ROFR Thread July to Sept 2020 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[sethschroeder]

Good point. Reading the blog, though, it appears as if prices are not heading downward. Good deals are obviously still there, though.

Eh they want more money and to position urgency. If they said wait 6 months to buy that does them zero good. They are just positioning the facts in the correct order.

Couple contracts I have watched for BLT that were reduced twice on that site until they were less than the lowest average price over the past 12 months.

Other sites where you can easily get lower prices.

Finally quite a few low point contracts 35% of contracts sold were 100 points or less and of that 20% were 75 points or less. Those contracts boost that average sale price. I can only guess that it seems like more small point contracts have been available lately.

In the end my next 150 points likely will be direct but still been looking to see how quickly prices go down.

 

[CastAStone]

Worst fears confirmed....disney took my contract:

Jbreen2010---$94-$23984-225-SSR-Jun-0/19, 225/20, 225/21, 225/22- sent 7/1, taken by Disney 8/7

Back to the drawing board

Disney hasn't taken contracts since 3/30 and now they took mine. I guess I should go play the lotto!

I would just go right after that same price point again, they can’t take all of the contracts.

 

[77NWD]

77NWD---$86-$17880-200-SSR-Dec-0/18, 0/19, 7/20, 200/21- sent 8/4

Don’t fancy my chances too much right now after tonights news.......

 

[CastAStone]

Eh they want more money and to position urgency. If they said wait 6 months to buy that does them zero good. They are just positioning the facts in the correct order.

Couple contracts I have watched for BLT that were reduced twice on that site until they were less than the lowest average price over the past 12 months.

Other sites where you can easily get lower prices.

Finally quite a few low point contracts 35% of contracts sold were 100 points or less and of that 20% were 75 points or less. Those contracts boost that average sale price. I can only guess that it seems like more small point contracts have been available lately.

In the end my next 150 points likely will be direct but still been looking to see how quickly prices go down.

Just look at the Saratoga Springs listings on www.DVCresalemarket.com

There’s over 75, and there’s several with 2020 and even banked 2019 points listed for prices under the ROFR prices we’ve seen today. They are all going to sell for asking or less. Disney may take several of them, but they will not take them all.

 

[CastAStone]

77NWD---$86-$17880-200-SSR-Dec-0/18, 0/19, 7/20, 200/21- sent 8/4

Don’t fancy my chances too much right now after tonight’s news.......

It will be a good test of @sethschroeder theory that they won’t take stripped contracts in the near future. Your contract isn’t getting more points for over 15 months.

 

[EM Lawrence]

77NWD---$86-$17880-200-SSR-Dec-0/18, 0/19, 7/20, 200/21- sent 8/4

Don’t fancy my chances too much right now after tonights news.......

Hopefully they are only interested in contracts with the 2020 points intact to resell to a direct buyer! I’d love to see the details of all the contracts that got taken.

 

[EM Lawrence]

It will be a good test of @sethschroeder theory that they won’t take stripped contracts in the near future. Your contract isn’t getting more points for over 15 months.

Looks like we cross posted the same idea @CastAStone! Credit to @sethschroeder for coming up with the theory.

 

[PaulW08]

77NWD---$86-$17880-200-SSR-Dec-0/18, 0/19, 7/20, 200/21- sent 8/4

Don’t fancy my chances too much right now after tonights news.......

Fingers crossed for you. That’s an amazing deal.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Eh they want more money and to position urgency. If they said wait 6 months to buy that does them zero good. They are just positioning the facts in the correct order.

Couple contracts I have watched for BLT that were reduced twice on that site until they were less than the lowest average price over the past 12 months.

Other sites where you can easily get lower prices.

Finally quite a few low point contracts 35% of contracts sold were 100 points or less and of that 20% were 75 points or less. Those contracts boost that average sale price. I can only guess that it seems like more small point contracts have been available lately.

In the end my next 150 points likely will be direct but still been looking to see how quickly prices go down.

Looking at a number of resale sites, it looks like inventory is diminishing. Supply goes down, price goes up.

 

[davidl81]

Worst fears confirmed....disney took my contract:

Jbreen2010---$94-$23984-225-SSR-Jun-0/19, 225/20, 225/21, 225/22- sent 7/1, taken by Disney 8/7

Back to the drawing board

Disney hasn't taken contracts since 3/30 and now they took mine. I guess I should go play the lotto!

Yeah I have a $99 SSR DEC 175 Deal pending right now, but 122 of 19 points are banked into 20, so it is 297 in 20, and 175 every year after. May be a little higher than some of the others, but I don't think a few dollars makes a a difference to Disney.

I spoke with my guide today (he was following up with me on a direct inquiry at RIV I made) and I had also asked about SSR direct. He said that right now that have no SSR points and there is a decent sized waiting list, but he thought they would be able to get points fairly soon. I'm guessing that DVC is seeing that they have a waiting list of a few thousand points or so and they are picking up a few decent sized contracts that they can "flip" quickly.

 

[sethschroeder]

Looking at a number of resale sites, it looks like inventory is diminishing. Supply goes down, price goes up.

Check out the what will resale do thread. Inventory the last month or so has been higher than usual supposedly. So it coming back down is likely expected. I would suspect the crunch time on if the market will go down or not will be in mid October to early December but just guessing based on people starting to think about MFs.

 

[Spinster Travel]

Poly is fine. They don’t buy it back

Really? Good to know, I’ve got a 120 point in ROFR at $140

 

[poofyo101]

Really? Good to know, I’ve got a 120 point in ROFR at $140

I was told 0 buy backs ever on poly. There was owner user here that had it bought back at the very beginning of poly dvc history but since then no reported cases.

 

[striker1064]

They also couldn't pass up GF when they can mark it up nearly $100 a point.

I've thought about this before and I don't think it has much of anything to do with why Disney exercises ROFR. Look at PVB and the way that price has slipped. Direct is $245, resale can be had for $135 or less. That's an even larger spread than the aforementioned VGF and it's another very popular monorail resort, and yet Disney has continued to let those go.

I would imagine there's some hidden aspect of demand we simply don't know about. We do know Disney holds at least 2% of the points inventory at all resorts - maybe they exercise ROFR as they slip under that.

 

[poofyo101]

The more I think about it the more I have a feeling this is just a temporary thing for Disney to SHOW everyone they can still buy things back. The price of which they bought back contracts seems even more aggressive than prior covid buy backs.

 

[CarpeDream71]

It's either a shot across the bow to keep people and brokers asking higher prices or, and I think this is the likely thing, people are taking advantage of direct incentives and they bought back points to satisfy that demand.

I agree. Resale is taking so ridiculously long that people will consider buying direct to avoid the hassle and to be able to use their points.

 

[jbreen2010]

Just look at the Saratoga Springs listings on www.DVCresalemarket.com

There’s over 75, and there’s several with 2020 and even banked 2019 points listed for prices under the ROFR prices we’ve seen today. They are all going to sell for asking or less. Disney may take several of them, but they will not take them all.

Thanks for the encouragement

Yes - agreed - they're not planning on taking all of them back. I just really wish we didn't have to wait 35 days to hear that disney wants them. I am going to be a first time DVC owner and am determined to get a contract

 

[John Purcell]

I've thought about this before and I don't think it has much of anything to do with why Disney exercises ROFR. Look at PVB and the way that price has slipped. Direct is $245, resale can be had for $135 or less. That's an even larger spread than the aforementioned VGF and it's another very popular monorail resort, and yet Disney has continued to let those go.

I would imagine there's some hidden aspect of demand we simply don't know about. We do know Disney holds at least 2% of the points inventory at all resorts - maybe they exercise ROFR as they slip under that.

I have my theory on Poly. I heard the bungalows are a decent percentage of total points (Mostly due to their high point per night) and that they are vacant so often, a trend not likely to improve (unless they increase points for studios and decrease for bungalows). Disney probably doesn’t want to float the expense for a resort on a resort whose used/unused ratio is lower... but again, just a theory... also they have a rule not to upgrade to a bungalow from a studio just to fill space / use more points....

VGF doesn’t seem to have that problem to my knowledge, but it’s a small resort (probably hush hush if their grand villas are as vacant). But take a look at this:

 

[WestCoastDVC]

I realize Disney hasn‘t exercised ROFR for Aulani contracts, but does anyone know why they don’t for subsidized dues ones? Would they not be allowed to convert them to standard dues or is it just because the resort is not sold out?

Not just asking because I have one in ROFR

 

[LadybugsMum]

I realize Disney hasn‘t exercised ROFR for Aulani contracts, but does anyone know why they don’t for subsidized dues ones? Would they not be allowed to convert them to standard dues or is it just because the resort is not sold out?

Not just asking because I have one in ROFR

It opened in 2011 and it’s not sold out yet. I can’t imagine that they’d want to take a contract back because it’s been on sale for 10 years.