MARCH MADNESS 2018!
Time for my annual attempt at winning something in all of the free online bracket games! Simple method for me:
-Use 538's power predictor rankings which are in aggregate score of several sources: ELO, BPI, Sagarin Predictor, Ken Pom, Sokol's LRMC ratings, Moore's computer rankings, selection committee's S-curve, and preseason rankings.
-Input data into an excel file.
-Take the difference between two teams PPR to determine the point spread of a basketball game.
-Using a standard deviation of 9.5 points, calculate a normal distribution of possible outcomes.
-This outputs the % chance that one team would beat another given their PPR.
-Run a simulation (one click on excel) that randomizes the outcomes of all the games based on the % chance one team would beat another.
-Input the data into an online bracket game: ESPN, CBS, Fox, Yahoo, Athlon, Bleacher Report, Jiffy, and
Madison.com
-See if I can win anything. You want your best chance of randomly winning something (go with Yahoo and Jiffy).
The system is completely without input from me, but is solely based on the statistical probability of different outcomes. HOWEVER, I can screw up the system by picking and choosing the brackets. Last year, South Carolina ended up in my Final Four model and I kept skipping over those simulated brackets because I didn't think it was possible. Thus, I was influencing... So this year, it will simply be click and input. Whatever each bracket says I'll enter. No picking and choosing.
I ended up with 83 free brackets last year, so let's see if we can win anything this year!