What is going on with Disney parks?

[xipotec]

Yup, part of it is age.

the other part were deals and free dining.....

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

The deals were out there for the Poly back then. You just had to know where to look. We stayed at the Poly for the first time in 2016 for about $300 a night, that included taxes. It might have even been under $300 per night. I have to check. Sadly the great Poly deals seem like a thing of the past.

That would make sense but I still think it makes for a bad comparison. Disney still offers discounts and free dining so comparing a trip with both to one without anything is not exactly fair. I get complaining about those things being limited or stripped down but that’s a different point.

 

[firefly_ris]

I've never stayed deluxe before so out of curiosity I put together a package on the Disney site - which in real life is not how I'd do it at all since I buy 3rd party tickets and never do a dining plan and look at 3rd party hotel sites, but I just wanted to see what a first timer wanting to do a package trip at the Poly would be who has no idea about how to get deals. Plus I'm contemplating renting DVC points for the next trip so I need some points of comparison.

5 people for 6 nights at the Poly with a 6 day Hopper ticket and the middle TS dining plan for the middle of August 2020 came out to $10,705.

Now, I can get us to WDW and have just as good of a trip for less than half that cost by simply not staying at the Poly and paying out of pocket for food, but I'm just thinking about someone who is trying to price out their "one and done" or very first trip with no idea that these rooms are going for 600, 700, 800 a night. I imagine that must scare some people away... But I guess not that many because they are filling the rooms!

They will continue to charge that because they get the money -- can't really blame them for that. It's a business and people pay. I would never pay $600 per night to stay in any room on property. But who cares, there's lots lined up behind me willing and able. When those people stop paying then they can adjust. Disneys hotels will be fine either way.

The only thing I really blame them for are parks related - cutting staff, hours, and experiences while at the same time increasing cost across the board, while also using those previously included hours for endless upcharge events instead. Their hotel prices are what they are, but souring people to the park experience itself may not help them long term. It dilutes the Parks brand, which goes hand in hand with the nostalgia thing discussed earlier.

 

[dlavender]

The deals were out there for the Poly back then. You just had to know where to look. We stayed at the Poly for the first time in 2016 for about $300 a night, that included taxes. It might have even been under $300 per night. I have to check. Sadly the great Poly deals seem like a thing of the past.

That's because they converted some of the rooms to DVC.........

Reduced inventory for the hotel side.

It's WDW's specialty right now. Manipulate supply, drive prices....

 

[elle21]

This is such an interesting discussion (though I haven’t read every page).
I think it’s easy to get caught in the Disney hype and you really have to take a step back. There is so much more out there to explore and enjoy in the country and world besides disney theme parks. I had an ‘aha’ moment about three years ago. We had recently come off our first trip with our kids. I was planning a trip to California and wanted to do DL and CA. I was looking at the craftsman style hotel, the play area of the park that’s designed to model national parks, and then thinking how I wish I could someday stay at Wilderness Lodge at DW. Then it hit me that this was the dumbest thing ever. I wanted to get a taste of our national parks in a theme park. Why not explore our country and take vacations at the real thing?? We skipped the California trip and It inspired a trip we are taking this summer to four national parks.
We are also going to drive down to Disney world this summer (we live much closer now). But we’ll do an off site stay again, four day magic ticket instead of 7 day tickets like last time and just one Disney restaurant meal a day. We’ll have a great time and not succumb to the insanity of Disney pricing. The happiness returns for our investment will be just as great with a smaller/ more budget friendly trip as they would with a blowout trip.

 

[Firebird060]

i still stay at Poly for 300 a night I have one coming up in March, Im just a bit of a risk taker and watch the dvc rent trade boards, granted its not a 11 month out booking but I never book 11 months out Im always a 90 to 120 day booker, or sometimes a 30 day booker depending if I have the vacation time coming up or not. There are ways to still find deals but it defiantly takes alot more work and being willing to resort hop, things I do understand the novice Diser is less likely to feel confident in doing that some of us do.

In saying that I am planning to buy into DVC in the next few years, either at the new Disneyland DVC property or with reflections purely because I see the benefit of a magic kingdom resort regardless if its non Monorail. Do i see it as a investment, not really, I expect that it will cost me the cost of a decent new truck over the lifetime of the contract but It will allow me to have a bit more flexibility which in the long run will prob be worth it for me. Though in saying all of that I suspect the "lifetime value" of the next two announced DVCs the one at Disneyland will prob have a higher value use and resale, just due to the lack of current DVC inventory at Disneyland.

 

[hertamaniac]

That's because they converted some of the rooms to DVC.........

Reduced inventory for the hotel side.

It's WDW's specialty right now. Manipulate supply, drive prices....

You definitely have your finger on the pulse of what made me turn a little more sour to WDW. I don't care what I paid for a rack rate at a resort in the past (or if I was a DVC owner and think I got a great deal). What turns me away is the compounding theme park rates for what I see is effectively a mosh-pit experience regardless of the park. Why I would buy a DVC contract to have that type of experience is beyond me as I don't currently plan to participate in that overrated frenzy.

 

[dlavender]

Well I didn't say if you bought today it would double. If you scroll up I said "nobody knows".

I do strongly believe room rates will double in the next 5 years, so why would I lock up in to that?

But I did say the resales bought about 5 years ago have doubled-so yes it was a no brainer.

I also said I would still buy today if I didn't have any DVC, because with all of the new attractions/lands we will be going each year.

Rooms on cash are more expensive than for example a BWV resale, even a triple of 5 years ago

I just don't have to because I'm in that boat.

Ok, now we are getting to it.

That's right, in today's WDW, even you, a DVC enthusiast and "defender" are saying "nobody knows." Speaks volumes...

No, resales bought 5 years ago have not doubled. Up 30%? Yes. Far cry from doubling. Those who bought 5 years ago, IMO, will be the last to see double digit appreciations like that. In about 10 years I feel there will be a big dump of contracts into the resale market as 2052 looms. But again, just like the people who stocked up on non expiring tickets, great job.

Rooms on cash are getting more expensive because......they keep taking deluxe rooms out of inventory and converting them to DVC. They are brilliant. They are leading people to DVC by driving costs up by converting to DVC.......

If there really was a line of people clamoring to pay $600 rack rates, I'm pretty sure we'd see a new deluxe. Instead, we just see new DVC......

 

[firefly_ris]

Rooms on cash are getting more expensive because......they keep taking deluxe rooms out of inventory and converting them to DVC. They are brilliant. They are leading people to DVC by driving costs up by converting to DVC.......

If there really was a line of people clamoring to pay $600 rack rates, I'm pretty sure we'd see a new deluxe. Instead, we just see new DVC......

This is a really good point that hadn't even crossed my mind. Wilderness Lodge and Poly both have areas that used to be regular rooms and were converted, correct? As opposed to building a new wing like BLT... How many other resorts did that?

 

[Firebird060]

You definitely have your finger on the pulse of what made me turn a little more sour to WDW. I don't care what I paid for a rack rate at a resort in the past (or if I was a DVC owner and think I got a great deal). What turns me away is the compounding theme park rates for what I see is effectively a mosh-pit experience regardless of the park. Why I would buy a DVC contract to have that type of experience is beyond me as I don't currently plan to participate in that overrated frenzy.

Thats a perfectly reasonable train of thought, for me its less about that and more that Disney is a easy quick vacation for me and the wife. We are lucky enough that we work at a place that affords us 3 weeks of vacation and 2 weeks of sick time plus holidays. We do not have the longer vacation times like you see in some European nations but for the US we have a decent amount of time off, I do understand how lucky we are to have those benefits.

WDW is not a value vacation anymore. Last year I went to Scotland, France and Disneyland Paris for a 12 day trip, 3 for DLP, for half the price if If I did a typical 10 day at WDW deluxe using standard room "discounts". The DLP park was defiantly not as crowded as WDW so yeah even going to a different Dis bubble can be cheaper and come with other non disney experiences.

The benefit that draws me to WDW though is that I can do everything a bit quicker and easier not cheaper then if I was going to other places and sometimes I just want a vacation where I know what to expect a little less planning for the times I need a vacation for a mental break from work is nice even if it costs more. Sure there are other things to experience out there in the world and I encourage anyone who can, to try and experience those things but I do understand why some are just comfortable paying out the nose for WDW

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

Ok, now we are getting to it.

That's right, in today's WDW, even you, a DVC enthusiast and "defender" are saying "nobody knows." Speaks volumes...

No, resales bought 5 years ago have not doubled. Up 30%? Yes. Far cry from doubling. Those who bought 5 years ago, IMO, will be the last to see double digit appreciations like that. In about 10 years I feel there will be a big dump of contracts into the resale market as 2052 looms. But again, just like the people who stocked up on non expiring tickets, great job.

Rooms on cash are getting more expensive because......they keep taking deluxe rooms out of inventory and converting them to DVC. They are brilliant. They are leading people to DVC by driving costs up by converting to DVC.......

If there really was a line of people clamoring to pay $600 rack rates, I'm pretty sure we'd see a new deluxe. Instead, we just see new DVC......

Does Star Wars count as deluxe? I know that is going to be priced at more than $600.

 

[dlavender]

This is a really good point that hadn't even crossed my mind. Wilderness Lodge and Poly both have areas that used to be regular rooms and were converted, correct? As opposed to building a new wing like BLT... How many other resorts did that?

Yes. Poly had 3 longhouses that they took out of inventory and converted. WL had the whole south wing converted. Over 100 rooms. AKL converted Jambo to DVC. I don't know about Grand Floridian. I think only a small # of rooms were converted.

 

[dlavender]

Does Star Wars count as deluxe? I know that is going to be priced at more than $600.

I'd say Star Wars Hotel is a new category all together. It's not a typical deluxe. The comparison is a cruise ship. It's obviously laser focused on one area. Not many people spending a week at WDW will make that their "home resort".

Now, if it doesn't take off (see what I did there?), it could convert to a more traditional deluxe.

Also, take a look at its size.......

 

[hertamaniac]

Thats a perfectly reasonable train of thought, for me its less about that and more that Disney is a easy quick vacation for me and the wife. We are lucky enough that we work at a place that affords us 3 weeks of vacation and 2 weeks of sick time plus holidays. We do not have the longer vacation times like you see in some European nations but for the US we have a decent amount of time off, I do understand how lucky we are to have those benefits.

WDW is not a value vacation anymore. Last year I went to Scotland, France and Disneyland Paris for a 12 day trip, 3 for DLP, for half the price if If I did a typical 10 day at WDW deluxe using standard room "discounts". The DLP park was defiantly not as crowded as WDW so yeah even going to a different Dis bubble can be cheaper and come with other non disney experiences.

The benefit that draws me to WDW though is that I can do everything a bit quicker and easier not cheaper then if I was going to other places and sometimes I just want a vacation where I know what to expect a little less planning for the times I need a vacation for a mental break from work is nice even if it costs more. Sure there are other things to experience out there in the world and I encourage anyone who can, to try and experience those things but I do understand why some are just comfortable paying out the nose for WDW

Oh...it doesn't get much easier for us to drive over to WDW armed with AP's. Over the past several years it became less about how lucky/convenient it is for us, but how the in park experience has nosedived. We can go any day of the week and it's not a financial deterrent to get Weekday Select AP (not said to be bragging). It points back to what I see as pillaging with a crowd competitive situation.

Now, I say this sort of tongue in cheek as in a little over a week, we're going to stay onsite and have purchased a single day park ticket to HS. But, after reading/seeing the rigamarole to try and get a boarding pass for RotR (3 months after opening), I don't see a return trip to any of the parks for years. It has turned this local away from the renewal AP train.

I still maintain that visiting the WDW resorts is a wonderful experience. We often park at DS and just use their transportation to visit them. It costs us only gas and time.

 

[Brianstl]

Ok, now we are getting to it.

That's right, in today's WDW, even you, a DVC enthusiast and "defender" are saying "nobody knows." Speaks volumes...

No, resales bought 5 years ago have not doubled. Up 30%? Yes. Far cry from doubling. Those who bought 5 years ago, IMO, will be the last to see double digit appreciations like that. In about 10 years I feel there will be a big dump of contracts into the resale market as 2052 looms. But again, just like the people who stocked up on non expiring tickets, great job.

Rooms on cash are getting more expensive because......they keep taking deluxe rooms out of inventory and converting them to DVC. They are brilliant. They are leading people to DVC by driving costs up by converting to DVC.......

If there really was a line of people clamoring to pay $600 rack rates, I'm pretty sure we'd see a new deluxe. Instead, we just see new DVC......

They will be adding a good deal of deluxe hotel rooms to the inventory when Reflections opens up.

 

[dlavender]

They will be adding a good deal of deluxe hotel rooms to the inventory when Reflections opens up.

Do we know the mix on that yet?

I predict that it becomes more DVC than hotel over the years....

 

[Firebird060]

Oh...it doesn't get much easier for us to drive over to WDW armed with AP's. Over the past several years it became less about how lucky/convenient it is for us, but how the in park experience has nosedived. We can go any day of the week and it's not a financial deterrent to get Weekday Select AP (not said to be bragging). It points back to what I see as pillaging with a crowd competitive situation.

Now, I say this sort of tongue in cheek as in a little over a week, we're going to stay onsite and have purchased a single day park ticket to HS. But, after reading/seeing the rigamarole to try and get a boarding pass for RotR (3 months after opening), I don't see a return trip to any of the parks for years. It has turned this local away from the renewal AP train.

I still maintain that visiting the WDW resorts is a wonderful experience. We often park at DS and just use their transportation to visit them. It costs us only gas and time.

I can agree that the park experience is defiantly not what it used to be. I miss all of the extras that has been stripped out of WDW, I never went to WDW for the rides and the removing of some of the little things does bother me alot. I just guess I am a glutton for punishment though.

 

[hertamaniac]

I predict that it becomes more DVC than hotel over the years....

That's it. I sense it will use the hotel side to lure guests into the experience and then once they have a gauge of popularity and/or price target, the conversion begins. Like you said it's smart, but I think predictable.

 

[hertamaniac]

I can agree that the park experience is defiantly not what it used to be. I miss all of the extras that has been stripped out of WDW, I never went to WDW for the rides and the removing of some of the little things does bother me alot. I just guess I am a glutton for punishment though.

So this is where I see DVC ownership becomes less attractive. If I owned DVC and encountered what I have seen over the past several years in the parks, I would become an immediate seller. I do not want to be married to what I feel is an eroding experience, year after year.

 

[ChipnDale79]

So this is where I see DVC ownership becomes less attractive. If I owned DVC and encountered what I have seen over the past several years in the parks, I would become an immediate seller. I do not want to be married to what I feel is an eroding experience, year after year.

we almost bought into it 10 years ago. We we're head over heels for disney and have spent a ton of our vacation time there the past 12 years. I'm so glad we didnt buy in.

I'm so tired of the experience of disney and how much it costs.

Our planned vacations over the next 3 years
2020 Cruise
2021 Dinsey (last trip before our oldest turns 10)
2022 Colorado

There was a time that every one of those would have been disney. They've drove me away.