Sadly, the chances of our Italy trip happening this Sept/Oct are pretty dismal. It's time to face that reality. While I won't cancel anything until September 1st, it's time to set our hopes on NEXT September by tacking on extra time, perhaps up to 2 weeks, to the cruise already booked. That's 14 months away and if things aren't back to more normal than they are now, well... we'll have a lot more to worry about than what shore excursions we need to choose for our ports.
Here is the reply that was given to me by my friend Magdalene on my other thread that will shed some light on the situation. She is German, so yes, more of an authority on this than most of us:
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I really hope your trip can happen. I can give you some more info about the thinking behind the travel restrictions, which might help you in assessing the likelihood of your trip.
While every country in Europe sets their own entry restrictions during the pandemic, there is also the Schengen cooperation. Normally all travel is free between the Schengen countries. But there is a clause for restrictions for emergencies. And that clause was used heavily starting in March. Each country went their own way and it was very confusing. Some restricting all travels, others restricting certain countries etc. Then at some point the European countries got together and at least agreed on how to deal with travel from outside the EU. That was quite a bit later than when travel from EU to the US was banned.
Then, when lock downs were started to be lifted, it was obvious that travel within the Schengen area and the rest of EU needed to become possible as well. Within Schengen, we are just not set up for constant border controls. No country has the man power nor the infrastructure for it. And it is also against the idea of Europe and created far too many difficulties because of the integration of the economies. However, there was a need for some kind of mechanism as to what should be allowed and what not.
A couple of weeks earlier Germany had decided to start easing out of the lock down (which was mild compared to other European countries like Italy and France) and had found a rule as to when new lock down measures needed to be implemented. The reasoning behind that is that a lock down is necessary if there is too much community spread for efficient contact tracing and quarantine. So, it's a manpower limitation in the local health authorities. Once you cannot efficiently trace the contacts of every infected person anymore, you will have uncontrolled spread of the disease. The idea here in Germany was that our health authorities are (now, we got extra) staffed to be able to trace 50 new infections per week per 100,000 inhabitants. And the rule here is that if any county goes over that number they need to take special measures. We recently had a massive outbreak at a meat factory (they found 700 people infected in the factory) which actually resulted in a two week lockdown of that county.
So, somehow that 50 infections per 100,000 inhabitants over the last 7 days has made its way into the European agreements. Maybe because Germany as a federal state had come to this through negotiation between its states and therefore had already done a lot of debate on it at a point where other countries were just thinking about easing the lock down. The number was first installed for allowing travel between the EU countries. Sweden was (and maybe still is) above that threshold and therefore most EU countries still have a ban against travel from Sweden.
The next step was trying to coordinate how to ease travel from abroad into the EU. Again, the 50 per week per 100,000 number was vital. I think by then it had morphed into an indicator of how prevalent the number of infected are in a country and with that how likely it is that a traveler will start a new chain of infections. But, it is actually combined with a second test, which can be called: Do we believe those numbers. There are countries who are just not able to test enough people and then there are those countries who are known to lie about everything. North Korea supposedly doesn't have a single infection... The list of countries who are allowed and prohibited will be monitored on a constant basis (I think they will change their recommendations every two weeks).
Which leads to the next step: When will the US move to the list of permitted countries. I am certain that the US is considered a trustworthy countries when it comes to its statistics, so it will only be the 50 per week per 100,000. So, it is easy math: 328,200,000 inhabitants, so that would be 164,100 cases a week, or an average of about 23,450 cases a day. Obviously the US is far from that number at the moment and unless it comes down to that I don't think there will be a change in the travel rules.
Ultimately, nearly all EU countries have decided to go for a suppression strategy (meaning getting as little infections as possible until either treatment of vaccine are possible) against the SARS-CoV-2, not just a containment strategy (meaning just trying to not let the hospitals be overwhelmed). The reason for that is that there is a consensus that the toll for herd immunity is far too large to pay. With 447 million inhabitants in the EU even a death rate of 0.5% (which scientists seem to think is likely in a scenario where every sick person gets the best treatment available now) and heard immunity after 50% of the population is immune would mean that nearly one million people could die from this. And that's kind of a best case scenario. Most of the deaths would be of the generation who rebuilt Europe after the devastation of WW II.
The lockdown was used to get back to the point where suppression is possible. Therefore there is a very strong motivation to not damage that. In comparison to other countries (like New Zealand) it is far more difficult to do this here in Europe with it being a large continent with so many borders and so much interconnectivity in itself on so many levels (not just economic, but also with regard to education, personal life etc.). So, the dangers of new infection chains coming in from outside of Europe will be continued to be taken very seriously.
Sorry that this got so long, but I thought the better you understand the why of the restrictions, the better you can figure out what it means for your travel plans. To be honest, my advice would be: spring is beautiful in Italy... "
I had tossed around the idea of planning a trip to Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam THIS year, but I just don't want to risk it anymore. To plan an overseas vacation is a lot of work. A. LOT. And I've had to plan logistics a few times already for this one, only to be foiled by Covid. And while I'd have loved back-to-back Euro Vacations, it's just not looking like that's in the cards.
So, new plan, should it come to that, and it's looking like it probably will:
Mikki, Karilynn, and Mikki's friend Hannah (introductions in next chapter) and I will fly out a few days before embarkation and do a bit of Rome then enjoy our cruise of the Greek Isles and 2 Turkish ports. After we get back to Rome, Anara will fly over, and Kari and I will continue on with up to more weeks of vacation in and around Italy with her just as before, taking in all the sights as we'd planned. Mikki and Hannah won't have the extra time to join us for that portion, so they'll have to fly back once the cruise is over. And that's okay; good to mix up the group halfway through.
What does this mean for you? You get a (more) drama-filled PTR/TR with twists and turns each and every post! And I can drag this bad boy out for what will seem like forever for all of you. Muhahaha! On the positive side of things, it also means I can take time with it and drag you through another round of school with me as I tackle my BSN (Bachelors of Science in Nursing). There are a few of you left who "went through" Nursing School with me too and I'll forever be grateful for your encouragement in that.
So moving forward... Come September 1st when we know for certain, I will start to make cancellations and re-book air tickets, etc... Until then, I'm not sure there will be a lot to share. I get to start my first class on the 15th- in one week!!- and am stoked to get this thing done.
Sorry, this took a turn for the "less-active" but one day, travel will happen again, and I'll be here sharing the BFP (big fat plan) as I know it.