Top 5 Companies Disney Should Purchase Next

[danielshooley]

Hello everyone,

As many of you are aware, since Bob Iger took over for Mike Eisner at The Walt Disney Company, Disney has purchased a bunch of companies, including Pixar, Marvel Comics and LucasFilm, Ltd. to name 3 of them.

That being said, here's my personal opinion of the Top 5 Companies Disney should purchase next within the next 5-10 years.

1. The Jim Henson Company -- My Top Choice, especially considering in February 2004 Disney purchased the Muppets from The Jim Henson Company, as well as the fact that from 1991-1996, Disney owned what was then named Jim Henson Productions before selling the company to German-based EM.TV (a VERY Poor Decision, IMO), which had Jim's family purchase the company back in 2003 before Disney bought the Muppets.

2. Alien Productions -- Alien Productions is an independent company founded by Paul Fusco, the creator of the hit '80s sitcom "ALF." After NBC canceled "ALF," Disney, under Eisner, considered buying "ALF" out right before Paul Fusco signed a syndication deal with Warner Bros. Domestic Television Distribution for syndication rights to "ALF." If MY name were Bob Iger, I'd seriously suggest to Paul Fusco having "ALF" purchased by Disney.

3. MGM -- Considering its recent financial slump, I believe frankly that MGM should be purchased by Disney, especially considering Disney's Hollywood Studios was originally named Disney-MGM Studios before the 2005-ish name change.

4. Nickelodeon -- Yes, it's been owned by Viacom since 1986, but I believe personally if Viacom sold Nickelodeon to Disney, perhaps Disney could help Nickelodeon turn itself around.

5. Columbia Pictures -- Imagine how it would be if Columbia Pictures became Disney-owned? If Sony Pictures were to sell Columbia to Disney, maybe Columbia could become a major success once again at the Box-Office Multiplex.

 

[ADollarADay]

Before I address my top 5, I must question your choices, if you don't mind (Feel free to do the same for mine!)

Hello everyone,

As many of you are aware, since Bob Iger took over for Mike Eisner at The Walt Disney Company, Disney has purchased a bunch of companies, including Pixar, Marvel Comics and LucasFilm, Ltd. to name 3 of them.

That being said, here's my personal opinion of the Top 5 Companies Disney should purchase next within the next 5-10 years.

1. The Jim Henson Company -- My Top Choice, especially considering in February 2004 Disney purchased the Muppets from The Jim Henson Company, as well as the fact that from 1991-1996, Disney owned what was then named Jim Henson Productions before selling the company to German-based EM.TV (a VERY Poor Decision, IMO), which had Jim's family purchase the company back in 2003 before Disney bought the Muppets. Not sure what value they would bring since Disney owns the Muppets. What IPs do they have and/or what value do they bring? I am not too familiar with the firm.

2. Alien Productions -- Alien Productions is an independent company founded by Paul Fusco, the creator of the hit '80s sitcom "ALF." After NBC canceled "ALF," Disney, under Eisner, considered buying "ALF" out right before Paul Fusco signed a syndication deal with Warner Bros. Domestic Television Distribution for syndication rights to "ALF." If MY name were Bob Iger, I'd seriously suggest to Paul Fusco having "ALF" purchased by Disney. If it was cheap enough, they could certainly buy it and add it to the staple, however I'm not sure what value ALF would add in this day and age. How much you think this purchase would cost the company?

3. MGM -- Considering its recent financial slump, I believe frankly that MGM should be purchased by Disney, especially considering Disney's Hollywood Studios was originally named Disney-MGM Studios before the 2005-ish name change. Not a horrible choice, but kinda tricky. MGM owns UA which owns a couple of franchises where Disney has a gap (IMO PG13 - R teen/mature audience) like Robocop and Bond. They also have distribution rights to Middle Earth. I would guess its price would be high for what it has though, last time it got purchased was a Sony led conglomerate for ~5B

4. Nickelodeon -- Yes, it's been owned by Viacom since 1986, but I believe personally if Viacom sold Nickelodeon to Disney, perhaps Disney could help Nickelodeon turn itself around. Again, a decent choice, but I have to ask what the need for this is unless the price is right and it comes with good IPs. Disney has Disney Kids and some other channels after all. Do you know what IPs would come with Nickelodeon and how much you think the cost would be?

5. Columbia Pictures -- Imagine how it would be if Columbia Pictures became Disney-owned? If Sony Pictures were to sell Columbia to Disney, maybe Columbia could become a major success once again at the Box-Office Multiplex. I think this is a poor choice in this day and age. Columbia has no real relevant IPs, its biggest movie IP is Spiderman, which is owned by Disney owned Marvel. Its license to distribute Bond films has expired. It has Bad Boys and Ghostbusters. It is on the verge of becoming a mini major. I think its asking price would be expensive as well, probably north of 10B. Not worth it, but Disney should - and is trying - to reacquire the spiderman movie rights

My top 5:

1. Time Warner: By far my favorite, and I think smartest purchase. I actually think discussions about this are happening now, not only at Disney, but other companies as Bewkes is open to selling. Negotiations and lawyering/research may even be happening as we speak. Disney has lusted for CNN and Harry Potter before and TW owns them both. Like I said above, Disney has a gap in the adult market and Disney has a tendency of closing their gaps even if they don't work at first (Power Rangers for boys, Miramax for adult market). TW's own WB would easily fill it with Oscar worthy movies like Gran Torino and There could also be synergies between DC and the rest of Disney. They would also finally own a decent video game studio for the console market. I do think the SEC and FTC would look at this and might require the sale of some assets, such as TBS, TNT, Cinemax, MGM Holdings, maybe HBO (at least the streaming piece, maybe not the production piece), etc, but I believe what Disney would be interested in would stick, mainly WB and its subsidiaries + CNN. The rate paid to DIS market cap would be similar to the ABC acquisition in 1995 and would look better after liquidizing some assets (besides the above, DIS would get rid of Castle Rock, New Line, and may have to get rid of Middle Earth, etc).

Approximate price of purchase = $70-110B, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

2. Nintendo: This is my second favorite purchase. Disney severely lacks a presence in the game space which is incomprehensible. Nintendo has a lot of IPs with a lot of charm that is reminiscent of what Disney offers. They could easily integrate Nintendo characters in their other assets (theme parks only after universal's deal runs out). Nintendo could easily make a AAA game based off Disney's IPs. A great Mickey, Alladin, Lion King, Zootopia, Toy Story, Monster's Inc, etc game by Nintendo. A group of people that would be really upset about this would be, of course, the gamers. Disney would stop making hardware and focus solely on software distributing Nintendo games on playstation, xbox, steam, phones, etc. The only possible roadblock here is that the government of Japan might not allow a foreign company to own a japanese company like Nintendo.

Approximate price of purchase = $20-30B, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

3. Hasbro/Mattel: third option and it would be either Hasbro or Mattel (or Hasttel if they do end up merging). It would cut off the middle man and allow Disney to own the distribution channel for their products. The IPs they own are nothing that Disney doesn't already have covered (Transformers, Masters of Universe, Barbie), but they could still leverage them across their assets.

Approximate price of purchase = $15-17B each, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

4. EA/Naughty Dog/Take2: Again, Disney needs a presence in gaming as their presence has been paltry. EA has made plenty of Star Wars games for them and their Mass Effect engine could easily be tweaked to work and create a Star Wars RPG. Naughty Dog right now is the best in the business. They would have access to all of Disney's IPs that they could access at any time to create content. Take 2 makes the GTA games, but their engines could be easily tweaked for Disney IPs as well (they do have subsidiaries that make family games). Disney could also leverage some of those game IPs across their parks and other assets.

Approximate price of purchase = $25-27B EA, $5-6B Take 2, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium). ~$1B Naughty Dog, assuming IPs coming with it

5. Discovery: I would think this would a decent purchase, but should only be looked at if the above are not feasible. It allows for an ownership of Discovery, Animal Planet, and TLC. It would give Disney a venue to reach the education market and the biggest owner of the nature channels is Discovery. Discovery has a lot of subscribers as well, which means constant revenue. However, Disney recently launched DisneyNature which, while a different model, may mean that they are getting into that space by themselves. I'm not sure how well or not well that division is doing.

Approximate price of purchase = $40-60B, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

 

[danielshooley]

Thanks for asking, ADollarADay

As far as Disney owning Henson (again) would be concerned, it'd bring the Muppets and Henson Company BACK into the same family they NEVER should have left.

Estimated Purchase Price (The Jim Henson Company) = $150 million

ALF, in my humblest of opinion, would cost, at the very least, $1 million for Disney to purchase.

Considering MGM's recent financial slump, I would say it'd be MUCH Cheaper for Disney to purchase MGM today.

Estimated Purchase Price (MGM) = $5 million

If Disney were to purchase Nickelodeon, it could cost about $25 million for Disney.

If Disney were to purchase Columbia, it could cost them about $10 million to purchase Columbia from Sony.

These are all my theoretical opinions for MY Choices of what Disney should purchase.

As far as your choices are concerned of what Disney should purchase, they're not bad choices, but I doubt Disney would purchase the rights to "Grand Theft Auto" or any other Violent video game.

 

[danielshooley]

Well, Henson Company does have "Fraggle Rock" as its IP, and I WISH Disney would purchase it.

 

[ADollarADay]

You are severely underestimating what the cost would be for those companies.

Sony paid $3.4B to purchase Columbia Pictures in 1989. Sony Pictures was estimated to be worth $10B in 2014, Columbia probably being 70-80% of that value. I think Disney would pay 25-50 times your suggested Columbia value just to get the full film rights to spiderman back. Last time MGM was sold it was $5B IIRC. Nickelodeon would also cost billions and the rights to Alf would be in the tens of millions, at least. Maybe even a couple of hundred million. I have no idea about the JimHenson Company so I'll refrain from commenting.

 

[seascapemvy]

Before I address my top 5, I must question your choices, if you don't mind (Feel free to do the same for mine!)



My top 5:

1. Time Warner: By far my favorite, and I think smartest purchase. I actually think discussions about this are happening now, not only at Disney, but other companies as Bewkes is open to selling. Negotiations and lawyering/research may even be happening as we speak. Disney has lusted for CNN and Harry Potter before and TW owns them both. Like I said above, Disney has a gap in the adult market and Disney has a tendency of closing their gaps even if they don't work at first (Power Rangers for boys, Miramax for adult market). TW's own WB would easily fill it with Oscar worthy movies like Gran Torino and There could also be synergies between DC and the rest of Disney. They would also finally own a decent video game studio for the console market. I do think the SEC and FTC would look at this and might require the sale of some assets, such as TBS, TNT, Cinemax, MGM Holdings, maybe HBO (at least the streaming piece, maybe not the production piece), etc, but I believe what Disney would be interested in would stick, mainly WB and its subsidiaries + CNN. The rate paid to DIS market cap would be similar to the ABC acquisition in 1995 and would look better after liquidizing some assets (besides the above, DIS would get rid of Castle Rock, New Line, and may have to get rid of Middle Earth, etc).

Approximate price of purchase = $70-110B, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

2. Nintendo: This is my second favorite purchase. Disney severely lacks a presence in the game space which is incomprehensible. Nintendo has a lot of IPs with a lot of charm that is reminiscent of what Disney offers. They could easily integrate Nintendo characters in their other assets (theme parks only after universal's deal runs out). Nintendo could easily make a AAA game based off Disney's IPs. A great Mickey, Alladin, Lion King, Zootopia, Toy Story, Monster's Inc, etc game by Nintendo. A group of people that would be really upset about this would be, of course, the gamers. Disney would stop making hardware and focus solely on software distributing Nintendo games on playstation, xbox, steam, phones, etc. The only possible roadblock here is that the government of Japan might not allow a foreign company to own a japanese company like Nintendo.

Approximate price of purchase = $20-30B, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

3. Hasbro/Mattel: third option and it would be either Hasbro or Mattel (or Hasttel if they do end up merging). It would cut off the middle man and allow Disney to own the distribution channel for their products. The IPs they own are nothing that Disney doesn't already have covered (Transformers, Masters of Universe, Barbie), but they could still leverage them across their assets.

Approximate price of purchase = $15-17B each, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

4. EA/Naughty Dog/Take2: Again, Disney needs a presence in gaming as their presence has been paltry. EA has made plenty of Star Wars games for them and their Mass Effect engine could easily be tweaked to work and create a Star Wars RPG. Naughty Dog right now is the best in the business. They would have access to all of Disney's IPs that they could access at any time to create content. Take 2 makes the GTA games, but their engines could be easily tweaked for Disney IPs as well (they do have subsidiaries that make family games). Disney could also leverage some of those game IPs across their parks and other assets.

Approximate price of purchase = $25-27B EA, $5-6B Take 2, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium). ~$1B Naughty Dog, assuming IPs coming with it

5. Discovery: I would think this would a decent purchase, but should only be looked at if the above are not feasible. It allows for an ownership of Discovery, Animal Planet, and TLC. It would give Disney a venue to reach the education market and the biggest owner of the nature channels is Discovery. Discovery has a lot of subscribers as well, which means constant revenue. However, Disney recently launched DisneyNature which, while a different model, may mean that they are getting into that space by themselves. I'm not sure how well or not well that division is doing.

Approximate price of purchase = $40-60B, depending on stock price at time of purchase (plus premium)

I agree with you on Time Warner,except it would never happen. It would easily be Blocked on antitrust grounds. However the Sony movie business could get approval and would be interesting. Or maybe they could buy part of Time Warner if Time Warner were willing to split the company up. Disney could get approval for the non movie portion and that would be a more direct attack on Comcast.

 

[Dinohood]

has for Disney to purchase Nickelodeon would be like Honda buying Ford why? You want them to stay far away from each other nick and disney have been their own brands since forever and besides on the nickelodeon kids choice awards most of the shows and movies are from disney and they win.

 

[anneboleyn]

I know it will never happen, but I would love for Disney to purchase the rights to Peanuts. I think they could do amazing things together.

 

[ADollarADay]

I agree with you on Time Warner,except it would never happen. It would easily be Blocked on antitrust grounds. However the Sony movie business could get approval and would be interesting. Or maybe they could buy part of Time Warner if Time Warner were willing to split the company up. Disney could get approval for the non movie portion and that would be a more direct attack on Comcast.

On what grounds? Like I said, they would probably be required to sell some assets, such as TW's 50% stake on CW, Turner Sports, etc, but overall, I feel confident it would pass anti trust concerns.

 

[seascapemvy]

On what grounds? Like I said, they would probably be required to sell some assets, such as TW's 50% stake on CW, Turner Sports, etc, but overall, I feel confident it would pass anti trust concerns.

If Disney bought TWX they would have 50% of the north american movie box office, total control of the comic market and even have more control over Universal's theme parks since they would own Harry Potters movie rights. I wish they could get away with that but they can't and the Feds can't let one company have that much market share.

 

[ADollarADay]

If Disney bought TWX they would have 50% of the north american movie box office, total control of the comic market and even have more control over Universal's theme parks since they would own Harry Potters movie rights. I wish they could get away with that but they can't and the Feds can't let one company have that much market share.

SEC/FTC and the Sherman Act antitrust law generally does not consider anything under 50% to be a monopoly (At one point Universal Music had 40 something percent of the music label business and Sony ATV had around the same for music publishing). Also, the combination market share would be ~35% give or take 5% depending on the year for the NA box office. Comic book market is tricky as the combined market share is around 66-74%, depending on the year and the way you're calculating it. SEC/FTC would definitely look at it and they consider anything over 75% to generally be a monopoly (that's how Marvel almost went for the buyout of DC back in the days). Finally any smart lawyer would argue that comic books are a subset of books/magazines in general and should be looked as such (that's the way Hasbro Mattel could possibly merge). The last part doesn't even make sense. SEC/FTC would not look at that. They would have to sell some assets, but virtual integration with HBO and Turner Sports would be the main concerns. From WB's assets, the main concern would be the assets TWX owns from MGM (mainly Rocky, LOTR, etc).

 

[seascapemvy]

SEC/FTC and the Sherman Act antitrust law generally does not consider anything under 50% to be a monopoly (At one point Universal Music had 40 something percent of the music label business and Sony ATV had around the same for music publishing). Also, the combination market share would be ~35% give or take 5% depending on the year for the NA box office. Comic book market is tricky as the combined market share is around 66-74%, depending on the year and the way you're calculating it. SEC/FTC would definitely look at it and they consider anything over 75% to generally be a monopoly (that's how Marvel almost went for the buyout of DC back in the days). Finally any smart lawyer would argue that comic books are a subset of books/magazines in general and should be looked as such (that's the way Hasbro Mattel could possibly merge). The last part doesn't even make sense. SEC/FTC would not look at that. They would have to sell some assets, but virtual integration with HBO and Turner Sports would be the main concerns. From WB's assets, the main concern would be the assets TWX owns from MGM (mainly Rocky, LOTR, etc).

The last part is that owning HP movie rights means they own the rights Universal is using for HP in their parks. If Disney did go through with this they would own both Marvel and HP which are the 2 biggest draws at Universal Orlando and also would own the IP used at Six Flags. Right now there are 5 major theme park companies in the US and owning the biggest and controlling the IP used at the second and third is just too much .

Back to the movies. The Feds can also include the movie revenue used under contract and since Disney probably made more off of Deadpool than was made on Batman Vs Superman. Adding WB and Disney along with adding the other Marvel Character's does come extremely close to 50%if the box office if not more. Also the movie theaters would object and so would the other studios and theme park operators. Therefore while I would love the idea I'd adding WB and DC to the Disney fold I just can't see how the Feds would allow it and as much as it hurts to say I would object to it on antitrust grounds.

 

[ADollarADay]

The last part is that owning HP movie rights means they own the rights Universal is using for HP in their parks. If Disney did go through with this they would own both Marvel and HP which are the 2 biggest draws at Universal Orlando and also would own the IP used at Six Flags. Right now there are 5 major theme park companies in the US and owning the biggest and controlling the IP used at the second and third is just too much .

Back to the movies. The Feds can also include the movie revenue used under contract and since Disney probably made more off of Deadpool than was made on Batman Vs Superman. Adding WB and Disney along with adding the other Marvel Character's does come extremely close to 50%if the box office if not more. Also the movie theaters would object and so would the other studios and theme park operators. Therefore while I would love the idea I'd adding WB and DC to the Disney fold I just can't see how the Feds would allow it and as much as it hurts to say I would object to it on antitrust grounds.

The first part is a non factor. This is something I feel wouldn't even be looked at, but I understand we talk about theme parks here, so people feel it would be a factor. "Theme parks" is not a category that can be objectively looked at and analyzed. Furthermore, Marvel can be with Universal in Orlando forever if they want and JKR has ultimate say on where Harry Potter goes.

Your second statement is hearsay, i.e. looking at a movie Disney could make and add it to Disney's marketshare. Bottom line is Deadpool is a Fox movie, but even if you add those movies, it would not give you over 50%. SEC/FTC/DOJ operates on math and historical facts. Movie theaters and other movie studios may or may not object depending on what Disney would sell. People focus on these things when the main blockers would be stuff like Turner Sports, broadcasting channels and cable channels, maybe HBO, and probably WB's ownership of MGM's old movies/franchises.

 

[seascapemvy]

The first part is a non factor. This is something I feel wouldn't even be looked at, but I understand we talk about theme parks here, so people feel it would be a factor. "Theme parks" is not a category that can be objectively looked at and analyzed. Furthermore, Marvel can be with Universal in Orlando forever if they want and JKR has ultimate say on where Harry Potter goes.

Your second statement is hearsay, i.e. looking at a movie Disney could make and add it to Disney's marketshare. Bottom line is Deadpool is a Fox movie, but even if you add those movies, it would not give you over 50%. SEC/FTC/DOJ operates on math and historical facts. Movie theaters and other movie studios may or may not object depending on what Disney would sell. People focus on these things when the main blockers would be stuff like Turner Sports, broadcasting channels and cable channels, maybe HBO, and probably WB's ownership of MGM's old movies/franchises.

As of Tuesday Disneys market share is 29.2% of Box office. I strongly believe they will be a bit over 30% this year. WB will also be more than the 12% they currently have with the HP spinoff and Suicide Squad. Then you add in the Marvel stuff put out by other studios which Marvel does have a roll in and it easily adds up to more than 50%. Further keep in mind the next Spiderman movie put out by Sony was mentioned by Bob on the earnings call.

That said as a stockholder I would love if they could pull it off and get TWX. However as a movie lover and someone who cares about the economy and welfare of the country we need to make sure we have a competitve marketplace and so it can't be allowed. Besides its already possible for Disney to continue to grow internally and have over 1/3 the movie box office with the studios they already own and another 10% from other studios pictures working with Marvel. What I would like to see them add is more Drama's and smaller budget movies. Not every movie has to be a big box office hit. Low budget movies directed towards different parts of the market can make money and will awards.

 

[ADollarADay]

As of Tuesday Disneys market share is 29.2% of Box office. I strongly believe they will be a bit over 30% this year. WB will also be more than the 12% they currently have with the HP spinoff and Suicide Squad. Then you add in the Marvel stuff put out by other studios which Marvel does have a roll in and it easily adds up to more than 50%. Further keep in mind the next Spiderman movie put out by Sony was mentioned by Bob on the earnings call.

That said as a stockholder I would love if they could pull it off and get TWX. However as a movie lover and someone who cares about the economy and welfare of the country we need to make sure we have a competitve marketplace and so it can't be allowed. Besides its already possible for Disney to continue to grow internally and have over 1/3 the movie box office with the studios they already own and another 10% from other studios pictures working with Marvel. What I would like to see them add is more Drama's and smaller budget movies. Not every movie has to be a big box office hit. Low budget movies directed towards different parts of the market can make money and will awards.

You can't add Fox marvel movies to the marketshare. That's not how it works. It would NEVER be looked at it that way. I don't know why you keep using going there because it's a flawed logic. For the last 6 years the NA box office share was in the mid 30s. It is currently at 41. That is what DOJ/FTC/SEC looks at.

The way Disney is giving Sony everything and the kitchen sink for spiderman is a bit weird (I think they are actually getting the full rights back), but nevertheless, that's still a Sony movie. Regardless though you should read up on what the DOJ considers a monopoly, and also please consider that, like I said, the Universal and Sony had ~40%+ market share in the music label and music publishing industry at one point. The music industry only has 3 major players plus independents. The video game industry only had 3 major players + independent (PC) prior to the advent of the internet and it's now 6+1. At one point Nintendo and Sony had 70-80% plus market shares. There are other examples - that are much more relevant and important because they directly affect consumers - such as browser, OS marketshare.

Here's a good excerpt from the DOJ's site:

Following Alcoa and American Tobacco, courts typically have required a dominant market share before inferring the existence of monopoly power. The Fifth Circuit observed that "monopolization is rarely found when the defendant's share of the relevant market is below 70%."(22) Similarly, the Tenth Circuit noted that to establish "monopoly power, lower courts generally require a minimum market share of between 70% and 80%."(23) Likewise, the Third Circuit stated that "a share significantly larger than 55% has been required to establish prima facie market power"(24) and held that a market share between seventy-five percent and eighty percent of sales is "more than adequate to establish a prima facie case of power."(25)

It is also important to consider the share levels that have been held insufficient to allow courts to conclude that a defendant possesses monopoly power. The Eleventh Circuit held that a "market share at or less than 50% is inadequate as a matter of law to constitute monopoly power."(26) The Seventh Circuit observed that "[f]ifty percent is below any accepted benchmark for inferring monopoly power from market share."(27) A treatise agrees, contending that "it would be rare indeed to find that a firm with half of a market could individually control price over any significant period."(28)

https://www.justice.gov/atr/competi...conduct-under-section-2-sherman-act-chapter-2

There are exceptions to the 50% rule though. That is mainly directed at direct to consumer services such as broadcast, cable, etc. One good example is a single entity may not own TV stations that reach > 39% of US households and ABC, CBS, FOX, or NBC may not be under the same ownership or group.

https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/fccs-review-broadcast-ownership-rules

Your second point is a non issue due to the fact that competition would still be strong and active, not only externally (as shown above there would still be plenty of competition), but also internally. I would argue that the little Marvel-Lucasfilm and Disney Animation-Pixar rivalries are great for consumers and have brought us gems such as Zootopia, Inside Out, Civil War, etc. Furthermore, it would be hard to argue that Lucasfilm and Marvel are not producing more content and products for consumers now than they were before. Lucasfilm had never produced spin off movies (and Rogue One looks ace) and LucasArts was pretty dead sitting on amazing IPs before Disney start licensing them out (hence why we get things like Grim Fandango Remastered).

I admit that my main reason for wanting such an acquisition is due to my nerd tendencies and I would nerdgasm over what could happen, but WB and its subsidiaries would, for the most part, not be what would cause the block of such a move. Would the FTC/SEC/DOJ look at it? Absolutely. All of them? Possibly. Would they try to block it? Maybe. If they did though, there is a good chance Disney could fight it (and also make concessions to get the acquisition to pass).

 

[seascapemvy]

You can't add Fox marvel movies to the marketshare. That's not how it works. It would NEVER be looked at it that way. I don't know why you keep using going there because it's a flawed logic. For the last 6 years the NA box office share was in the mid 30s. It is currently at 41. That is what DOJ/FTC/SEC looks at.

The way Disney is giving Sony everything and the kitchen sink for spiderman is a bit weird (I think they are actually getting the full rights back), but nevertheless, that's still a Sony movie. Regardless though you should read up on what the DOJ considers a monopoly, and also please consider that, like I said, the Universal and Sony had ~40%+ market share in the music label and music publishing industry at one point. The music industry only has 3 major players plus independents. The video game industry only had 3 major players + independent (PC) prior to the advent of the internet and it's now 6+1. At one point Nintendo and Sony had 70-80% plus market shares. There are other examples - that are much more relevant and important because they directly affect consumers - such as browser, OS marketshare.

Here's a good excerpt from the DOJ's site:



https://www.justice.gov/atr/competi...conduct-under-section-2-sherman-act-chapter-2

There are exceptions to the 50% rule though. That is mainly directed at direct to consumer services such as broadcast, cable, etc. One good example is a single entity may not own TV stations that reach > 39% of US households and ABC, CBS, FOX, or NBC may not be under the same ownership or group.

https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/fccs-review-broadcast-ownership-rules

Your second point is a non issue due to the fact that competition would still be strong and active, not only externally (as shown above there would still be plenty of competition), but also internally. I would argue that the little Marvel-Lucasfilm and Disney Animation-Pixar rivalries are great for consumers and have brought us gems such as Zootopia, Inside Out, Civil War, etc. Furthermore, it would be hard to argue that Lucasfilm and Marvel are not producing more content and products for consumers now than they were before. Lucasfilm had never produced spin off movies (and Rogue One looks ace) and LucasArts was pretty dead sitting on amazing IPs before Disney start licensing them out (hence why we get things like Grim Fandango Remastered).

I admit that my main reason for wanting such an acquisition is due to my nerd tendencies and I would nerdgasm over what could happen, but WB and its subsidiaries would, for the most part, not be what would cause the block of such a move. Would the FTC/SEC/DOJ look at it? Absolutely. All of them? Possibly. Would they try to block it? Maybe. If they did though, there is a good chance Disney could fight it (and also make concessions to get the acquisition to pass).

You can't add Fox marvel movies to the marketshare. That's not how it works. It would NEVER be looked at it that way. I don't know why you keep using going there because it's a flawed logic. For the last 6 years the NA box office share was in the mid 30s. It is currently at 41. That is what DOJ/FTC/SEC looks at.

The way Disney is giving Sony everything and the kitchen sink for spiderman is a bit weird (I think they are actually getting the full rights back), but nevertheless, that's still a Sony movie. Regardless though you should read up on what the DOJ considers a monopoly, and also please consider that, like I said, the Universal and Sony had ~40%+ market share in the music label and music publishing industry at one point. The music industry only has 3 major players plus independents. The video game industry only had 3 major players + independent (PC) prior to the advent of the internet and it's now 6+1. At one point Nintendo and Sony had 70-80% plus market shares. There are other examples - that are much more relevant and important because they directly affect consumers - such as browser, OS marketshare.

Here's a good excerpt from the DOJ's site:



https://www.justice.gov/atr/competi...conduct-under-section-2-sherman-act-chapter-2

There are exceptions to the 50% rule though. That is mainly directed at direct to consumer services such as broadcast, cable, etc. One good example is a single entity may not own TV stations that reach > 39% of US households and ABC, CBS, FOX, or NBC may not be under the same ownership or group.

https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/fccs-review-broadcast-ownership-rules

Your second point is a non issue due to the fact that competition would still be strong and active, not only externally (as shown above there would still be plenty of competition), but also internally. I would argue that the little Marvel-Lucasfilm and Disney Animation-Pixar rivalries are great for consumers and have brought us gems such as Zootopia, Inside Out, Civil War, etc. Furthermore, it would be hard to argue that Lucasfilm and Marvel are not producing more content and products for consumers now than they were before. Lucasfilm had never produced spin off movies (and Rogue One looks ace) and LucasArts was pretty dead sitting on amazing IPs before Disney start licensing them out (hence why we get things like Grim Fandango Remastered).

I admit that my main reason for wanting such an acquisition is due to my nerd tendencies and I would nerdgasm over what could happen, but WB and its subsidiaries would, for the most part, not be what would cause the block of such a move. Would the FTC/SEC/DOJ look at it? Absolutely. All of them? Possibly. Would they try to block it? Maybe. If they did though, there is a good chance Disney could fight it (and also make concessions to get the acquisition to pass).

It's never going to happen so this discussion is a waste of time. As for prior mergers which were allowed under othet administrations is not relavent today. The current administration stopped the Comcast Time Warner Cable merger which would still have had about 33% of the cable market. That is much less than the 40% plus that Disney would directly own with WB. Disney will have 30% or more this year with just what they currently own.

Now who would oppose Disney buying anyother movie production company. The theatures. They already complain Disney insists on a higher cut of the tickets than other studios. The other studios would also object as would independent producers. Again as a Disney stockholder I would love it and make more money but it should never be allowed. If it could be Disney should buy them and while they are at it buy Six Flags.

 

[ADollarADay]

It's never going to happen so this discussion is a waste of time. As for prior mergers which were allowed under othet administrations is not relavent today. The current administration stopped the Comcast Time Warner Cable merger which would still have had about 33% of the cable market. That is much less than the 40% plus that Disney would directly own with WB. Disney will have 30% or more this year with just what they currently own.

Now who would oppose Disney buying anyother movie production company. The theatures. They already complain Disney insists on a higher cut of the tickets than other studios. The other studios would also object as would independent producers. Again as a Disney stockholder I would love it and make more money but it should never be allowed. If it could be Disney should buy them and while they are at it buy Six Flags.

You are free to stop talking about this whenever you want.

The facts are presented to you on what the law states, and you are just picking and choosing what you wanna talk about. TWC and Comcast is part of broadcast/cable services being directly offered to consumers in specific regions, part of what I said falls outside the general rule of thumb for Sherman's Antitrust Act. If it never happens, it will most likely be to high price of acquisition, boards not approving, etc as opposed to antitrust regulations. There are very few grounds on which there could be a block here, few of which involves the movie studios.

There is not a good enough business purpose to Disney buying Six Flags, so it's a redundant ask. Theaters and other studios would most likely be against it though, but like I said, it depends on what Disney would be selling (and in turn they would be buying) as well. For example, Fox (using it as an i.e.) would turn from 'against' to 'for' if they could get the Middle Earth and LOTR rights along with other MGM properties.

 

[danielshooley]

I think your list is pretty spot-on. Bringing back the Muppets and ALF could be a blast, and Disney's touch could really help MGM and Nickelodeon shine again.

 

[DodgerGirl]

If Disney was smart they would buy Fremantle Media and then they would buy the game shows Let's Make A Deal Family Feud Supermarket Sweep and it would be a grand idea since Let's Make A Deal Family Feud and Supermarket Sweep have a huge fanbase fans would enjoy seeing classic reruns of those shows on Disney+. A second channel that Disney could buy would be Game Show Network and if they bought Game Show Network Disney could get their hands on every single Game Show Network original show that's in their library and it would be marvelous to see. Then buy CBS and that would make CBS fans happy and I wonder why Disney didn't choose to buy CBS rather than ABC because it would've been so cool

 

[Nayan]

Disney is smart, that's why they haven't bought those networks. If they thought they would be profitable they would have.

Disney didn't buy CBS because they already had a distribution agreement with ABC and acquiring them made the most sense.