Travel Changes?

[Diana Risco]

Just got off the phone with ABD, all March and April Italy trips have been canceled.

 

[Candycane83]

Just got off the phone with ABD, all March and April Italy trips have been canceled.

Wonder what happens during the summer... lots of trips and cruises affected.

 

[neurosx1983]

@WebmasterJohn this seems like a salient topic for an upcoming dreams show. Questions and answers regarding travel changes due to this outbreak.

 

[DCPhotoGal]

Just got off the phone with ABD, all March and April Italy trips have been canceled.

Hm, I haven't gotten a call yet. Well I guess it's good to know for sure. What are they offering as alternatives?

 

[lovetotravel]

@WebmasterJohn this seems like a salient topic for an upcoming dreams show. Questions and answers regarding travel changes due to this outbreak.

Would be interesting to also cover insurance and consequences of canceling, ABD insurance vs outside insurance, different scenarios of canceling before and after PIF, PIF before deadline and canceling with ABD vs outside insurance, etc.

 

[Magnum_PI]

Would be interesting to also cover insurance and consequences of canceling, ABD insurance vs outside insurance, different scenarios of canceling before and after PIF, PIF before deadline and canceling with ABD vs outside insurance, etc.

I'm not an insurance expert, so do take this with a grain of salt. But most travel insurance does not cover pandemics/endemics/outbreaks as a covered reason for cancelling. That said, if ABD cancels they'll issue a refund in full. If you have ABD insurance, you could also use the "cancel for any reason" benefit to cancel if you're not comfortable going but ABD is still going forward with the trip (this benefit gets you a voucher for the value of 75% of your trip to be used towards another trip with ABD). Some outside travel insurance policies allow "cancel for any reason", but they tend to be pretty spendy and aren't what people typically purchase.

 

[lovetotravel]

I'm not an insurance expert, so do take this with a grain of salt. But most travel insurance does not cover pandemics/endemics/outbreaks as a covered reason for cancelling. That said, if ABD cancels they'll issue a refund in full. If you have ABD insurance, you could also use the "cancel for any reason" benefit to cancel if you're not comfortable going but ABD is still going forward with the trip (this benefit gets you a voucher for the value of 75% of your trip to be used towards another trip with ABD). Some outside travel insurance policies allow "cancel for any reason", but they tend to be pretty spendy and aren't what people typically purchase.

This makes sense, thanks for the clarification! I had cancel for any reason policy out of ABD. I also did PIF before the PIF deadline (dumb I realize, but it was before COVID 19). Then I canceled ABD before PIF deadline as I wanted to minimize loss. I was able to forward the entire balance of my trip towards a new trip. I was told that if I had ABD insurance, then the cancel for any reason ABD of only 75% would have been in force because I already PIF. So I got very lucky.

 

[Candycane83]

When this thread started I hadn’t started worrying too much about Europe but at this point with the higher risk of things not being ok during the summer, I’m leaning towards just moving my ABD for Barcelona to a placeholder instead. PIF is on March 12 so I’m being forced to decide now. Since I have a choice, I’m thinking I might as well not put that as an added stress. I’m already on the hook for flight (cancellation fees of 450) and cruise (moved already from last year ) plus some hotel reservations... I’m going to book my own tours and hotel to mimic ABD but fully cancellable until a month before the trip.

 

[neurosx1983]

When this thread started I hadn’t started worrying too much about Europe but at this point with the higher risk of things not being ok during the summer, I’m leaning towards just moving my ABD for Barcelona to a placeholder instead. PIF is on March 12 so I’m being forced to decide now. Since I have a choice, I’m thinking I might as well not put that as an added stress. I’m already on the hook for flight (cancellation fees of 450) and cruise (moved already from last year ) plus some hotel reservations... I’m going to book my own tours and hotel to mimic ABD but fully cancellable until a month before the trip.

I think its smart to not PIF for europe ABD's right now until things are sorted out. It's a little nerve wracking for me with our ABD in just two weeks. We've decided we are going to stick it out as long as we can. If the cases particularly in France keep going up we will probably cancel but there's no difference cancelling today vs cancelling a day before at this point.

 

[Candycane83]

I think its smart to not PIF for europe ABD's right now until things are sorted out. It's a little nerve wracking for me with our ABD in just two weeks. We've decided we are going to stick it out as long as we can. If the cases particularly in France keep going up we will probably cancel but there's no difference cancelling today vs cancelling a day before at this point.

It’s true, with information changing on a daily basis, it really is best just to wait until the very last minute already in your case. Good luck with that and I do hope things work out well for you!
I’m headed to Costa Rica in 2 weeks and although there are no reported cases, I’m also at the edge of my seat waiting as anything could really happen...

 

[Eastridge]

So do you think that based on ABD history of cancelling, they won't cancel until it is a level 3?

I called ABD Friday (2/28) morning. At that point, China was the only place they had cancelled trips because of the coronavirus. After that, Italy was raised to CDC level 3, and then we saw reports of ABD cancelling Italy trips going in March and April.

I don't think they have cancelled any Japan trips (yet) because of coronavirus. Japan is level 2.

I infer that CDC level 3 is the threshold for cancellation, and ABD will move quickly to cancel such trips if they are departing in the next several weeks. They are not yet cancelling trips that are further away (summertime) even if the country has CDC level 3, which I understand since the level might go down in the future.

 

[pistonfan32]

There is now a level 4 travel advisory in certain regions of Italy which are 40 miles from Milan. We are booked on the Italy/Switzerland trip on 7/31/20. This trip departs from Milan which is the region where many of the cases have been mentioned on the news.

Final payment is due 4/3/20. It's very early yet I still wonder what is going to happen. We also have first class airfare booked on Delta.

In the scheme of things, our money is minor compared to the worldwide impact of this health crisis that will undoubtedly expand.

 

[ngl]

There is now a level 4 travel advisory in certain regions of Italy which are 40 miles from Milan. We are booked on the Italy/Switzerland trip on 7/31/20. This trip departs from Milan which is the region where many of the cases have been mentioned on the news.

Final payment is due 4/3/20. It's very early yet I still wonder what is going to happen. We also have first class airfare booked on Delta.

In the scheme of things, our money is minor compared to the worldwide impact of this health crisis that will undoubtedly expand.

First, as you said, the money is immaterial when we are speaking about peoples' lives so I do not want to in anyway make comments that lessen that perspective so that is not my intention at all. We will figure it all out when it comes to travel.

We are in a similar situation with a Tauck Bridges trip in early July - PIF due 4/24. Same with airfare on Delta. Ours goes to Rome and South but of course who knows where this will end up. Up until our PIF date I think our theory is to wait and see. We aren't gaining or losing anything by cancelling now. If in 2 months things are worse then we have a Plan B (& C) ready to go. Like most on these boards we plan way in advance so it would be disappointing not to go but hopefully can push it to next summer. We feel at this point we just have to see how the next few months unravel.

 

[neurosx1983]

Just saw that the Louvre will be closing... Not sure for how long but I hope it’s open *if* we go there. Otherwise that’s a major bummer for the Paris part of London/Paris

strangely it’s been fun to try and come up with back up plans though. We thought about Hawaii and also the old standby WDW. But all the rooms are sold out for that week already!

first world problems...

 

[Woodview]

Think & Think this through .

We are now on the 1st of March 6 months before 31st August & Anything could happen

Look at the world economy if this lasts .

No production in factories as there will be no spare parts No Sport events AND MORE

So hopefully this will fade away in a few weeks as all things do.

As a European ....... will it stop me from travelling to Holland in April & Switzerland in May ..... No


Look on the Bright Side of life & things

 

[sethschroeder]

100 to 200 times as many people die from the flu every year than have died of the corona virus, and the vast majority of those corona virus deaths were in the small region of China where the outbreak began, which had poor healthcare.

I hate when people say this. This is roughly 20x worse. 2-3% mortality rate vs 0.1% for the flu.

Based on initial information it actually survives on hard surfaces drastically longer as well up to possibly 9 days vs the 24-48 hours of the flu.

The worst flu viruses are also immunized against cutting down the risk of infection compared to pretty much zero immunity against COV.

As an example a flu virus that starts in March in China may be the following falls flu outbreak in the US. The reason they can have flu vaccines is because these viruses are primarily outside the US but already active and typically very dossile (again 0.1% mortality rate).

So please stop comparing it to the flu.

Its fine if your not worried at all. I am not here to get everyone worked up but don't dismiss it with "well the flu". Still lots of unknowns with this virus.

 

[lovetotravel]

We can all agree that there is a lot of unknown with COVID 19. Which is why we are all on the edge about cancelling upcoming travel plans.

 

[sayhello]

I hate when people say this. This is roughly 20x worse. 2-3% mortality rate vs 0.1% for the flu.

Based on initial information it actually survives on hard surfaces drastically longer as well up to possibly 9 days vs the 24-48 hours of the flu.

The worst flu viruses are also immunized against cutting down the risk of infection compared to pretty much zero immunity against COV.

As an example a flu virus that starts in March in China may be the following falls flu outbreak in the US. The reason they can have flu vaccines is because these viruses are primarily outside the US but already active and typically very dossile (again 0.1% mortality rate).

So please stop comparing it to the flu.

Its fine if your not worried at all. I am not here to get everyone worked up but don't dismiss it with "well the flu". Still lots of unknowns with this virus.

Just for clarity's sake, the mortality rate is now 1.4% for Covid-19 and dropping. Experts are saying it's probably way lower than that, because they don't have testing in place for Covid-19 in a lot of places, so a lot of minor cases go undiagnosed, which inflates the mortality rate. As more testing is occurring, the mortality rate will begin to drop closer to the actual number.

Sayhello

 

[sethschroeder]

Just for clarity's sake, the mortality rate is now 1.4% for Covid-19 and dropping. Experts are saying it's probably way lower than that, because they don't have testing in place for Covid-19 in a lot of places, so a lot of minor cases go undiagnosed, which inflates the mortality rate. As more testing is occurring, the mortality rate will begin to drop closer to the actual number.

Sayhello

Where are you getting your numbers as numbers have spiked in the last week and it's over 3% now vs total cases. It's 6% vs recovered cases.

All these numbers will be inflated based on unreported those as well. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sources are listed at bottom of that website as to how they get the numbers.

 

[sayhello]

Where are you getting your numbers as numbers have spiked in the last week and it's over 3% now vs total cases. It's 6% vs recovered cases.

All these numbers will be inflated based on unreported those as well. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sources are listed at bottom of that website as to how they get the numbers.

I'm looking at the website you're looking at, and I'm seeing things like this:

Preliminary study providing a tentative 3% estimate for case fatality rate:

A preliminary study published on The Lancet on January 24 [3] provides an early estimation of 3% for the overall case fatality rate. Below we show an extract (highlights added for the relevant data and observations):

Almost all of the statistics on that page are the mortality rate in China, not worldwide. I do not see a worldwide number there. I also found this at the top of their page:

Last updated: February 29, 4:40 GMT
See also:

Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]
A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

I'm not seeing these numbers you're quoting. I got my numbers from a report on CBS where Dr. John LaPook was quoting from the CDC. I've found him to be a very reliable source. I don't find your source to be actually supporting your statements. If you could point me to the exact spot where you got your numbers, that would be great.

Sayhello