Summer/Fall 2020 Training Plan in Review and Plans for the 2021 Milwaukee Marathon
Well after 3 weeks of no running and 1 week of minimal running, I think it's time to call an end to the Summer/Fall 2020 training plan. But I think it's important to look back at the purpose of the training plan and see if I can learn anything for moving forward. Here was a recap of the original intent of the plan:
What's next? Summer/Fall 2020 Training Plan
The goal was to perform a proof of concept plan. See if I could manipulate the data in such a manner that I could minimize the amount of training compared to Disney 2020 and yet reach a high level of fitness. The review of data suggested that if I followed these key points I may be able to do it:
A) Keep the running form value above 0 for the "easy" and "cycling" phases of the training.
B) Keep the running form value below 0 once the "run" phase of the training begins.
C) Keep the sub-0 run phase to 11-13 weeks maximally.
D) Make sure that the transition from "cycling" phase to "run" phase is not too harsh/sudden potentially causing an injury. So the first 10 weeks range from 15-27 miles (whereas the Spring 2020 training was mostly in the 30-35 range), and then the last 11 weeks is in the 27-47 mile range. Only in essence an increase of about 11-12 miles from where the Spring 2020 training was. The one place I'm most willing to cut mileage from if necessary is the long run days.
and something that was stated elsewhere in the plan overview:
Lastly, in a different review in the data set we saw that in order for me to reach these higher Garmin VO2max values, my run training volume had to be in the 7.5-9hr range. I don't think I can manage that type of run volume, so I'll continue to use cycling and strength training as a supplement. Based on previous number crunching, good cycling is worth about 1/2 the run time. So if I max out around 6.5 hr running, then I'd need something like 5-6 hrs of cycling as a supplement. That would give me something like 9-9.5 hrs running equivalent.
So let's go back and see whether I was successful on these points.
A) Keep the running form value above 0 for the "easy" and "cycling" phases of the training. - NOT SUCCESSFUL
So the plan was originally written such that the time trial would occur on 11/8/20. I wanted the cycle-phase of training to be from 6/15/20 to 8/2/20. After 8/2, the run focused cycle would begin. It would last 13 weeks with the 14th week being race week. But on July 18th I had to pull the plug on training because the upper hamstring injury that had been plaguing me since May was still causing problems. So that pushed the training plan a bit in order to maintain the 13ish weeks of sub-0 training prior to the race. The new race date would be 11/22/20 instead. So the new beginning of the run cycle was to be 8/31/20. The problem is the training load didn't drop low enough to allow this extension. So my sub-0 days started on 8/9 (as was originally planned) instead of 8/31. So the 13 week clock started ticking sooner and I didn't adjust.
B) Keep the running form value below 0 once the "run" phase of the training begins. - SUCCESSFUL
Starting 8/9 through 11/4 (date of ankle injury) the training load form was kept sub-0. So a total of 88 days or 12.5 weeks. While I don't know exactly what caused the ankle issue, it could very well have been overtraining. And I had previously set a limit of 11-13 weeks of sub-0 training based on the previous data. So I was on the upper end of that window with another 2.5 weeks to go before the 11/22 time trial. So this may have been an inevitability on the horizon even if it hadn't occurred on 11/4. But the plan from a standpoint of keeping the training sub-0 did work, it just may have been too long.
C) Keep the sub-0 run phase to 11-13 weeks maximally. - Questionable
If the race had occurred on 11/22, then the sub-0 phase would have run for 14-15 weeks. Technically, since the injury occurred on 11/4, it only ran for 12.5 weeks. But if I had stayed healthy until race day, then I would have exceeded my prior limit. The clock started ticking earlier than intended and I didn't adjust well enough.
D) Make sure that the transition from "cycling" phase to "run" phase is not too harsh/sudden potentially causing an injury. So the first 10 weeks range from 15-27 miles (whereas the Spring 2020 training was mostly in the 30-35 range), and then the last 11 weeks is in the 27-47 mile range. Only in essence an increase of about 11-12 miles from where the Spring 2020 training was. The one place I'm most willing to cut mileage from if necessary is the long run days. - SUCCESSFUL
The transition between the cycle phase and run phase was smooth and without issue. I do wonder though whether moving from 4 days per week of running to 5 days per week of running was another factor in the ankle injury. Since Disney 2020 worked fine at 4 days per week, albeit at a higher cycling training load, it might be worth trying to see if I can manage 4 days per week running with a cycling load similar to the Summer/Fall 2020 plan, and still hit those same fitness levels.
Lastly, in a different review in the data set we saw that in order for me to reach these higher Garmin VO2max values, my run training volume had to be in the 7.5-9hr range. I don't think I can manage that type of run volume, so I'll continue to use cycling and strength training as a supplement. Based on previous number crunching, good cycling is worth about 1/2 the run time. So if I max out around 6.5 hr running, then I'd need something like 5-6 hrs of cycling as a supplement. That would give me something like 9-9.5 hrs running equivalent. - SUCCESSFUL
The previous data had suggested that for me to hit my highest running fitness levels, I would need 7.5-9 hrs of running volume. So, I did hit those peak fitness levels (more on that to come) and did so the week of 10/18/20. My peak training weeks from 10/5 and 10/19 which bracket that week were:
10/5 = 5:21 run + 5:15 cycle (/ 2 is 2:37) = 7:48 hrs
10/19 = 5:49 run + 5:15 cycle (/ 2 is 2:37) = 8:26 hrs
So a good personal confirmation that getting into that high level of personal fitness occurs when I can maintain an equal run volume of 7.5-9 hrs.
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So the question is, what did I learn from this training plan? What are the good things to carry forward, and what are the things I may want to try and avoid?
I want to avoid allowing my run training load form to dip below 0 too soon. That ticking clock on my ability to stay healthy may be a very real thing. With a limit of 11-13 weeks. In this particular plan, I made it 12.5 weeks. So I want to try and be below that. Maybe something around 10-11 weeks instead. So that means not ramping up for the next goal race too soon. I do better with a shorter ramp up.
I probably also want to try and maintain only 4 days per week of running instead of 5 days. It's certainly not definitive, but could have been an issue this time around. As long as I can get the run volume equivalent over that 7.5 hr mark, then I believe I'll put myself in a high level of fitness position. Maybe not absolute peak, but close enough to stay healthy.
But from a standpoint of the quality of the last training plan, it stayed relatively high throughout. I had one bad cycling workout on 10/14 (an early morning suprathreshold), the 10/11 long run workout where I was just slightly slower on the fast finish portion, and the 11/4 run workout where I couldn't maintain HM Tempo effort. With 203 total activities occurring between 6/15 and 11/4, having only 3 (or 1.5%) "bad" workouts is pretty good. So I think I want to follow a similar pattern of types of cycling/run workouts. With VO2max cycling, thresholds, bricks of HM Tempo and maybe some longer M Tempos.
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Now as for the fitness side of it. The fitness undoubtedly increased over the course of the training plan. My Garmin VO2max went from a 49 to 59 over the course of the training plan.
Additionally, where the fitness ended up was at a personally very high level and near peak.
In the last 168 weeks, I've only been at or above 59 a total of 7 times (4.2%). So I was in rarefied air and exactly where I would have hoped to be.
Now I did wonder whether the increase in fitness was simply a function of decreasing temperatures. So I tried to tease the variables apart from each other using T+D corrected pacing. I've shown in the past that my responses to T+D correlate well with the calculations I use to adjust pacing based on T+D based on HR measure. So I decided to try and do a HR vs T+D adjusted pace graph with the data separated into 1/2 month blocks. That way if there was a trend over the course of several weeks, this would capture it. I've done this prior when I showed how well the 2017 Spring Daniels 10k training went.
Daniels 10k in 2017 was easier to graph because the T+D was almost always sub-100 during the entire training phase. But the Summer/Fall 2020 training plan covered a wide variety of temps.
Again, we see a nice fan trend for the line of best fits through the data in 1/2 month blocks. With late June (dark blue line at the top) vs late October (dark green line at the bottom). So for instance, let's take a pace of 8:12 which is right in the middle of this graph. In late June, I would have had a HR of approximately 144 and in late October a HR of 133. The difference between those is a matter of almost Marathon Tempo in June to almost easy pace in October. But let's move a little further faster in pace to really drive it home. Let's use 7:03 pace. In June that was a HR of 152 and in October it was a HR of 144. That's not a ton of separation, but when it comes to race performances it does matter quite a bit. The HR of 152 is a tad higher than my average HM Tempo race HR. Whereas, the HR of 144 is about 4 bpm slower than M Tempo. So we're talking about going from a pace that can be maintained for 13.11 miles in a race, to something that would be akin to the middle of between M Tempo and Long Run pace. I'd call that quite a dramatic difference in HRvsPace abilities. So even in the case of adjusted pacing based on T+D, the plan worked beautifully. My fitness increased significantly on far less training than I did for Disney 2020. I feel this is something that I can easily emulate moving forward with potentially a few additional tweaks with the hope of keeping me healthy.
ETA - Some additional data that really drives home the relationship between my running load "form" value and my changes in Garmin VO2max that I graphically displayed in a later post.
Here's a really good visual for the relationship between my running "form" and my Garmin VO2max value:
From 6/13 through 8/1(ish) the running form value was greater than 0. Around 8/1 it started to drop and you can see the Garmin VO2max value increase. Once the running form passes sub-0 and stays below is when it really starts to climb into the highest values.
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So, what's next? Well I was given a 25% off code for the Milwaukee Marathon because of its 2020 cancellation. They're hopeful they'll be able to run the race in April 2021. I'm not overly confident it will happen. But in addition to the 25% off, they're also offering a 100% refund in the event of cancellation. So I think I'm willing to take them up on that combo offer. With an April 10th race date, that gives me 19 weeks until race day. Plenty of time to allow my ankle to continue to heal, and then increase the training for 10-11 weeks in advance of the race. It also has the additional benefit of potentially avoiding the worst of the WI weather in January and February when it comes to peak training.
So, I've mapped out a training plan based on the following principles:
A) Keep the run training load form to above 0 prior to the run phase. So that would be 11/30/20 through 1/31/21.
B) Once the run phase begins, then keep the run training load form sub-0 for at least 5 of the 7 days per week.
C) Only stay sub-0 in run training load volume for 10-11 weeks maximally. The plan as designed is for 9 weeks and change leaving me some wiggle room for early missteps.
D) Only run 4 days per week.
E) Never cycle longer than 2.5 hrs continuously.
F) Avoid early morning hard cycle workouts. So I'm going to try and do early morning easy runs instead on double days. We'll see, I'm not a big pre-work day runner.
G) Ensure total run volume equivalent is over 7.5 hrs at peak to ensure peak fitness levels. The plan is currently designed to hit a peak the week of 3/22 with a run volume of 5:05 hrs and cycle volume of 5:15 hrs. That would be a total of 7:42 hrs of run volume equivalent based on my past performance history.
H) Continue the strength routine of LIIFT4+McMillan Core or McMillan Legs on a 3-4 times per week basis.
The end goal is to be healthy on race day in order to give a good effort. Ideally, with the final race performance being around Garmin VO2max - 6 points to equal a VDOT time as long as the temperature/wind chill is in the 30-40 for the large majority of the race. I don't believe I can ask for much more than that given past performance.
Follow-up post