Poll: Has the 2042 Bubble Burst?

[disneylandtour]

Problem with Riviera resale is Riviera only. I’ve seen it as low as $115 sold.

Over the weekend, there was a listing for Riviera at $113 (asking).

 

[kboo]

I suspect that most people who would gladly own BWV/BCV just wouldn't really pay the $30/pt alternative cash rate and maybe view a direct rental from an owner (in the DVC case say at $18-$20/pt) as a fairer comparison. With dues getting close to $9/pt now your payback period becomes about 12-14 years. Still less than 18 years, but it's well over 8 years.

Also - I do think it depends on whether you're already an owner somewhere else and have other options. (@TikiRob 's 4 categories) For winter holidays, we stay at our home resorts and like it, and don't expect to stay anywhere else. (I suppose one day we might waitlist CCV/BRV but for now, our home resorts feel pretty magical at that time.)
For food and wine, we've not had a problem switching at 7 mo and we have Riviera as a "backup".

In the past 10 years we've stayed at BWV and BCV each about 3x, mostly on our own points, mostly at lower volume times. We love BWV/BCV and almost bought one of them as our first contract. We decided to wait and see how hard it was to switch at 7 months - not that hard, it turns out, for the times we were going. I do think it's a different analysis, though, if you're buying your first home resort and you definitely prefer BWV or BCV far over everything else.

I just priced out two weekends coming up at Riviera and VGF (in standard studios, which are impossible unless you own)
Based on the dates we bought in, both of those weekends come out to around $325/nt (this includes cost of dues). Cash rate at Riviera is $900/nt and it's unavailable in any VGF DVC room at any price. And the Swan on those dates is around $300-325/night for a no view room.

 

[DanCali]

Problem with Riviera resale is Riviera only. I’ve seen it as low as $115 sold.

That's exactly the problem, and you don't even know where it will eventually settle. It it wasn't for that, I suspect resale prices would be much closer to VGF resale prices.

If I owned Riviera direct, that price may actually cause me to consider it as an add-on - you need the use year and number of points to be a good fit though. But if I'm considering being a resale-only Riviera owner , $115 is still too high for my taste for what it offers as a resale product. I actually love the resort, and location, and skyliner. But, thanks to the resale restrictions, those who bought direct bought a BMW and are forced to sell it as a Pinto - it'll still get you where you want to go, but zero extra functionality or bells and whistles. That's got to be reflected in the price...

Over the weekend, there was a listing for Riviera at $113 (asking).

I saw that too. It's listed as "firm" at $113 - no takers after 4 days.

 

[drjulianof]

That's exactly the problem, and you don't even know where it will eventually settle. It it wasn't for that, I suspect resale prices would be much closer to VGF resale prices.

If I owned Riviera direct, that price may actually cause me to consider it as an add-on - you need the use year and number of points to be a good fit though. But if I'm considering being a resale-only Riviera owner , $115 is still too high for my taste for what it offers as a resale product. I actually love the resort, and location, and skyliner. But, thanks to the resale restrictions, those who bought direct bought a BMW and are forced to sell it as a Pinto - it'll still get you where you want to go, but zero extra functionality or bells and whistles. That's got to be reflected in the price...



I saw that too. It's listed as "firm" at $113 - no takers after 4 days.

Indeed, and many small contracts sitting for 50+ days and even at 120-140 per point contracts have been seeing weeks now. Given it is mostly a single pony show, this certainly should set an example for the future launches in the WDW resorts if they choose to follow with the same toxic restrictions.

 

[cbailey1616]

Over the weekend, there was a listing for Riviera at $113 (asking).

Disney plan
1) Make strict resale limitations which nuke resale value
3) Acquire those cheap resale contracts through ROFR for cheap
4) Re-sell direct for 100% profit.

 

[CastAStone]

Disney plan
1) Make strict resale limitations which nuke resale value
3) Acquire those cheap resale contracts through ROFR for cheap
4) Re-sell direct for 100% profit.

Have to admit it’s a good plan if they can pull it off.

 

[Sandisw]

Disney plan
1) Make strict resale limitations which nuke resale value
3) Acquire those cheap resale contracts through ROFR for cheap
4) Re-sell direct for 100% profit.

The only thing about this is that as long as they are selling new resorts the market for the older ones is really small.

I don’t see it as enough of a viable plan to do it because they still need to capital to buy them in the first place.

 

[Cfabar1]

Over the weekend, there was a listing for Riviera at $113 (asking).

If you love riviera riviera resale is one of the best bargains out there. Around $2.50 per point per year. And you’ll have it forever if you’re a millennial or older.

Well worth the downside of only staying there assuming you can book at 11 months.

I think Riviera resale will trend down. I’d only buy Riviera if you are certain you love the resort and you want to keep it forever.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Over the weekend, there was a listing for Riviera at $113 (asking).

How many points? Where is this listed if you're allowed to say (filter will let us know that either way I guess)?

 

[cdirazonian]

I think Riviera resale will trend down. I’d only buy Riviera if you are certain you love the resort and you want to keep it forever.

Riviera is a no way @ any price for us but…

if PVB2 has same restrictions, would definitely do resale there but then the prices probably won’t get as low as they are for Riviera.

PVB2 resale would probably still be high because of the location to MK and attachment to an original resort - nostalgia & all

 

[cdirazonian]

How many points? Where is this listed if you're allowed to say (filter will let us know that either way I guess)?

175 pts

https://resales.*******.com/listings/riviera-resort-riv125lbf1/

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

175 pts

https://resales.*******.com/listings/riviera-resort-riv125lbf1/

Thanks! Found it. Same UY as our direct Riviera contract.

 

[Flash_Sloth]

This also depends on when you bought. But, case in point, we're in the process of a BWV purchase ( ). The original owner bought direct in 1999 which, from I can can tell, was at around $65/pt(?). They've used it for 25 years and also made a decent capital gain...

Congrats on your BWV purchase; I'm sure you'll enjoy staying there & all your other home resorts. That's a lot of coffee mugs.

The original owners of that contract hit a winning formula for making a capital gain, though I'm sure they paid more in dues over 25 years than the original purchase price:
1. buy early at a very popular resort that doesn't have resale restrictions
2. hang on to it for a long time & have several wonderful vacations
3. sell it while there is still enough life remaining on the contract

We don't know exactly where the resale prices of the 2042 resorts will be in 5, 10, or 15 years, but I expect the trend to slowly go down.

 

[grahf1234]

I don’t know, $65 in 1999 is about $122 today. Doesn’t seem like it was a crazy bargain back then IMO

 

[DanCali]

I don’t know, $65 in 1999 is about $122 today. Doesn’t seem like it was a crazy bargain back then IMO

I’d rather buy for $122 in today’s dollars and sell at anything above that in 18 years. Instead, I’ll have $0 if I keep it that long.

 

[pangyal]

If you look at prices from 2015, they trend far lower than what we are seeing today. Here is the average pricing for January of 2015 for the active resales at that time:

AK $65-$75

BLT $90-$100

Boardwalk $65-$75

Wilderness Lodge $65-$75

Beach Club Villas $75-$85

GFV $113-$125

Old Key West $60-$65

SSR $65-$75


And, many of us purchased at those prices, which were commensurate with prices from fifteen years prior. There were financial events occurring in the global market in 2015 as well. I’m not making any definitive statements, but just pointing out that looking at how much somebody paid for a resort in 1999 versus 2015 versus 2023 is not necessarily as cut-and-dried as drilling it down to number of years left on the contract.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If you look at prices from 2015, they trend far lower than what we are seeing today. Here is the average pricing for January of 2015 for the active resales at that time:

AK $65-$75

BLT $90-$100

Boardwalk $65-$75

Wilderness Lodge $65-$75

Beach Club Villas $75-$85

GFV $113-$125

Old Key West $60-$65

SSR $65-$75


And, many of us purchased at those prices, which were commensurate with prices from fifteen years prior. There were financial events occurring in the global market in 2015 as well. I’m not making any definitive statements, but just pointing out that looking at how much somebody paid for a resort in 1999 versus 2015 versus 2023 is not necessarily as cut-and-dried as drilling it down to number of years left on the contract.

This is an excellent point.

I’ll just add for anybody like me, feeling major regret that they didn’t buy 7 years ago, it’d probably about 1.4x that in today’s dollars.

 

[jason423]

I ran a few more things on this just because its an interesting topic. I went back and looked at the data of average resale prices at dvcresalemarket.com for September of each year going back to 2018 (CCV going back to 2019). With the exception of OKW, which is down 12%, the 2042 WDW resorts are pretty much in line with the changes at the other resorts. They are a bit lower but nothing that would indicate that the 2042 expiration is rapidly changing the market. Even looking year by year I would say that we are experiencing more of a correction as the 2042 resorts on average were the only group to grow in 2022 and the changes in 2023 are more or less putting them back on course with everyone else.

The OKW drop is notable and I wonder if 2042 being the expiration for a resort that is often bought for SAP has shifted more buyers to SSR and AKW which are the two resorts showing the most growth since 2018.

 

[CastAStone]

I ran a few more things on this just because its an interesting topic. I went back and looked at the data of average resale prices at dvcresalemarket.com for September of each year going back to 2018 (CCV going back to 2019). With the exception of OKW, which is down 12%, the 2042 WDW resorts are pretty much in line with the changes at the other resorts. They are a bit lower but nothing that would indicate that the 2042 expiration is rapidly changing the market. Even looking year by year I would say that we are experiencing more of a correction as the 2042 resorts on average were the only group to grow in 2022 and the changes in 2023 are more or less putting them back on course with everyone else.

The OKW drop is notable and I wonder if 2042 being the expiration for a resort that is often bought for SAP has shifted more buyers to SSR and AKW which are the two resorts showing the most growth since 2018.

One thing to remember about OKW is that every year a slightly higher percentage of the resale contracts should be 2057s. As it’s all Disney has sold for the past 15 years or whatever it’s been. The existence of the 2057 OKWs make the 2042 OKWs less valuable.

 

[rdevans_2000]

Wonder what the current BWV refurb will do to resale prices mid to late next year? I am guessing a 10% to 15% bump, all other things (like the economy, interest rates, etc) being equal. We own a 250 point contract there and will likely sell it. Hate to give it up as we LOVE walking into EPCOT and DHS, but my financial brain kicks in and begins to think of the contract more like an asset than an entertainment expense. If we can get 75% of our initial cost back before the value gets hit hard (maybe between years 10-15), then we will. We already purchased at AKV and CCV because we like the theming at those resorts better than any, and they have lots of remaining years. So we lose the location benefit of BWV but gain the benefits of better theming (IMHO) and time. Trade offs!

It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next ten years with 2042 resort prices. It will be even more interesting to see what direction Disney goes with expiring resorts. That is anybody's guess. I doubt even Disney knows.