Owning Riviera with Restrictions

[RoseGold]

I don't have an ideological problem buying RIV resale, I still might do it if the price gets low enough.

I think you have to be prepared to book far out and possibly lose points if you don't go enough. Or, be prepared to rent out your reservation, which can be hard to do if you aren't going peak or it's the Monday and Tuesday on the split stay.

I shuffle a lot of contracts and points and I've been able to swap stuff in last minute. RIV resale will be the opposite experience.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Does anyone have any feedback on owning Riviera resale?

Is banking and borrowing working out, or do you feel like you’re ending up with points you can’t use or rent out? Since you can only use RIV resale at RIV, I’m wondering if points go to waste…

Can you purchase one time use points at RIV when you don’t have enough?

Keep in mind that the experience of booking today will not be the experience in 20 years. The quantity of points owned at Riviera that are resale currently is low but that will increase over time. It's not a big leap to assume that booking peak times will get progressively harder as time goes on.

How bad will it be? Hard to say as we haven't seen this scenario within DVC yet.

 

[intamin]

This thread is serendipitous as we are in the process of potentially signing an offer for Riviera Resale. What did you pay pp and how big was your contract? We just had our offer accepted on a 200pt contract for $118pp. I am nervous that the restrictions will come into play for us sometimes. We own at BWV and SSR as well so we could theoretically roll points over for big stays every other year. I just worry this is too much pp for the value as you can't stay anywhere else?

That's a great price per point for 200 RIV resale points. Whether or not you'll be affected by the resale restrictions down the line in terms of it being harder to book remains to be seen. What you do have right now is a great price per point at a great resort so enjoy .

 

[Brian Noble]

Are RIV resale points eligible for trading into Interval?

Yes. It's still not a great value, but it is possible.

 

[tjkraz]

Keep in mind that the experience of booking today will not be the experience in 20 years. The quantity of points owned at Riviera that are resale currently is low but that will increase over time. It's not a big leap to assume that booking peak times will get progressively harder as time goes on.

There's zero differentiation between resale and direct in the 11-7 month window. Every point is exclusively bookable at its Home resort including Riviera resale. People buying Riviera resale should expect no difference today vs 20 years from now when booking during that Home resort advantage period.

Inside of 7 months, things are much less certain. Resale points at restricted resorts will always be something that should only be considered by long-term planners.

 

[floribr1]

There's zero differentiation between resale and direct in the 11-7 month window. Every point is exclusively bookable at its Home resort including Riviera resale. People buying Riviera resale should expect no difference today vs 20 years from now when booking during that Home resort advantage period.

Inside of 7 months, things are much less certain. Resale points at restricted resorts will always be something that should only be considered by long-term planners.

I agree with your first point about there being zero difference between resale and direct within the 11-7 month window. But how can we assume that there will be no difference in owner behavior 20 years from now compared to today? With an ever-increasing number of resale owners (i.e., subject to the "Riviera only" restriction), isn't it reasonable to expect that owner behavior may continue to shift towards "book as early as possible," effectively shutting some other owners out?

Of course, time will tell... But seems to me like a reasonable concern.

 

[tjkraz]

With an ever-increasing number of resale owners (i.e., subject to the "Riviera only" restriction), isn't it reasonable to expect that owner behavior may continue to shift towards "book as early as possible," effectively shutting some other owners out?

Having witnessed changes to DVC member booking patterns for 20 years now, the simplest answer to this is: aren't we already at a point where people book as early as possible??

The rate of resales is pretty low..less than 1.5% of all points each year across all resorts. Saratoga Springs (which coincidentally is about 20 years old) had about 1.3% of its points change hands via private transaction in 2021 and 0.9% in 2022.

That's for a relatively mature resort. Riviera resales accounted for only about 22k points COMBINED in 2021-2022. That's less than .5% of Riviera's 4.4 million declared points being re-sold over the span of 2 years.

And these raw transaction numbers cannot account for points which are sold multiple times. Even *IF* a resort averaged 1% of its points resold each year, that doesn't mean 10% of the points are resales after 10 years because some contracts are bound to change hands more than once.

Throw all these factors together and I'd be shocked if Riviera was more than 15% resale when it hits 20 years old. (Perhaps far less than that since it's only averaging .25% each of the last 2 years. The mere existence of the resale restrictions--and potential financial loss--may make owners less inclined to sell.)

Nobody will ever be completely "shut out" because there's room for everyone to use their points. That's the point of a timeshare. And the vast majority of owners will have full direct purchase rights for many years to come.

Members' booking aggressiveness has long varied from one resort to the next. Owners of BCV, BWV and VGC should have very different expectations for booking their Home resort than owners of SSR or OKW. Perhaps the simplest conclusion to draw is that Riviera will be more like BWV than SSR. Doom and gloom predictions of people not being able to get into Riviera inside of the 11 month window are pretty extreme, IMO.

 

[take36]

Having witnessed changes to DVC member booking patterns for 20 years now, the simplest answer to this is: aren't we already at a point where people book as early as possible??

The rate of resales is pretty low..less than 1.5% of all points each year across all resorts. Saratoga Springs (which coincidentally is about 20 years old) had about 1.3% of its points change hands via private transaction in 2021 and 0.9% in 2022.

That's for a relatively mature resort. Riviera resales accounted for only about 22k points COMBINED in 2021-2022. That's less than .5% of Riviera's 4.4 million declared points being re-sold over the span of 2 years.

And these raw transaction numbers cannot account for points which are sold multiple times. Even *IF* a resort averaged 1% of its points resold each year, that doesn't mean 10% of the points are resales after 10 years because some contracts are bound to change hands more than once.

Throw all these factors together and I'd be shocked if Riviera was more than 15% resale when it hits 20 years old. (Perhaps far less than that since it's only averaging .25% each of the last 2 years. The mere existence of the resale restrictions--and potential financial loss--may make owners less inclined to sell.)

Nobody will ever be completely "shut out" because there's room for everyone to use their points. That's the point of a timeshare. And the vast majority of owners will have full direct purchase rights for many years to come.

Members' booking aggressiveness has long varied from one resort to the next. Owners of BCV, BWV and VGC should have very different expectations for booking their Home resort than owners of SSR or OKW. Perhaps the simplest conclusion to draw is that Riviera will be more like BWV than SSR. Doom and gloom predictions of people not being able to get into Riviera inside of the 11 month window are pretty extreme, IMO.

I definitely book as early as I can and almost always book "something" when my 11 month window opens for the school breaks. This is in contrast to prior to maybe 2016(?) when I would book maybe 6 months out and able to get just about whatever I wanted. I use to also just call give a the dates I can go and the cast member will just book for me. Now its up before the sun is out and furiously click.

I also had to learn about "walking" reservations which is way too much work but it is the only way to get certain dates and rooms. I am not very picky neither, regular room is fine for the most part (as I don't have much points) and am willing to borrow for more point heavy accommodations if that is all that's left (except the bungalows/cabins which I will never have enough!).

I was actually shut out of a few trips which has led me to trying out the 3rd party hotels/resorts and I actually like them very much. So now when I am shut out I just book those and bank my points forward but I can see hardcore disney fans not wanting to stay out of the bubble and being disappointed.

 

[CarolynFH]

Nobody will ever be completely "shut out" because there's room for everyone to use their points. That's the point of a timeshare.

Exactly - as long as all owners book within the 11-7 month window, there's room for everyone to use their points. They might not all be able to book the first week of December, for instance, but they can all book their home resort.

The ones being shut out would be non-owners who can't book until 7 months or later, if none of the owners swap out.

 

[JodyK]

While no one would get completely shut out in the 11 - 7 month window, if booking patterns changed enough, it may be possible that you wouldn't be able to book consecutive nights if things got really bad. That is obviously a worst-case scenario I don't see happening, but I guess it is possible.

 

[Brian Noble]

it may be possible that you wouldn't be able to book consecutive nights if things got really bad.

I'm not sure why this is so. If you can book the first night at the 11-month mark exactly, then you can also book any subsequent nights barring inventory management issues (taking rooms out for refurbishment, etc.) That's because no one could have earlier booked your "second night" without also booking your "first night".

 

[J-Dog]

The only way that I can see the resale restrictions affecting the 7-11 month window, would be in the sense that restricted owners will book at 11 months, whereas if those people had owned unrestricted points, they may have instead opted to leave the 7-11 month window open and would have waited until 7 months to book a different resort.

Of course, the number of people who this would affect seems minimal.

 

[JodyK]

I'm not sure why this is so. If you can book the first night at the 11-month mark exactly, then you can also book any subsequent nights barring inventory management issues (taking rooms out for refurbishment, etc.) That's because no one could have earlier booked your "second night" without also booking your "first night".

I meant the 7 - 11 month window as a whole, not at the 11-month mark exactly, particularly towards the end of the window.

 

[zavandor]

I'm not sure why this is so. If you can book the first night at the 11-month mark exactly, then you can also book any subsequent nights barring inventory management issues (taking rooms out for refurbishment, etc.) That's because no one could have earlier booked your "second night" without also booking your "first night".

That's the Riviera doomsday scenario.
If a critical mass of resale owners start to walk earlier and earlier to book high demand dates, it could get to a point where everyone walk everything all year around. Which means people will be left gathering the scraps after walkers pass.
Practically in this scenario the whole Riviera would became the same as AKV value, making for a pretty miserable life.
Will it happen? I think it's unlikely but who knows. I know what I would do if I owned Riviera resale: I would not risk it and I would walk all my bookings. The question is just how many people would be as paranoid?

 

[Brian Noble]

If everyone walks everything all year round, then the waitlist will be very very useful.

It doesn't work both ways, and most people wont' plan that far in advance. The chances of doomsday for the resort in particular are low.

Now, the chances of doomsday for the resort's low-point studios are very different. But that's no different than any other in-demand resort with fewer studios than would be supported by demand, where this happens already.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

The rate of resales is pretty low..less than 1.5% of all points each year across all resorts. Saratoga Springs (which coincidentally is about 20 years old) had about 1.3% of its points change hands via private transaction in 2021 and 0.9% in 2022.

That's for a relatively mature resort. Riviera resales accounted for only about 22k points COMBINED in 2021-2022. That's less than .5% of Riviera's 4.4 million declared points being re-sold over the span of 2 years.

And these raw transaction numbers cannot account for points which are sold multiple times. Even *IF* a resort averaged 1% of its points resold each year, that doesn't mean 10% of the points are resales after 10 years because some contracts are bound to change hands more than once.

Do you have a source for those numbers? That is interesting data and I would like to look into it more.

Nobody will ever be completely "shut out" because there's room for everyone to use their points. That's the point of a timeshare. And the vast majority of owners will have full direct purchase rights for many years to come.

Yes but the vast majority of timeshares get bad reputations because while there is availability for everything sold, it is often not what the customer is looking for. With different room categories and demand varying throughout the year... saying there will be something available is not super comforting.

 

[tjkraz]

Do you have a source for those numbers? That is interesting data and I would like to look into it more.

There's some publicly available data here:

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...oga-springs-animal-kingdom-and-bay-lake-tower

Unfortunately the most recent data is a year old, but still covers 2021 and half of 2022. I have access to some additional data which was referenced in my response.

Yes but the vast majority of timeshares get bad reputations because while there is availability for everything sold, it is often not what the customer is looking for. With different room categories and demand varying throughout the year... saying there will be something available is not super comforting.

As the old saying goes, you don't build a church for easter Sunday. There are always going to be resorts, room types and dates which are in greater demand than supply. There are already pockets where demand far exceeds what's available--especially during more popular times of the year (VGC, BCV, BWV Standard View, AKV Value and Club, BLT Standard and Theme Park View, OKW Grand Villas, etc.)

I would not recommend someone buying a Riviera resale contract with the expectation that they'll consistently get a Standard View studio the first 2 weeks of December. There is undeniably greater risk assumed by purchasers of those resale contracts.

At the same time, I don't think competition from these restricted resale owners is going to impact Riviera availability any more than other locations. As I said, I expect Riviera to be more like today's BWV than SSR.

 

[intamin]

Yes. It's still not a great value, but it is possible.

Do you know if points in holding can be traded into Interval? Or banked/borrowed points?

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't know for sure. I think there are some restrictions on points in holding (only for confirmations in the holding window, maybe). I think banked/borrowed points can be used.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I wonder about the likelihood of Riv direct going on promotion along with Poly 2 when that goes up for sale. That's sort of what I'm hoping for. Maybe something for current members like $190-200pp again.

I'm always big on resale until I realize that it saves only something like 30-40% off of the upfront cost, after which dues are identical for the life of the contract, and so the overall savings at end-of-day (total costs of ownership) compared to direct are much less than they'd appear. In the case of Riviera with all this concern about being stuck with expiring points if needing to cancel within 7 months, potential difficulty selling down the line if necessary, etc, I'm trying to focus less on the difference between $217 vs $135 and more on the larger picture. Saving $5-10k upfront may not be worth it.