Thank you!
Yeah, my initial thought was that that reservations-per-hour number was very low too. I'm pretty confident in the source. They determined that by looking at how many G+ reservations had to be made in any given 5-minute period, for the return-time window to shift ahead by 5 minutes. That number appears to be 24. So 24 * 12 (the number of 5-minute periods in an hour) = 288. Let's say 300/hour because round numbers are easier to work with.
But I could be wrong, so if anyone has a better way of figuring out G+ allocation per attraction, I'd love to hear it.
For now, it might be helpful to invert the way we're asking the question: What if DAS usage is limiting the number of Genie+ reservations Disney can sell?
Here are some starting assumptions:
- Disney wants to keep the same ratio of standby guests to Lightning Lane as it did with FP+
- That means admitting to a ride 3 or 4 LL guests for every 1 standby guest
- Disney has a decent idea of how much DAS use happens in the Lightning Lanes
- The 2020 DAS lawsuit is helpful here:
- Disney says 3% of guests in the park used the old Guest Assistance Card
- For at least one attraction, those 3% of guests (and their families) used 30% of ride capacity
- When Genie+ costs $37 per person per day and ILLs are $20 pppd, a family of four is going to be more likely to seek out a DAS accommodation than pay $250 for Genie+ and ILL.
So if Disney *knows* that Haunted Mansion will have 1,200 DAS users per hour, that ratio limits the number of Genie+ reservations it can sell, because otherwise the ratio would have to change.
Like I said - I could be wrong on all of this. Discussions like this are great for figuring things out.