October Crowds?

[spicedparrot]

Curious what everyone thinks crowds will be like towards the end of October (particularly the holiday week of 19-24). Do you think they'll be as slow as they are now, especially with the Halloween activities cancelled? Or do you think the pent-up demand will start to show up that week?

Of course COVID-19 effects all of this - how will numbers going down, or alternatively, spiking, change your guess on crowd size at the parks?

 

[georgina]

Curious what everyone thinks crowds will be like towards the end of October (particularly the holiday week of 19-24). Do you think they'll be as slow as they are now, especially with the Halloween activities cancelled? Or do you think the pent-up demand will start to show up that week?

Of course COVID-19 effects all of this - how will numbers going down, or alternatively, spiking, change your guess on crowd size at the parks?

Not sure which holiday you are referring to, Columbus Day is Oct 12?

I have tentative plans to be there Oct 17-28 but will make the final decision on whether or not to go the week before. I don't think anyone can predict crowds during this unprecedented time.

 

[runjulesrun]

Selfishly, I am hoping they will still be low. As a stockholder, I hope things are improving. We are looking at heading down for a few nights in October. I think it all depends on Covid though. I have clients booked for October who are still planning on going but they won't make a final decision until a week or two prior to when they are supposed to travel. It really is anyone's guess at this point.

 

[Pixie Dusted Dee]

What Holiday?
Columbus Day?
Most schools only have that day off not a week.

With all the restrictions I'm guessing it will be as low crowd as it is now.

 

[Micca]

It really is anyone's guess at this point.

I think so too. Things change almost daily, no telling whether things get better/worse/or stay the same. October has traditionally been very busy, but even with major covid improvement I don't see it getting as busy as usual. I can certainly understand your clients taking a wait & see approach.

 

[spicedparrot]

Yes, was thinking of Columbus Day, goofed on the holiday. I know its anyone's guess. However, there is a lot of collective experience on this Board. As such, I am curious in knowing people's guesses - my general experience that even if its guessing - if lots of people guess the same way, it can sometimes be more predictive.

 

[Gina-Gina-Bo-Bina]

I honestly don't think you really CAN make an educated guess for that far out. What will Covid numbers look like in Florida by then? Better? Worse? Will there be new travel restrictions in place? Will any current travel restrictions be relaxed? Will the state be riddled with hurricanes all month?

We are booked for October 16th to 23rd, so i understand the desire to "know". But making any guesses is dang near impossible.....and futile....in the current state of the world.

 

[Teamubr]

Disney either thinks it will be slow or they are trying to make it slow with the reduced park hours starting in September. I'll be there from Oct 8-17. I'm also hoping for crowds similar to what we are seeing right now. I was down a few years ago over Columbus Day. The holiday was pretty busy, but the rest of the week wasn't bad. I wish more was going to be open (restaurants, fireworks, parades), but I understand the reasoning. I've been many, many times so missing out isn't a big deal. If this was a once every 5 years trip, I'd be rescheduling, crowds or no crowds.

j

 

[GADisneyDad14]

My opinion is theme park and travel demand will be low for a prolonged period of time and any eventual change in the trajectory will be a slow shift, definitely not a light switch. Nothing is going to materially change in terms of the virus and underlying global economic health / travel preferences to fundamentally influence guest demand 60 days from now. Disney will continue to tweak with operations, hours, capacity to suit their needs so lower crowds could still feel like higher crowds than what is being experienced now. Impossible to predict. A whole new world. IMO.

 

[Wild4Walt]

I think it will depend on when Food and Wine ends ( I think this is still open ended at this time. ). Pete said on the August 18th show that the parks have not been at 30% yet so I can see an increase around Halloween even without MSSSHP. I also think once the Holiday decorations go up in November that there will be more people there to see that until the end of the year.

 

[gharter]

We have gone in October for the last few years, and loved it. The weekends were crowded, but week days, not too bad.
This year is anyones guess.
We just canceled our October trip due to travel concerns, as much as we hated to do that.

 

[Gypsybear]

We'll be there 10/24 - 11/01....we hope the crowds are low, but we're not gonna expect that to be the case. Halloween has traditionally been a big draw, especially Halloween Day, so we shall see....

 

[mindeola]

We will be there October First. I expect it to increase a bit in terms of people visiting, but I am going to hope I am incorrect!

 

[ELT]

we are going October 19-23. I hope the crowds are still low

 

[_19disnA]

My opinion is theme park and travel demand will be low for a prolonged period of time and any eventual change in the trajectory will be a slow shift, definitely not a light switch. Nothing is going to materially change in terms of the virus and underlying global economic health / travel preferences to fundamentally influence guest demand 60 days from now. Disney will continue to tweak with operations, hours, capacity to suit their needs so lower crowds could still feel like higher crowds than what is being experienced now. Impossible to predict. A whole new world. IMO.

I agree. Just look at how little progress there has been on any effective treatment/cure for covid since March even though the medical experts for the entire world have been working to find one. The virus remains HIGHLY contagious and some percent of people will become seriously ill/die while others recover with lifelong medical issues. Some have little/no symptoms and there is no way to tell which category you might be in. Talk about vaccines include a lot of wishful thinking and optimistic rhetoric, but no one yet knows if any of these will actually work. Reputable medical professionals doubt the Russian claim to developing a vaccine. Assuming an effective vaccine is developed (which by no means is a certainty), it will likely take the better part of a year to manufacture/distribute/vaccinate the entire country, since there are huge logistical issues to manage. So for all of these reasons, there is no magical 'light switch' anyone will be able to turn off to just make this go away anytime soon. Any type of travel/vacation plans need to comprehend these realities.

 

[nkereina]

I believe that the MK park reservations for Halloween have already filled up, if that's any indication. I think the current park capacity levels will still be in place in October, so it will only be as busy as that allows for. As far as whether it will be any less busy, I think it will depend on how Florida's numbers do between now and then and if there's any sign of a resurgence by then. For us here in NY, we have a late October trip booked too and are anxiously waiting to see whether the NY quarantine mandate will be lifted by then. If it is, you may see a lot of us

 

[pucknasty]

We are going the last week of October. I anticipate higher wait times than what people are reporting currently but I don't expect it to be packed by any means.

 

[dagored]

I believe that the MK park reservations for Halloween have already filled up, if that's any indication. I think the current park capacity levels will still be in place in October, so it will only be as busy as that allows for. As far as whether it will be any less busy, I think it will depend on how Florida's numbers do between now and then and if there's any sign of a resurgence by then. For us here in NY, we have a late October trip booked too and are anxiously waiting to see whether the NY quarantine mandate will be lifted by then. If it is, you may see a lot of us

Was lifted about a week ago.

 

[nkereina]

Was lifted about a week ago.

No. I'm referring to the mandate in NY that requires people traveling to NY from FL (among almost all other states) to quarantine for 14 days. So, if I were to travel to FL, I'd have to quarantine for 14 days when I return home which would be impossible to do with work. I know a lot of other people here in NY who are anxious to travel to FL, so I imagine there will be an influx of us once that's lifted.

FL did lift their tri-state area quarantine mandate (NY, NJ, CT) a few weeks ago, thankfully.

 

[stinkpickle]

We're booked for 10/27-11/3 and don't know what to expect.