as an option for booking. But I wouldn't hold my breath that they'll do that.
 
I feel like it could easily be complimented as an option for booking. But I wouldn't hold my breath that they'll do that.
I would think they'd need to actually deed rooms under this designation? and it doesnt really sound like they are creating multiple booking categories beyond the different view types. If any of the moonlighting lawyers in here have thoughts lol...
 
I would think they'd need to actually deed rooms under this designation? and it doesnt really sound like they are creating multiple booking categories beyond the different view types. If any of the moonlighting lawyers in here have thoughts lol...
Oh yeah, you mean like the lock offs. But I was thinking of it in simpler terms: have a little checkbox that allows you to request that your two studios be connecting. The system could then gray out the checkbox once the 41 or so bookings have been made. Would there be any issue with this arrangement?
 
Oh yeah, you mean like the lock offs. But I was thinking of it in simpler terms: have a little checkbox that allows you to request that your two studios be connecting. The system could then gray out the checkbox once the 41 or so bookings have been made. Would there be any issue with this arrangement?
It would make room assignments more complicated and less flexible. It's not like a cruise where everyone checks in on the same day. Were I managing booking, I wouldn't willingly do something like that.
 
Oh yeah, you mean like the lock offs. But I was thinking of it in simpler terms: have a little checkbox that allows you to request that your two studios be connecting. The system could then gray out the checkbox once the 41 or so bookings have been made. Would there be any issue with this arrangement?
this would be amazing, so you're right its definitely never happening!
 
It would make room assignments more complicated and less flexible. It's not like a cruise where everyone checks in on the same day. Were I managing booking, I wouldn't willingly do something like that.
I mean, it does and it doesnt, its really just another instance of lockoff booking, which is already a pain point for VGF which has a bunch of them to begin with. Its a complication, but not a new one, just more rooms added to the "problem"
 
It would make room assignments more complicated and less flexible. It's not like a cruise where everyone checks in on the same day. Were I managing booking, I wouldn't willingly do something like that.
Right. Best just leave it at requests and members will just have to hope
 
I mean, it does and it doesnt, its really just another instance of lockoff booking, which is already a pain point for VGF which has a bunch of them to begin with. Its a complication, but not a new one, just more rooms added to the "problem"
I think this whole discussion is suggestive of how quickly those rooms are going to get gobbled up, and going back to the original question, whether or not it will really affect the demand on the existing 1BR units. It's certainly going to eat into what some would consider an abundance of new studios, and I'm still not convinced that you won't have a huge number of new owners booking two studios at a time and requesting connecting units to avoid 1BR point charts, with some bleeding into existing 1BRs by choice. Heavy competition for connecting resort studios may not allow too many current owners who now book 1BRs purely out of necessity, to jump over to the resort studios either.
 
The last couple of years, we've tried getting a 1BR for 3 nights together the first week in December booking at 7 mo and couldn't manage. I think didn't even see 2 nights together. But I know that's a busy time for DVC.
Look at current availability for the first week of December 2022. I don't think you will see much available now and we are still 9+ months out.
 
I would think they'd need to actually deed rooms under this designation? and it doesnt really sound like they are creating multiple booking categories beyond the different view types. If any of the moonlighting lawyers in here have thoughts lol...

Booking categories don’t have to be deeded that way. They can make it if they want.

They simply treat it like they do with BWV. All 2 bedrooms are lock offs. If someone books a studio, it takes the 2 bedroom off the list.

So, you have resort studio, and resort studio lock offs which is two rooms. The more booking categories there are, the harder it is.

Since they did not do it for PVB, it doesn’t seem they will for VGF.
 
I think this whole discussion is suggestive of how quickly those rooms are going to get gobbled up, and going back to the original question, whether or not it will really affect the demand on the existing 1BR units. It's certainly going to eat into what some would consider an abundance of new studios, and I'm still not convinced that you won't have a huge number of new owners booking two studios at a time and requesting connecting units to avoid 1BR point charts, with some bleeding into existing 1BRs by choice. Heavy competition for connecting resort studios may not allow too many current owners who now book 1BRs purely out of necessity, to jump over to the resort studios either.
I mean, booking two of these studios connecting is still going to be a 45-70 point per night investment, its not exactly a bargain, especially with how many new owners will buy the minimum 150. Doing this is going to be more akin to 2BRs, and really not 1BRs at all. So will there be demand for this? yeah, of course, but lets be real that many owners aren't going to have the budget for that.
 

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