When do airfare prices drop (if ever)?

[guinness408]

I've been stalking Jetblue and delta flights for our end of August trip and airfare is over $600pp! I read somewhere that airlines discount prices 4 months out and on Tuesdays. I'm not sure how accurate this is... I always have bought tickets at least 6 months in advance and I'm concerned to wait too long. Any advice? Should I wait a bit longer?

 

[thanxfornoticin]

It is so hit and miss anymore. There are a number of factors that you might not be able to see - like how strong are ticket sales on the flight you want? Sometimes you can catch a dip in prices, and sometimes it just doesn't come. It used to be way more predictable - but I'd say keep checking back often. Can you tell online which seats are taken and how many are empty? That might give you a slight clue about how popular the flight is at this point.

When you say end of August, you're not getting into any of the Labor Day weekend, are you? Good luck with it - I'd probably give it a little more time and see if you save some money.

 

[Jimsig]

If any of us knew the exact answer to that we would all be rich from playing and winning the lottery with all the money we saved from buying airline ticksts at their lowest prices

Honestly you never know. Some people swear the sweet spot is something like 56 days out (I can't remember the number I have seen thrown out here before but it's around that IIRC), but no one really knows. Every time I have recently purchased tickets either from BOS to MCO or BOS to LAX I have only seen the price go up after I purchase, usually we fly on a Fri and back on a Sun.

I posted recently in another thread that i had been looking at flights down on a Thur and back on a Fri and they had been about $164 each way for a while. When I finally got my Disney plans down I went to buy the tickets and the flights going down had gone up to $264. I kept checking and finally the flights down went back to $164 and I jumped on it. The next days the fare had gone back up to $264.

A few years ago I was eyeing a trip from Bos and PVD to MCO. From BOS JetBlue wanted $800 R/T for 2 people and wanted $1000 from PVD and those fares stayed steady for a while. When I went to purchase from BOS I decided to check PVD again and the fare dropped to $500 for 2 people. The flight going down was on a Thur in this case.

On JB when ever they have a sale it seems the best prices are for mid-week flights.

 

[alliecat523]

Also, try searching on a private browser or clear you cookies. Repeated attempts in the same browser will yield high prices.

 

[Jimsig]

Can you tell online which seats are taken and how many are empty? That might give you a slight clue about how popular the flight is at this point.

With JB's new fare, Blye Basic, you don't get pick a seat assignment until 24 hours prior, unless you pay extra. So in effect that has made it harder to gauge how full a flight is.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

With JB's new fare, Blye Basic, you don't get pick a seat assignment until 24 hours prior, unless you pay extra. So in effect that has made it harder to gauge how full a flight is.

That makes sense. I expect other airlines have similar setups. And for folks flying Southwest, there are no seat assignments - so my suggestion is probably only marginally helpful!

 

[Jimsig]

That makes sense. I expect other airlines have similar setups. And for folks flying Southwest, there are no seat assignments - so my suggestion is probably only marginally helpful!

For JB up to a couple months ago it was a great way of figuring things out space wise as they do not oversell a flight. They just followed suit of the other airlines that have that low fare option of not picking a seat until 24 hours out or get it as a gate assignment.

 

[James From Utah]

Check google flights. It will show you price graphs for all airlines operating that route and help you identify the cheapest day to fly.

 

[guinness408]

Also, try searching on a private browser or clear you cookies. Repeated attempts in the same browser will yield high prices.

Thank you- never thought to do that but I will do so going forward. Great reminder

 

[guinness408]

Check google flights. It will show you price graphs for all airlines operating that route and help you identify the cheapest day to fly.

Thank you! Never heard of google flights

 

[guinness408]

For JB up to a couple months ago it was a great way of figuring things out space wise as they do not oversell a flight. They just followed suit of the other airlines that have that low fare option of not picking a seat until 24 hours out or get it as a gate assignment.

I have been checking the seat assignments but totally forgot about the new seating options. Definitely can't rely on an empty-looking plane!

 

[BarlowFamily]

I have loved this tracking fares for flights on this site: http://matrix.itasoftware.com

 

[Upatnoon]

https://www.farecompare.com/maps/MCO-

 

[DLgal]

4-6 weeks before is the sweet spot for best prices.

 

[marcyleecorgan]

I find the pattern to be When the flight is first released, then 6 months out and then 3 weeks prior.

 

[sam_gordon]

4-6 weeks before is the sweet spot for best prices.

Got any facts to back that up? Try this thread... https://www.disboards.com/threads/best-time-to-book-air-heres-some-documentation.3781184/

THERE. ARE. NO. RULES. What works for one person on one route at one time of year will not necessarily work for someone else on a different route at a different time of year.

I think it was Cheaptickets.com that did a study a couple of years ago. While on AVERAGE, the best time to buy was 4-6 weeks out, that was just the AVERAGE. They even said in their article that doesn't always work.

To the OP, do you have another way to get to your destination if flight tickets don't drop? If so, I would wait. If not, I'd debate if it was worth it to spend $600 (I assume that's per person) on travel.

 

[DLgal]

Got any facts to back that up? Try this thread... https://www.disboards.com/threads/best-time-to-book-air-heres-some-documentation.3781184/

THERE. ARE. NO. RULES. What works for one person on one route at one time of year will not necessarily work for someone else on a different route at a different time of year.

I think it was Cheaptickets.com that did a study a couple of years ago. While on AVERAGE, the best time to buy was 4-6 weeks out, that was just the AVERAGE. They even said in their article that doesn't always work.

To the OP, do you have another way to get to your destination if flight tickets don't drop? If so, I would wait. If not, I'd debate if it was worth it to spend $600 (I assume that's per person) on travel.

It works for me every single time. I was sharing what has worked for me.

 

[Harambe]

Glad to see this thread. I have been checking non-stops from BOS to MCO departing Wed and returning the following Mon, in early December. A bit surprised at the prices!!!! I used to fly all 4 of us down in Jan for only about 300 more than it is costing for 2 of us!

Think I will wait a bit, but I'd rather have the flights in hand and check that off the list for our trip.

My question is - is there any perks to purchasing the tickets at a certain time of day/evening? My coworker says to always buy tickets late evening (??)

 

[Anthony1971]

I do not think there is any particular time that gets the best prices. Recently I have seen the closer you get the prices seem to drop for a short period of time on certain flights than go back up again. I will caution if you are looking to fly home only in an afternoon flight buy them period... if you do not care the time weather it be at 7AM or 11PM than wait as from what I have seen it is the off time flights that drop.. want the 1pm flight going home I would say it likely will not change much as this is the flight everyone wants. The end of August was at one time cheap to fly but since Disney started running the free DP those weeks it has progressively gotten more expensive... While this year there is no FD promotion during that time the crowds seem to be going anyway so it may have no effect on the pricing. If you are going into the first week of September as Labor day is late this year.. the closer you get to labor day to fly home the more $$$$ it will be. If you can fly home a few days after Labor day it will be very cheap but as I know myself most people cannot... Last year I paid just under 300 one way a person coming back on the WEDENSDAY before labor day....prices did not change period for the late morning early afternoon flights but for one day there was a 89 9PM flight....

 

[tinkerhon]

Not sure if this was mentioned, but read many articles that state that the best time to check is Tuesday at noon - the airlines set their prices ( in MOST cases) on Monday evening , and they are posted on tues - then the other airlines try to match the lowest offered price