Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[KAT4DISNEY]

How much was VGC back then?

LAX

How much was VGC back then?

LAX

I recall direct with incentives in the $88/pt range and I believe resales could be found in the mid $70's although there's never been a lot of them.

 

[bookwormde]

4/3 Update

Average number of new resale contracts

New Aulani contracts came on in the high 80s

 

[MICKIMINI]

Looking at the bigger resellers this morning, maybe it was my imagination, but there seemed to be one in particular with many new, virtually stripped and overpriced contracts IMO. Perhaps owners of multiple contracts are listing all of them knowing they may get a bite on one or two and then pull the others. I often see a pattern, for instance same UY and same weird number of points for multiple contracts at the same and/or different resorts, mostly all stripped. The best values will be gone quickly as OP's have mentioned, but I believe sheer number of contracts listed in the next couple of months will thin prices substantially. Have your pencils sharpened...

 

[Matty B13]

Seems like some brokers are actually listing contracts with higher prices!!!! Can't believe it. I guess anyone who is looking for contracts will have to wait it out for awhile so see if they drop. Might have to wait till this fall when people start having to save up for MF's for 2021.

 

[poofyo101]

All of this speculation that it will go down is great, however it does not matter if disney does not stop ROFRing at the current rates/prices.

Most expect them to stop ROFRing but until this happens the prices aren't going to drop dramatically.
IMO

As there has been no proof of super low prices getting through ROFR yet on the ROFR thread.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

All of this speculation that it will go down is great, however it does not matter if disney does not stop ROFRing at the current rates/prices.

Most expect them to stop ROFRing but until this happens the prices aren't going to drop dramatically.
IMO

As there has been no proof of super low prices getting through ROFR yet on the ROFR thread.

It mainly seems like right now buyers have dried up due to uncertainty which makes sense. The federal government is pumping a lot of money into people’s pockets soon but it hasn’t gotten there yet. Between the one time payments and unemployment enhancement it seems like a lot of people are not going to be hit hard yet anyways. At least through July. Business owners on the other hand and commission based jobs are in a rough spot. It’s hard to judge right now, because this isn’t normal. Jobless claims are insane because certain sectors are shut down.

it sounds like Disney isn’t treating it like a normal recession yet either.I saw in another thread they recently applied for a bunch of reflections based permits so that might be going ahead like usual. I honestly don’t know how long some mid or small companies can last under a month or two or three of shut down. If restrictions can be eased in that time frame I expect a lot of stuff just goes back to mostly normal. Cruises might not though.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I suspect certain permitting for Reflections will continue as DVC may be planning on bidding or rebidding certain segments of construction that may have been at a premium a month ago and may be very competitive now, though they will have to wait to continue construction. I'm guessing they will continue to build but at a slower pace as they will need to have something to sell in 3-5 years.

 

[Brianstl]

All of this speculation that it will go down is great, however it does not matter if disney does not stop ROFRing at the current rates/prices.

Most expect them to stop ROFRing but until this happens the prices aren't going to drop dramatically.
IMO

As there has been no proof of super low prices getting through ROFR yet on the ROFR thread.

You were the last contract to get ROFRed and that was almost three weeks ago and probably further back than that if you were going through Fidelity. The decision to exercise ROFR was most certainly made before they knew they were shutting down everything and they had no income coming in from theaters and ad revenue disappeared from their media properties.

 

[Brianstl]

It mainly seems like right now buyers have dried up due to uncertainty which makes sense. The federal government is pumping a lot of money into people’s pockets soon but it hasn’t gotten there yet. Between the one time payments and unemployment enhancement it seems like a lot of people are not going to be hit hard yet anyways. At least through July. Business owners on the other hand and commission based jobs are in a rough spot. It’s hard to judge right now, because this isn’t normal. Jobless claims are insane because certain sectors are shut down.

it sounds like Disney isn’t treating it like a normal recession yet either.I saw in another thread they recently applied for a bunch of reflections based permits so that might be going ahead like usual. I honestly don’t know how long some mid or small companies can last under a month or two or three of shut down. If restrictions can be eased in that time frame I expect a lot of stuff just goes back to mostly normal. Cruises might not though.

It was a bunch of permits that got approved. I think Disney probably submitted for those permits before this all started.

 

[bookwormde]

It was a bunch of permits that got approved. I think Disney probably submitted for those permits before this all started.

As I understand t these were released from imagineering in April

 

[bookwormde]

Here is what have seen so far:
There was a surge of additional resale contracts when stock market was falling dramatically in March, since then the rate of new resales has been typical of what we have seen over the last years

Demand for "bargains" has been strong especially for smaller contracts.

There have been a lot of resale contracts that have lowered their asking price significantly

At several resorts the prices have dropped quite significantly while at others they have held up pretty well.

My guess is that some of the owners of April and June contracts are waiting for the final word from DVC on if any relief from their expiring points is going to happen.

 

[Deploraboo]

Chances of Utilizing drawdowns on corporate revolver to fund ROFRs = not very good

 

[sky2823]

curious...

which resorts do you view holding up well price wise so far and which ones are showing weakness?

 

[bookwormde]

curious...

which resorts do you view holding up well price wise so far and which ones are showing weakness?

BCV, CCV AKV and SSR have held up pretty well s far, VGF, Poly, OKW, BWV and AUL have taken a stronger hit

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

Thanks to all for such interesting discussion! I’m hoping to be able to buy some more points in the near future. The possibility of a market price adjustment is great news for us! - We have GF taste on a HH budget!

 

[Galun]

I made offers on multiple contracts last week. I was looking for double to triple loaded contracts as I already had large bookings lined up. I could reallocate those newly acquired banked points and get back the current use year points that I used to make those reservations.

I paid no attention to the asking price, and offered what I thought they were worth. My offers got rejected on a few but I was successful on two. They were maybe 10 - 20% off of asking price, and with the value of the banked points the net price was substantially lower since I get 2018/2019 points for free as well. On a net price basis it was maybe back to mid 2015 prices. The contracts were just 5% higher than when I last added in early 2015.

IMO the difference between this recession and the previous ones was the direct injection of cash into the economy by the US government. If the current stimulus is not enough, it’s an election year and I think both parties will agree to more stimulus. Selling DVC is not an easy source of cash - you need to pay a commission to the broker, and you need to wait months to get the cash due to rofr / closing etc. Also people have already paid their 2020 maintenance fees.

I personally don’t think there will be a substantial increase in desperate sellers unless this recession continues well into the end of this year, if the government does not have additional stimulus, and people look at their 2021 maintenance fees. If you see a contract you like, just offer and see what happens. Worst case is that particular seller will say no, and you move on to another one. You never know how desperate the seller may be until you offer. The broker will have an idea on the seller’s situation as well, and can possibly recommend you to offer on other contracts.

 

[Perelandra]

You all are very optimistic. That's fantastic! I'm not sure how it exactly works out though. We have a country that has decided to put the economy in a coma until they feel comfortable everything is under control, with no timeframe. This is one of the most discretionary items that you could possibly own, with dues that go up every year beyond anyone's control. I would have to imagine theme parks, with thousands of people piled on top of one another, and countless surfaces, will be one of the last things to re-open. I hate to say it, but I don't think there is a normal to go back to, and I have no idea how Disney parks fit into the "new normal". Disney has pushed the envelope to this point on the back of one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Now what happens with the greatest economic downturn in a 100 years is anyone's guess. And if you question that last statement, just look at jobless claims for the last couple of weeks, and imagine that at least 2 states already have shut down the economy until June 15th. Help me see past this. Give me reasons to think otherwise. Thanks in advance.

 

[Galun]

You all are very optimistic. That's fantastic! I'm not sure how it exactly works out though. We have a country that has decided to put the economy in a coma until they feel comfortable everything is under control, with no timeframe. This is one of the most discretionary items that you could possibly own, with dues that go up every year beyond anyone's control. I would have to imagine theme parks, with thousands of people piled on top of one another, and countless surfaces, will be one of the last things to re-open. I hate to say it, but I don't think there is a normal to go back to, and I have no idea how Disney parks fit into the "new normal". Disney has pushed the envelope to this point on the back of one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Now what happens with the greatest economic downturn in a 100 years is anyone's guess. And if you question that last statement, just look at jobless claims for the last couple of weeks, and imagine that at least 2 states already have shut down the economy until June 15th. Help me see past this. Give me reasons to think otherwise. Thanks in advance.

IMO

Unemployment claims vastly over represent true unemployment, as many employers are furloughing their employees so they can get unemployment immediately from the government.

Stimulus bill essentially gives small businesses 2 months worth grant of payroll and rent support. There small businesses account for around 40% of US workforce. For large businesses, they get separate grants and loans to keep paying people. If 2 months of support is not enough, new stimulus bill will be passed, because it’s an election year and nobody wants to be seen in the way of obstructing people getting paid. This is basically a case of the entire economy being too big to fail.

This is not a structural issue in the economy. It’s a new disease that people currently don’t have no immunity to. In the short term, rapid testing has already been invented, and in the process of scaling up manufacturing. Once we have that, we can lift quarantine, open up the economy, and use rapid testing to pinpoint hotspots for response. Longer term, there is a well developed vaccine development process so it’s just a matter of time.

I agree that Disney vacation is discretionary. Many people’s lives will be disrupted, some in catastrophic ways. Prices will certainly drop. But this is not 2008 where It’s a systemic issue of people who can’t afford to buy houses stretching into them and get wiped out - in that situation people have to fire sell assets to try to keep their home. In this case, I think we are looking at a couple months of disruption in cash flow, and the US government is at the very least providing a 2 month cushion In cash flow. People’s monthly dues are already paid until 2021. If you need cash immediately, it will take two months to get the cash from a DVC sale even if it sells immediately. Therefore I think prices will drop but I don’t think there will be a fire sale.

 

[Perelandra]

I appreciate the response. I would feel much better if there were a set date to re-open the economy. Just printing money from the fed and giving it out has major consequences too. There is a major tax revenue loss right now, and bailing everyone out from an entity that cannot actually produce anything on its own is problematic. Hopefully everything will get back to normal soon.

 

[Deploraboo]

How is it not a “structural issue” with the economy that literally only two weeks of halving of economic activity has caused markets to crash 30%, major corporates to beg for cash, draw down on their corporate revolvers, lift guidance and cloak layoffs as “furloughs”.

I assure you, that represents a ‘structural’ economic issue.