I've been thinking more about the 5th gate, target markets and the such, and a true thrill park is starting to make more sense.
Here's how I see the timeline for a typical Disney guest:
Up to age 12 - Big on Disney theme parks.
Age 13-22 - Still a Disney fan, but probably just as happy to go to Six Flags. Wants the thrills, and doesn't want to be viewed as a little kid..
Age 23 until have children - Start to comeback to Disney more. Likes the thrills too.
Parents - Disney becomes their destination of choice again. The little ones love it, and they love to see their little ones love it.
Now, I know this is an extreme over-simplification, there are exceptions, etc, but I think it definitely has value.
So what does this tell us? Universal's primary target market is the market that Disney is weakest in, teenagers, and families with teenagers. Disney has always known this, but really hasn't had the caliber of competition in FL that Universal is providing.
What does Disney do? Well, one choice is do nothing about it, and let Universal have its market, while Disney concentrates on its current strength. But a 5th gate, that has world-class thrill rides and coasters, themed Disney style would allow Disney to keep some of the customers that they at least temporarily lose. A family with young children will still spend most of their time at MK, MGM and AK. As the kids get older, Epcot and the 5th gate get more of their time and money. When the children have children, its back to MK, MGM and AK. No longer does Universal become an automatic "must visit" for the thrill seekers.
Thoughts?