ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[thelionqueen]

My opinion is that over the next 10 years a LOT of the original owners will die or become infirm and there will be a ton of contracts available all the time.

Interesting speculation

 

[pangyal]

Updated !

I am off to Disney and a cruise on the Wish...very much-needed, I might add...but I will update as often as I can. It should stay quiet for a while longer so I will take advantage of that .

My 7/14 BCV contract is here:

 

[Bearval]

I’m not convinced though that with 10 years or less left that the 2042 ones will sell for much..

I guess we have about 8 years to see what starts to happen.

i wouldn't be surprised if the DVC resellers percentage for selling the 2042 resorts goes up to 15% or 20% or a minimum flat fee to make it worth while for them since the prices will be very low.

 

[DanCali]

They’re not directly comparable because the point charts are so much friendlier at BCV and especially BWV.

I still think all the 2042s are priced resonably vis-a-vis all the other resorts, except Beach Club. You can pay back a $110 BWV contract in 5 years in standard studios no problem.

Pay back in 5 years is probably getting into the area of "fuzzy math". I assume you mean when compared to cash rates?

One could also say that if you pay $110 for BWV then that's about $6/pt/year or $14.50 after annual dues. If you can rent BWV points for $20 on Disboards then owning only saves you $5.50/pt/year. So, at current rates, it will take 20 years to break even on the $110 you paid upfront, i.e., not before 2042.

 

[thelionqueen]

i wouldn't be surprised if the DVC resellers percentage for selling the 2042 resorts goes up to 15% or 20% or a minimum flat fee to make it worth while for them since the prices will be very low.

I think the inventory will significant decrease which will keep the values decent. Many owners would use those points to the very end, especially when the value of owning increases with time. Most will only be paying dues with reasonable point charts at very desirable locations that can’t be duplicated (BCV & BWV) while Disney resort prices continue to rise. No way I’d sell my contract at fire sale prices when I’ve got years of use and value left.

I’m getting the same room for pennies for the next 19 years at one of the hardest resorts to book. That’s where the value is. I don’t think the vast majority of folks will be trying to dump points because the contract end is looming. Who cares? It’s about prepaying your vacations and staying deluxe for less. No matter what year it is, or what resale value it is (or isn’t) I’m staying at my favorite resort until 2042. No one who isn’t an owner at BCV, can book there for any length of time without a brilliant stroke of luck and that’s just the truth. Note, I’m not suggesting it’s impossible or you can’t get a few nights here or there, I’m saying getting the room and duration you want there at 7 months is unlikely

I understand having less resale value due to contract length but I think some may be overlooking the idea that sellers would keep rather than sell in many cases. In my own example, I’m keeping BCV til they pry it out of my 2042 death grip
Just my .02

 

[Bearval]

I think the inventory will significant decrease which will keep the values decent. Many owners would use those points to the very end, especially when the value of owning increases with time. Most will only be paying dues with reasonable point charts at very desirable locations that can’t be duplicated (BCV & BWV) while Disney resort prices continue to rise. No way I’d sell my contract at fire sale prices when I’ve got years of use and value left.

I understand having less resale value due to contract length but I think some may be overlooking the idea that sellers would keep rather than sell in many cases. In my own example, I’m keeping BCV til they pry it out of my 2042 death grip
Just my .02

That could be well before 2042 especially if you are fond of bacon rolls.

 

[thelionqueen]

That could be well before 2042 especially if you are fond of bacon rolls.

No clue what that means

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Pay back in 5 years is probably getting into the area of "fuzzy math". I assume you mean when compared to cash rates?

One could also say that if you pay $110 for BWV then that's about $6/pt/year or $14.50 after annual dues. If you can rent BWV points for $20 on Disboards then owning only saves you $5.50/pt/year. So, at current rates, it will take 20 years to break even on the $110 you paid upfront, i.e., not before 2042.

Compared to 35% discount on cash rates. Standard rooms at BWV are obscenely underpriced on points. You are often getting $50-$70 per point in value.

I agree that buying them to rent them out would be much stupider.

 

[E2ME2]

Updated !

I am off to Disney and a cruise on the Wish...very much-needed, I might add...but I will update as often as I can. It should stay quiet for a while longer so I will take advantage of that .

My 7/14 BCV contract is here:

View attachment 785102

Have a FANTASTIC Cruise.!
Maybe your BCV contract will emerge through a gateway in that Black Hole while you’re enjoying some well-deserved R&R.

 

[E2ME2]

I think the inventory will significant decrease which will keep the values decent. Many owners would use those points to the very end, especially when the value of owning increases with time. Most will only be paying dues with reasonable point charts at very desirable locations that can’t be duplicated (BCV & BWV) while Disney resort prices continue to rise. No way I’d sell my contract at fire sale prices when I’ve got years of use and value left.

I’m getting the same room for pennies for the next 19 years at one of the hardest resorts to book. That’s where the value is. I don’t think the vast majority of folks will be trying to dump points because the contract end is looming. Who cares? It’s about prepaying your vacations and staying deluxe for less. No matter what year it is, or what resale value it is (or isn’t) I’m staying at my favorite resort until 2042. No one who isn’t an owner at BCV, can book there for any length of time without a brilliant stroke of luck and that’s just the truth. Note, I’m not suggesting it’s impossible or you can’t get a few nights here or there, I’m saying getting the room and duration you want there at 7 months is unlikely

I understand having less resale value due to contract length but I think some may be overlooking the idea that sellers would keep rather than sell in many cases. In my own example, I’m keeping BCV til they pry it out of my 2042 death grip
Just my .02

You are singing my song. The COVID dip pushed me to bid on my BCV contract, and the current sleeping ROFR Monster inspired me to jump on a loaded BWV Contract. Being a DVC owner gor 12 years, we quickly learned we wanted/needed 11-Mo. advantage to spend more of our time at Crescent Lake.
I hope to still be using all of my points in 2042!!
If not, I could probably sell off my SSR & AKV points at that time, to recoup some of my costs.

 

[thelionqueen]

You are songing my song. The COVID dip pushed me to bid on my BCV contract, and the current sleeping ROFR Monster inspired me to jump on a loaded BWV Contract. Being a DVC owner gor 12 years, we quickly learned we wanted/needed 11-Mo. advantage to spend more of our time at Crescent Lake.
I hope to still be using all of my points in 2042!!
If not, I could probably sell off my SSR & AKV points at that time, to recoup some if my costs.

I think that’s a wise choice! I bought VB for SAPs but my BCV points are my diamond! I love BWV too, but BC just slightly more. Smart move owning both!

 

[Bearval]

I think that’s a wise choice! I bought VB for SAPs but my BCV points are my diamond! I love BWV too, but BC just slightly more. Smart move owning both!

VB would have been my last choice to purchase for SAPs. The maintenance fees are going to crush you and wipe out any savings you made by the initial low point costs.

 

[thelionqueen]

VB would have been my last choice to purchase for SAPs. The maintenance fees are going to crush you and wipe out any savings you made by the initial low point costs.

I saved over $17,000 on my purchase with average due difference of about $500 a year. Very simple math is that I’ll spend maybe $11k or more than at other resorts, I’m already $6000 ahead to start.

The contract ends in 2042 so the amount of time I’m paying higher dues is shorter than other resorts, making the difference in dues less of an issue for me. If I were paying $500 more per year for 50 years, then yes, it would negate initial savings.

Additionally, I rent out around half of those annually for $2200 per year. Basically I will have the purchase price paid in 1.5 years (if I’m aggressive). After that, I’ll still rent with an annual profit of $700 (including factoring in higher dues) AND 10 studio nights per year for myself without paying a penny for the purchase price. If VB isn’t your choice, awesome..you do you! As for me, I’m good

 

[MsChristy12]

I think the inventory will significant decrease which will keep the values decent. Many owners would use those points to the very end, especially when the value of owning increases with time. Most will only be paying dues with reasonable point charts at very desirable locations that can’t be duplicated (BCV & BWV) while Disney resort prices continue to rise. No way I’d sell my contract at fire sale prices when I’ve got years of use and value left.

I’m getting the same room for pennies for the next 19 years at one of the hardest resorts to book. That’s where the value is. I don’t think the vast majority of folks will be trying to dump points because the contract end is looming. Who cares? It’s about prepaying your vacations and staying deluxe for less. No matter what year it is, or what resale value it is (or isn’t) I’m staying at my favorite resort until 2042. No one who isn’t an owner at BCV, can book there for any length of time without a brilliant stroke of luck and that’s just the truth. Note, I’m not suggesting it’s impossible or you can’t get a few nights here or there, I’m saying getting the room and duration you want there at 7 months is unlikely

I understand having less resale value due to contract length but I think some may be overlooking the idea that sellers would keep rather than sell in many cases. In my own example, I’m keeping BCV til they pry it out of my 2042 death grip
Just my .02

THIS! That's us too. We own BRV, if we are healthy and able to use them until 2042, noway we will sell ours!

 

[tom1944]

I saved over $17,000 on my purchase with average due difference of about $500 a year. Very simple math is that I’ll spend maybe $11k or more than at other resorts, I’m already $6000 ahead to start.

The contract ends in 2042 so the amount of time I’m paying higher dues is shorter than other resorts, making the difference in dues less of an issue for me. If I were paying $500 more per year for 50 years, then yes, it would negate initial savings.

Additionally, I rent out around half of those annually for $2200 per year. Basically I will have the purchase price paid in 1.5 years (if I’m aggressive). After that, I’ll still rent with an annual profit of $700 (including factoring in higher dues) AND 10 studio nights per year for myself without paying a penny for the purchase price. If VB isn’t your choice, awesome..you do you! As for me, I’m good

This is what everyone should do

Not the actual purchase but the consideration and plan on how you will maximize the benefit of the purchase. Every person will have a different analysis and reason

 

[DarthDadMan]

DarthDadMan---$130-$25074-175-CCV@WL-Apr-0/22, 175/23, 175/24, 175/25- sent 7/21

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in

DarthDadMan---$130-$25074-175-CCV@WL-Apr-0/22, 175/23, 175/24, 175/25- sent 7/21, passed 8/14

 

[MsChristy12]

DarthDadMan---$130-$25074-175-CCV@WL-Apr-0/22, 175/23, 175/24, 175/25- sent 7/21, passed 8/14

Pretty good price on that one! And it's one of the harder UY to find! Congrats!

 

[Mrs.LauraSmith]

Yes we have to wait till Monday too for closing

we passed the exact same contract on the exact same time But paid 5 USD per Point more

I think we may have been bidding against each other on your contract Did you make a full price offer at $110? I lost out on that one and it gave me an idea where the market was at, so I bid $105 on a $125 contract and got it without any back and forth!

 

[DarthDadMan]

Pretty good price on that one! And it's one of the harder UY to find! Congrats!

Thank you! Many memories for many years are going to be made with these points!

 

[Jenglish13]

I was considering buying 100-150 points at BCV. After crunching numbers I think it makes more sense to just rent when I want to go. Buying direct for $275pp is obviously bonkers. Resale around $120pp seems like a decent proposition, but after running some numbers I'm leaning towards just renting points. Aside from the upfront outlay for the purchase and the ever increasing dues there's an opportunity cost to consider what that money could otherwise be yielding for you. I made a model with some assumptions like dues would continue to increase at around 4% per year and that you can conservatively expect a yield of 7.5% on money you invest instead of spending on DVC. The one thing I didn't account for is potential increase of cost for renting points. I kept that stable at $20 pp. If that cost were to rise significantly that would throw off the model a bit. I'm fairly new to DVC, have rental rates risen predictably over time like dues?

I'll post the numbers below but some takeaways for me were that a few dollars difference on resale is pretty negligible to your overall cost, esp with a 2042 resort like BCV. For example, the overall cost between $120pp and $160pp on 150 point contract amounts to $6k over 20 years (or $300 per year). Not necessarily insignificant, but if you see something you really like with the right use year it may not be worth quibbling over $5-8 pp. Buying direct without strong incentives or deep discounts is simply not rational. Buying 150 points at BCV direct would cost about $78,000 over time. Buying resale at $120pp would cost about $54,500. Renting at $20pp would be $3k each year or $60k for the 20 years, again assuming rental rates remained stable which is probably not the case.

The $41,250 it would cost to buy direct would otherwise become over $175k in 20 years with compunded growth at 7.5% return per year. The $18,000 it would cost to buy resale at $120pp would be worth over $76k by 2042. If you invested the $41,250 and rented 150 points at $20pp each year, you would have over $117k. If you invested the $18,000 and rented, you would have $18,500 in 2042. You'd make $500 in twenty years with 150 points to use each year!

Other things to consider are convenience and commitment factors. It's obviously more convenient to own a contract and bank and borrow and cancel reservations without penalty, but renting points saves you from committing to paying those dues every year and having to use or rent the points and it also gives you a potential 11 month window at any resort you want. Anyway, it was kind of a fun exercise for me and I'm curious what you all think. Am I missing something here aside form the likelihood that rental rates will increase from $20pp over time?