Island Tower at Polynesian Villas & Bungalows

[Grumpy by Birth]

I own at RIV and love it but I won’t lie that the idea of missing out on the next and newest projects was a persuasive sales tactic on why we decided to buy originally.

I'm happy with my Riviera purchase because we love staying there, but there is a small part of me that feels a bit perturbed because of the major selling point that "You'll need to own direct points to stay at any future resorts." And then they build a completely new tower and categorize it as an expansion of the existing resort (meaning that I could have stayed there with my second-class resale points and not needed direct points to stay in the new tower).

I use my Riviera points exclusively at Riviera since I've got plenty of resale points to stay in other locations, which is one of the reasons I'm not too unhappy with Poly tower being in the same association, because I can use my cheaper resale points to book there (I was going to have to wait until 7 months anyway to use my direct Riviera points for the Poly tower). But I'm sure there are more than a few people who feel like the marketing tactic of resale restrictions was deceptive since the tower was built in the future but not restricted.

When I bought at Riviera, the Poly tower hadn't even been announced, but what about people who bought direct after Poly tower was announced who incorrectly interpreted that it was a new resort and they would need direct points to stay there? I know... they should have "known better" but since Disney was keeping their cards close to the vest and not saying until the last minute that it was part of the existing resort/association, it's not hard to see how a new buyer would assume that the brand new tower being built was one of those new resorts Disney was referring to when telling them they could only use direct points at any future resorts.

 

[GoingSince1990]

Resale contracts will flow again and prices will fall, and with all the extra points, it may be closer to BLT prices long term than VGF.

With 11 month access to the spanking new tower and 7 month access to everything except RIV, CFW, and VDH, PVB resale is a hugely desirable product, and I would expect prices to continue to reflect that. The question is, what is the fair discount to direct PVB2 pricing to reflect (1) the inability to book RIV, CFW, and VDH, and (2) the lack of blue card privileges for new owners? Maybe $10-$20 per point or so?

 

[hockeydad21]

That’s very clearly a temporary situation driven by people trying to arbitrage a situation, just like we saw with VGC before VDH went on sale and VGF before VGF v1.1 went on sale.

Poly is a decent sized resort and is going to be huge with the tower. Resale contracts will flow again and prices will fall, and with all the extra points, it may be closer to BLT prices long term than VGF.

agreed on it being a temporary situation. It should improve, but I still think it’ll have a lower number of contracts than most other resorts despite being one of the largest.

Very possible on being closer to BLT, but we shall see! If I had to bet, I would think that PVB and VGF will be very close in cost per point over the next 10 years of resale. With that being said, if BLT knocks their refurb out of the park then maybe it’ll be closer.

 

[KimMcGowan]

The question is, what is the fair discount to direct PVB2 pricing to reflect (1) the inability to book RIV, CFW, and VDH, and (2) the lack of blue card privileges for new owners?

I am confused. Why would direct purchasers of Poly 2 not be able to qualify for Blue Card privileges? (Honest question)

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

The question is, what is the fair discount to direct PVB2 pricing to reflect (1) the inability to book RIV, CFW, and VDH, and (2) the lack of blue card privileges for new owners? Maybe $10-$20 per point or so?

I am confused. Why would direct purchasers of Poly 2 not be able to qualify for Blue Card privileges? (Honest question)

I think PP meant (paraphrasing) "what is the fair resale discount compared to direct PVB2 pricing to reflect resale's inability to book RIV, CFW, and VDH, and resale's lack of blue card privileges for new owners?"

 

[mkatsy]

The license/plan for the restaurant/bar has been approved

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

have you tried taking a look at the resale market recently? Not exactly an overflow of resale PVB inventory floating around out there.

That’s kind of my point though. Everyone has bought out all the resale PVB because why buy direct if you don’t have to? They’ve undercut their own sales. I’d wager that many who bought PVB resale recently did it believing they had a good chance at getting the new tower, specifically. If they wanted the longhouses they could have bought months and years ago when prices and availability were better. Of course, there’s no way to know this but I personally believe that many of those recent resale buyers would have most likely purchased direct if they were separate associations because that would have been the only way in. I would have.

Also, the idea that this decision to include it in PVB without restrictions is bad for business is wildly misleading. There are a number of reasons why it financially makes more sense than adding restrictions.

I never said it was a bad for business. I think you’ve misunderstood me saying they’ve undermined themselves with it being bad for business when it comes to this tower, but my commentary isn’t specifically tied to the this tower. I agree with your financial assessment (and have posted a few times) that I think this tower will have amazing sales numbers, maybe even record numbers for DVD.

I think maybe I didn’t make my point in that post clear enough. My point is not about how much money they are going to make off this tower and what the best way to do that is. My point is about the greater context of restrictions. If in 2019, DVD chose to implement restrictions on all new projects, then I believe they should have done so with the poly tower. This would have made their unpopular sales/business tactic of resale restrictions undeniable and very clearly the way forward, no longer the avoidable boogie man. In essence it would have codified it into DVC rules. That is what I believe they’ve undermined and it certainly makes me question the integrity and validity of their future decisions. We don’t have to rehash the debate if the tower is in fact a new resort or not or if DVD is actually flip flopping- I know many who agree and many who don’t, all opinions are valid, but I simply wanted to clarify my statement from earlier.

 

[OKW Lover]

I mentioned it in another thread but it bears repeating—by selling contracts that are 20% shorter, even if they sell the contracts for the same price they essentially get to recognize the revenue 20% faster, which is a 20% boost in yearly revenue for the contracts that they do sell.

Perhaps I'm not understanding your point, or my bean counting background is blinding me. This sounds like you think Disney recognizes (amortizes) revenue for a sale over the life of the contract. Am I correct? Because, I believe I read in their financial statements somewhere that they recognize the entire amount of the sale in the year they occur.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

That’s very clearly a temporary situation driven by people trying to arbitrage a situation, just like we saw with VGC before VDH went on sale and VGF before VGF v1.1 went on sale.

Poly is a decent sized resort and is going to be huge with the tower. Resale contracts will flow again and prices will fall, and with all the extra points, it may be closer to BLT prices long term than VGF.

I hope that DVC/DIS has a plan for crowd management they haven’t announced yet, but I could imagine a lot of original Poly owners wanting to sell if GCH, the monorail, the pools, and restaurants all become much more crowded over the next year. We love the Poly tiki theme and location by TTC, but it doesn’t feel relaxing to us (we typically travel at peak season). Hopefully Disney is thinking about ways to make a Poly feel less crowded for its guests.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

That’s kind of my point though. Everyone has bought out all the resale PVB because why buy direct if you don’t have to? They’ve undercut their own sales. I’d wager that many who bought PVB resale recently did it believing they had a good chance at getting the new tower, specifically. If they wanted the longhouses they could have bought months and years ago when prices and availability were better. Of course, there’s no way to know this but I personally believe that many of those recent resale buyers would have most likely purchased direct if they were separate associations because that would have been the only way in. I would have.

I don't think there's any basis to believe that selling without re-sale restrictions undercuts direct sales. The restrictions are a relatively new thing and they've never had trouble selling direct points on Disney property without restrictions.

GFV sales surely didn't suffer when they sold big pine key with no restrictions, even though everyone could just use re-sale points to stay there if they wanted.

Meanwhile every resort that they've sold with re-sale restrictions has been slow to sell. There's always been plenty of (mostly valid) excuses for Riviera sales, but with each passing disappointment (cabins, Disneyland Tower) it's getting harder not to acknowledge the correlation. Riviera sales have mostly recovered as time goes on, but it's no longer the only test case to look at.

If/When this Poly tower sells restriction-free points like hotcakes, what do you think is the takeaway for DVD?

 

[DVCsloth]

The way I see this working is it will be good for current Poly owners, but it remains to be seen how good this will be for new owners who are buying for the new tower? We should have some clues with the VGF, BPK addition being similar situation that Disney went about it in the opposite way.

 

[Sandisw]

have you tried taking a look at the resale market recently? Not exactly an overflow of resale PVB inventory floating around out there.

Also, the idea that this decision to include it in PVB without restrictions is bad for business is wildly misleading. There are a number of reasons why it financially makes more sense than adding restrictions. They get to resell the entire resort 8 years sooner, the margins are pretty small for DVD to flip resale to direct (think ROFRing 100k points just to make 1 million dollars - that’s a lot of contracts), and resorts sell faster when they’re unrestricted. I truly think this was an easy decision given that they had the option.

With that being said, I fully expect all future resorts to sadly come with restrictions.


this is an interesting assumption of every DVC owner’s financial status. There are lots of people who save up years to become DVC members, and my guess is those people wouldn’t be comfortable with flushing $20k or more down the toilet just because.

Maybe not but a timeshares resale value is not guaranteed and I personally think that it should not be considered.

When we bought initially, we had to own 10 years to be able to give it away and break even. But at 5 years and we could sell at 50% and still come out ahead.

DVC has the added benefit that as long as the parks exist it won’t ever be $0…but if one bought RIV at $160 and had to sell 5 years later at $80, I’d bet those owners are still in a good position against what it would have cost to stay a cash guest.

 

[Sandisw]

That’s kind of my point though. Everyone has bought out all the resale PVB because why buy direct if you don’t have to? They’ve undercut their own sales. I’d wager that many who bought PVB resale recently did it believing they had a good chance at getting the new tower, specifically. If they wanted the longhouses they could have bought months and years ago when prices and availability were better. Of course, there’s no way to know this but I personally believe that many of those recent resale buyers would have most likely purchased direct if they were separate associations because that would have been the only way in. I would have.

I never said it was a bad for business. I think you’ve misunderstood me saying they’ve undermined themselves with it being bad for business when it comes to this tower, but my commentary isn’t specifically tied to the this tower. I agree with your financial assessment (and have posted a few times) that I think this tower will have amazing sales numbers, maybe even record numbers for DVD.

I think maybe I didn’t make my point in that post clear enough. My point is not about how much money they are going to make off this tower and what the best way to do that is. My point is about the greater context of restrictions. If in 2019, DVD chose to implement restrictions on all new projects, then I believe they should have done so with the poly tower. This would have made their unpopular sales/business tactic of resale restrictions undeniable and very clearly the way forward, no longer the avoidable boogie man. In essence it would have codified it into DVC rules. That is what I believe they’ve undermined and it certainly makes me question the integrity and validity of their future decisions. We don’t have to rehash the debate if the tower is in fact a new resort or not or if DVD is actually flip flopping- I know many who agree and many who don’t, all opinions are valid, but I simply wanted to clarify my statement from earlier.

This is why I said I am still in shock as this strategy to do some and not others..meaning building it as a new addition as way to say “well, it doesn’t count as new” for restrictions.

It does devalue the message and TBH, leads me away from future direct points since RIV is my top resort and I can get that resale for a lot less.

But, it is what it is and now I know for sure it’s not a home resort for me.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't think there's any basis to believe that selling without re-sale restrictions undercuts direct sales. The restrictions are a relatively new thing and they've never had trouble selling direct points on Disney property without restrictions.

GFV sales surely didn't suffer when they sold big pine key with no restrictions, even though everyone could just use re-sale points to stay there if they wanted.

Meanwhile every resort that they've sold with re-sale restrictions has been slow to sell. There's always been plenty of (mostly valid) excuses for Riviera sales, but with each passing disappointment (cabins, Disneyland Tower) it's getting harder not to acknowledge the correlation. Riviera sales have mostly recovered as time goes on, but it's no longer the only test case to look at.

If/When this Poly tower sells restriction-free points like hotcakes, what do you think is the takeaway for DVD?

BPK did indeed struggle to sell for many months and it took severe discounting using the MB program to spark sales again.

RIV, with restrictions, outsold it when it was less expensive. It’s the overdl price that leads the sales numbers vs restrictions and any other factor

I predict that Poly tower will sell well the first few months, like VGf ans VDH did, and will then drop off when its selling for more than RIV and CFW.

 

[hockeydad21]

That’s kind of my point though. Everyone has bought out all the resale PVB because why buy direct if you don’t have to? They’ve undercut their own sales. I’d wager that many who bought PVB resale recently did it believing they had a good chance at getting the new tower, specifically. If they wanted the longhouses they could have bought months and years ago when prices and availability were better. Of course, there’s no way to know this but I personally believe that many of those recent resale buyers would have most likely purchased direct if they were separate associations because that would have been the only way in. I would have.

I never said it was a bad for business. I think you’ve misunderstood me saying they’ve undermined themselves with it being bad for business when it comes to this tower, but my commentary isn’t specifically tied to the this tower. I agree with your financial assessment (and have posted a few times) that I think this tower will have amazing sales numbers, maybe even record numbers for DVD.

I think maybe I didn’t make my point in that post clear enough. My point is not about how much money they are going to make off this tower and what the best way to do that is. My point is about the greater context of restrictions. If in 2019, DVD chose to implement restrictions on all new projects, then I believe they should have done so with the poly tower. This would have made their unpopular sales/business tactic of resale restrictions undeniable and very clearly the way forward, no longer the avoidable boogie man. In essence it would have codified it into DVC rules. That is what I believe they’ve undermined and it certainly makes me question the integrity and validity of their future decisions. We don’t have to rehash the debate if the tower is in fact a new resort or not or if DVD is actually flip flopping- I know many who agree and many who don’t, all opinions are valid, but I simply wanted to clarify my statement from earlier.

While people pounced on the resale contracts recently, you’re still only talking about 20-35 contracts overall, some of which got ROFR’d. Even if 200 resale Poly contracts (at 200 points on average) were to make it through ROFR in the year 2024, you’re still talking about 1% or less of the total number of points Disney will be responsible to sell for this tower. It’s peanuts to them in the grand scheme of things.

Perhaps I'm not understanding your point, or my bean counting background is blinding me. This sounds like you think Disney recognizes (amortizes) revenue for a sale over the life of the contract. Am I correct? Because, I believe I read in their financial statements somewhere that they recognize the entire amount of the sale in the year they occur.

You’re correct that they recognize the amount in the year they occur…but Disney gets to do this once every 50 years, and in the poly towers’ case in 42 years. They’re essentially paying off the building twice in our lifetime, which we will see fairly soon with the 2042 resorts. It’s a great business model for both disney and consumers.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

So… we’re going to learn a lot more before cash bookings start on June 4th, right???

 

[kilik64]

I don't think there's any basis to believe that selling without re-sale restrictions undercuts direct sales. The restrictions are a relatively new thing and they've never had trouble selling direct points on Disney property without restrictions.

GFV sales surely didn't suffer when they sold big pine key with no restrictions, even though everyone could just use re-sale points to stay there if they wanted.

Meanwhile every resort that they've sold with re-sale restrictions has been slow to sell. There's always been plenty of (mostly valid) excuses for Riviera sales, but with each passing disappointment (cabins, Disneyland Tower) it's getting harder not to acknowledge the correlation. Riviera sales have mostly recovered as time goes on, but it's no longer the only test case to look at.

If/When this Poly tower sells restriction-free points like hotcakes, what do you think is the takeaway for DVD?

The takeaway will be that a new building at a loved resort on the monorail loop was always gonna be popular.

The three you listed all have major issues, vdh has horrible tot that makes it a no for a lot of people, and the cabins are lol for majority of people with those crazy high dues. It’s not a deluxe property by any stretch (can debate all you want but it’s not). Plus people knew poly was coming.

So yea all the restricted resorts have problems outside of restrictions that have hurt their sales. I’m sure restrictions are a part, however big or small, but I think other issues are larger problems for most potential buyers

 

[hockeydad21]

The takeaway will be that a new building at a loved resort on the monorail loop was always gonna be popular.

The three you listed all have major issues, vdh has horrible tot that makes it a no for a lot of people, and the cabins are lol for majority of people with those crazy high dues. It’s not a deluxe property by any stretch (can debate all you want but it’s not). Plus people knew poly was coming.

So yea all the restricted resorts have problems outside of restrictions that have hurt their sales. I’m sure restrictions are a part, however big or small, but I think other issues are larger problems for most potential buyers

Couldn’t agree more

 

[Sandisw]

So… we’re going to learn a lot more before cash bookings start on June 4th, right???

My guess is no, other than try to make a connection between the cash rates and what might be a point range.

IIRC, The info for VDH last year did not come out until after they had cash booking had begun.

My guess is late June to early July before we get more info. I think it will be found in the declarations from the OCC site and posted here before DVD announces.

 

[mkatsy]

I left the original author attached at the top of this photo, because I don’t want to be disingenuous. I did not find this concept art from the early ‘70 … I lifted it from Facebook now that that’s out of the way. I can see the similarities…