NOAA Weather forecast.... FYI for those with Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 plans

[Geemo]

Here's part of an article with a forecast for Fall and Winter weather for the west coast.

April 30, 2015 the Daily KOS
NOAA forecast of the departure from normal of Pacific ocean sea surface temperatures. NOAA's CFSv2 model predicts a strong El Nino with much above normal sea surface temperatures along the west coasts of south and north America up to January, 2016.

The forecast of a strong El Nino brings good news to California. NOAA's CFSv2 model is forecasting above well above normal precipitation for October through December, 2015. Because models are forecasting El Nino conditions to continue through January 2016 there is a good chance that heavy winter rains will break the California drought. The downside will be massive landslides and flooding in areas that have been affected by recent wild fires.

California is likely to get relief from the drought in November and December 2015.

The full article is here.
http://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/04...West-Coast-Extreme-Marine-Die-Off-Developing#

 

[Mommy2PrincessAbby]

Maybe empty parks for our trip

 

[GatorChris]

As a Californian, that is really great news. As a family planning on hitting DL and Legoland early November, I'm a little worried.

 

[whjensen]

As a Californian, that is really great news. As a family planning on hitting DL and Legoland early November, I'm a little worried.

As a Seattle guy, I can't really sympathize. Too many coaches telling me that 33 degrees and raining builds character.

To be honest, one of my boys' favorite memories of DL is getting stuck in a rainstorm in 2012 and being able to cycle continuously on Big Thunder as more normal folk fled to cover. And then came the lightning and thunder. That made the mad dash for Pirates a little more interesting.

Glad to see that California is likely to get some rain, even at the expense of touring.

 

[figment_jii]

I also think that's great news. I'm a little skeptical about weather predictions that far out, but I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope for a wet (and more importantly, snowy) winter.

 

[agamble]

As a Seattle guy, I can't really sympathize. Too many coaches telling me that 33 degrees and raining builds character.

To be honest, one of my boys' favorite memories of DL is getting stuck in a rainstorm in 2012 and being able to cycle continuously on Big Thunder as more normal folk fled to cover. And then came the lightning and thunder. That made the mad dash for Pirates a little more interesting.

Glad to see that California is likely to get some rain, even at the expense of touring.

I grew up in Southern WA where rain is part of life. Now I'm in CA and it is great news that we could have a wet fall/winter to help with drought conditions. However, there are some big difference between rain in the NW and more dry climates. I lived and taught in Las Vegas for years, the elementary schools there do not have gyms, just a classroom and then they do most activities outside. My daughter's school in CA is the same and the classrooms are all outside entry with no covered walk areas. Also the blacktop areas are not covered on the playgrounds. We almost always played outside on rainy days as kids, schools here cancel recess. It's no wonder Californians run from the rain. It did rain during our trip to Disneyland December 2. The lines were short at DCA with minimal crowds; a lot of people were wearing rain covers.

 

[whjensen]

Yeah, we always played outside..period, regardless of rain. We had a gym but we weren't allowed in it except for the non-existent (non-funded specialist) gym class. I know some schools don't really have big enough lunch rooms either.

But all the same, Disney is still great in the rain (and less locals who just choose to wait until the next sunny day!)

 

[Geemo]

As a Seattle guy, I can't really sympathize. Too many coaches telling me that 33 degrees and raining builds character.

To be honest, one of my boys' favorite memories of DL is getting stuck in a rainstorm in 2012 and being able to cycle continuously on Big Thunder as more normal folk fled to cover. And then came the lightning and thunder. That made the mad dash for Pirates a little more interesting.

Glad to see that California is likely to get some rain, even at the expense of touring.

PNW weather is cold and wet for most of the year. It's only 50* and hailing outside right now.
That's one reason to book a trip in Jan or Feb. SoCal weather in Jan and Feb can be like our summer months.

We'll have to wait and see if the forecast/prediction pans out? If it does it will really help with the water situation.

Geemo

 

[LALA8971]

This is good news (if it pans out) for our December trip and great news for California. Of course, folks from Oregon have webbed feet, so we can just swim to the next ride!

 

[beachdreamr1229]

So, this is great news for California, but I've watched these El Nino predictions for the last 2 years. Both times, a strong El Nino was predicted for the Fall in May and both times, chances completely fizzled out by September. Either way, rainy days at Disneyland are the best days because that means there won't be as many crowds. If the rain is too terrible for a trip, which can happen in a true strong El Nino, we'll just reschedule. I do feel for the people from out of state who come in for trips expecting sun, but seriously, we need this. My town is starting to look like the desert.

 

[JadeDarkstar]

I have mixed feelings for this. Uh oh more wind and rain. I hope I can see the FW at least once, but if the fireworks are canceled does any one here think that maybe the paint the night will continue even if the FW get canceled?

 

[ImDMous]

Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it. They have been predicting El Nino for a few years now, hasn't happened yet...

I love rain so if it does actually happen, YAY!

 

[RKKUNK]

Last year they said that CA was going to have an El Nino and that didn't pan out. Let's just hope they are right this time.

That is another difference that we took note of in Florida at WDW. Most of their lines were in places that were covered or inside.

 

[GatorChris]

"For those of you who don't habla espanol, El Nino is spanish for.....the....Nino." - Chris Farley

 

[figment_jii]

NOAA has updated their El Nino forecast for 2015. It's now at 80% (up from 60%).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

[gottalovepluto]

I hope so! Fingers crossed, prayers sent, all bases covered! Although I still find myself in the "believe it when I see it" camp. Last year's prediction for a medium to light el nino never materialized as all of the sudden those ocean temperatures they watch changed, seriously hope that is not the case this time. Although I feel a little silly doubting rain can come when there is a thunderstorm outside my house here in CA right now

 

[jetskigrl]

I really hope that is right but add me in with the other skeptics. They have been saying that for too many years now and then winter comes but the rain doesn't.

But I will be very happy to have them prove me wrong this time

 

[agamble]

I was just wondering about this today with the rain in CA and unseasonably cooler temps. It made me think that maybe we really will get an El Nino. I think our rain is over in central CA for now, but it looks like Disneyland could still get more rain tomorrow. One forecast I saw was predicting showers next Friday, but another didn't say that. I think it's too far out to know for sure. I do wonder if crowds would be less on Friday if it did rain, but probably not unless if poured enough to cancel the parade/firework debuts.

 

[sheetz]

I was just wondering about this today with the rain in CA and unseasonably cooler temps. It made me think that maybe we really will get an El Nino.

Supposedly we're already in an El Nino right now and it's contributed to the current storm during a normally dry period. The question is whether or not the conditions will remain/strengthen until the coming winter.

 

[HopLow1968]

Oregon here, so rain wouldn't bother me at all...except if it causes problems with rides and shows.