WDW Should Not Open in July. Discuss.

[roomthreeseventeen]

Florida accounted for over 25% of new cases in the United States on July 4.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Another 10,000 cases in Florida. Hospitalizations are up with hospitals in South Florida beginning to reach capacity.

 

[bavaria]

I think about seniors in nursing homes/assisted living. And this is how they’ve spent their last 4 months. And if they die tomorrow? Not seeing their family. Or being outside. I don’t know. Breaks my heart.

I believe that when the UK went into lockdown, those being 'shielded' were told that if they had a doctor's note that they had six months left to live or less, they could be excused from the extra limits on those being 'shielded'. (As someone who would fall in to that category I really really cannot stand that term. I know that it indicates the rest of the public protecting people, but it irritates me to no end to read it)

I know someone who was just told rather unexpectedly that she has about three months left. She's about my age, even more active, with children, and managed to cross off about 85 things on her bucket list. I cannot imagine being in that situation ie wanting to but being unable to spend your last time that you are still physically able, unable to do the things you enjoy.

I've been thinking about that recently, and my decision would be to go to the places I can still travel, and do all I can in that short time that I could.

 

[bavaria]

You cannot compare infection rates, as not all countries perform the same % of testing.

I'm reposting this here because like Karin, I notice that many of you focus on 'positivity' rate, which is a factor of testing. It's like how in Germany there was a spike in R0, but anyone can be tested, and Bavaria is trying to test as many as possible even with no symptoms. So when they find a cluster like when they tested everyone at a food production facility, the R0 goes up. But that is a factor of low cases and high testing.

I know that many of you got a science degree apparently in the last few months, but here is something from the only poster I have trusted over the years in regards to this topic:

The thing is, you don't necessarily have to purposefully spin numbers to be misleading (though, of course, that does happen). Sometimes, people misinterpret numbers with the best of intentions:

• Using national/regional values that hide important sub-national/sub-regional differences (it is important to note that health care in Canada is a provincial matter - there is no such thing as the "Canadian health care system");
• Confusing mortality rate (deaths per 100.000 population) with the case-fatality rate (deaths per 100 diagnosed cases) with the infected-fatality rate (deaths per 100 actual infected people);
• Recently, on another thread, two people arguing that they had the correct values for the percentage of people with COVID-19 who required hospitalization. However, one of them was actually using the number of COVID related hospitalizations per 100,000 population (which, of course, is much lower);
• Comparing mortality rates (or CFR or IFR) without doing age standardization ;
• Comparting mortality rates (or CFR or IFR) without considering where countries are in terms of the progression of the disease;
• Comparting mortality rates (or CFR or IFR) without considering testing rates or how deaths are coded. An interesting point here is that I was doing some analysis and Belgium showed a CFR of something like 17%. When I spoke with people there about it, they pointed out that many countries are only counting deaths that occur in hospitals since many deaths in longterm care homes (where we know a lot of deaths are occurring) cannot be confirmed as being due to COVID (lack of testing); while, in Belgium, they are including deaths in LTC that are suspected of being due to COVID.

I'm sure that there are others, but those are off the top of my head. Personally, in my work (I'm looking at disruption of essential services), we are focussing on excess deaths (while, of course, also looking at things like the number of cases, number of deaths, CFR, type of transmission, etc - really on a single number is not a good idea).

 

[JM23457]

Which makes percent positive a good number to go by.

Yes, some European countries have a higher percent positive.

 

[SirDuff]

Which makes percent positive a good number to go by. Unless that number is high then you move to next number that looks good. That's how it works right.

Why? I do know of almost no comparative analysis that is going by percent positive. Within a country/region, it can be used to track the expansion of testing or as a possible explanation for increasing daily cases. The exact "not all countries perform the same % of testing" problem that you are quoting is a problem for use of percent positives as a comparison.

As I said in a post that Bavaria quoted, I tend to see excess deaths used most often (and, for reference, I'm an epidemiologist and part of my current work revolves around COVID). In high-income/OECD countries, almost all deaths are captured and recorded, making this metric about as imperviable to bias as possible. Now, not all excess deaths are directly due to COVID and, of course, it is an estimate, but, as I said, the least problematic in that way that we have.

 

[maryj11]

Here in Ohio people are running about taking no precautions. You will see a small percentage wearing masks. I knew cases would increase because they opened things up to early and people just don’t care. Now a lot of people are saying this virus thing is just a hoax.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

 

[greg9x]

At this point seems can only watch the situation play out... if hospitalizations and deaths get really bad, then people will self isolate without being ordered to do so. If they don't, then people will abandon all precautions and what will be, will be.
But think all this proves, that if a really deadly virus ever occurs we are doomed.

 

[dvcgirl67]

At this point seems can only watch the situation play out... if hospitalizations and deaths get really bad, then people will self isolate without being ordered to do so. If they don't, then people will abandon all precautions and what will be, will be.
But think all this proves, that if a really deadly virus ever occurs we are doomed.

This is always how this was going to play out. You can't just open up and barrel your way through this. People will stay home and your economy will suffer more than it would have if you'd simply shut it down for a couple of months. Florida is in trouble...big time.

 

[godisney14]

Here in Ohio people are running about taking no precautions. You will see a small percentage wearing masks. I knew cases would increase because they opened things up to early and people just don’t care. Now a lot of people are saying this virus thing is just a hoax.

I really don’t understand how there are still people who think this whole thing is a hoax or just a flu. Do they really think the entire world is just playing a joke on them on “fake” news? People are going to the hospital because theme parks are closed and there are those dying for giggles?

 

[disneychrista]

At this point seems can only watch the situation play out... if hospitalizations and deaths get really bad, then people will self isolate without being ordered to do so.

Things are bad NOW but there were still HUGE crowds in the tourist spots around my area this weekend. Those that care are taking precautions those that don't aren't.

 

[shh]

I really don’t understand how there are still people who think this whole thing is a hoax or just a flu. Do they really think the entire world is just playing a joke on them on “fake” news? People are going to the hospital because theme parks are closed and there are those dying for giggles?

There are people who were and still are convinced the holocaust was a "hoax" - even with 6 million dead bodies. I believe these are many of the same people touting covid as a "hoax".

If they could dimiss a massacre like that as fake, why wouldn't they believe this? It's truly amazing how many evil and mentally ill folks masquerade as normal people by day.

The difference now vs 1940s thru 2000 is today's visible platform social media platforms like FB and Twitter grant them to scream fake news unchallenged and spread the lies virally. Vetted professional journalists used to stop or counteract them...but our 4th estate is disappearing.

 

[maddiel]

Why? I do know of almost no comparative analysis that is going by percent positive. Within a country/region, it can be used to track the expansion of testing or as a possible explanation for increasing daily cases. The exact "not all countries perform the same % of testing" problem that you are quoting is a problem for use of percent positives as a comparison.

As I said in a post that Bavaria quoted, I tend to see excess deaths used most often (and, for reference, I'm an epidemiologist and part of my current work revolves around COVID). In high-income/OECD countries, almost all deaths are captured and recorded, making this metric about as imperviable to bias as possible. Now, not all excess deaths are directly due to COVID and, of course, it is an estimate, but, as I said, the least problematic in that way that we have.

The problem IMO is that in many places the root, absolute data (like the number of excess deaths) is either significantly delayed (either purposefully or not), obfuscated or only available filtered through a political lens (which renders the public incredible of it.)

M.

 

[Wiltony]

One thing I don't hear many talking about is that all this social distancing and lockdown activity was meant to flatten the curve, not stop the virus. Without a vaccine, we will almost all get it at some point, and as long as our healthcare system can handle the load of hospitalizations from the most severe cases (admittedly some places can't) then it seems we are at an acceptable level of infection rates. I'm not trying to be incensing or insensitive, I just always understood this to be the case. Your thoughts?

 

[Toad_Passenger]

One thing I don't hear many talking about is that all this social distancing and lockdown activity was meant to flatten the curve, not stop the virus. Without a vaccine, we will almost all get it at some point, and as long as our healthcare system can handle the load of hospitalizations from the most severe cases (admittedly some places can't) then it seems we are at an acceptable level of infection rates. I'm not trying to be incensing or insensitive, I just always understood this to be the case. Your thoughts?

You are correct that the intent was to flatten the curve, which we did. However that curve has now drastically unflattened itself in many locales, so measures have to be reinstated. The idea wasn't to flatten the curve and then let things ramp up again.

 

[disneychrista]

One thing I don't hear many talking about is that all this social distancing and lockdown activity was meant to flatten the curve, not stop the virus.

I also hear people say "we did that" but did we? If we really have flattened the curve why is the curve in an upward direction?

 

[Jrb1979]

One thing I don't hear many talking about is that all this social distancing and lockdown activity was meant to flatten the curve, not stop the virus. Without a vaccine, we will almost all get it at some point, and as long as our healthcare system can handle the load of hospitalizations from the most severe cases (admittedly some places can't) then it seems we are at an acceptable level of infection rates. I'm not trying to be incensing or insensitive, I just always understood this to be the case. Your thoughts?

The plan was supposed to continue with social distancing with slowly opening businesses. It was never the plan to just throw open the doors wide open once the curve was flattened. Wasn't the original plan was to have 2 weeks of declining numbers for each phase. Apparently many states didn't get the memo

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Without a vaccine, we will almost all get it at some point, and as long as our healthcare system can handle the load of hospitalizations from the most severe cases (admittedly some places can't) then it seems we are at an acceptable level of infection rates. I'm not trying to be incensing or insensitive, I just always understood this to be the case. Your thoughts?

Since we know a lot more about the virus now, it's clear that herd immunity is not the goal. This is a very deadly virus that causes longterm suffering. "We're all going to get it" is not the goal.

 

[TamaraQT]

DISCLAIMER: The following is MY OPINION. Even if you don't agree, respect my right to voice it as I respect yours.

I think ALL theme parks and entertainment venues should have remained closed for the rest of the year. I think this spike of cases has been proven to be traced back to large social gatherings without precautions being taken. People in Florida and other areas were not practicing social distancing for Memorial Day weekend and those places have high numbers and spikes. And now that summer has arrived, people are having a hard time social distancing and wearing masks in this heat. And its common sense that we cannot eat with a mask on, so even outside dining can be risky. Also, financially there are businesses in 'desperation' mode trying to stay afloat. I get it and I feel bad about businesses being affected by all of this. Especially the hospitality and entertainment industries. But it truly is not safe. The heat of summer isn't killing the virus and neither did the cold of winter. Little kids don't know how to 'constantly' be aware of social distancing and how germs travel either. I was in the ladies room of a grocery store the other day. A woman brought her young daughter (4-5 y.o) into the bathroom and told her to hop up on the seat. Now there were NO seat protectors or anything. You could tell she didn't make a barrier with toilet tissue either because there was not enough time for her to do it. Afterwards, she BARELY washed the little girls hands. She just had her rinse them off without soap and for less than 10 seconds. Barely 5 seconds. I just stood there in shock. Whose fault was it? Not the little girls fault at all. But the mothers. AND the little girl was walking around in the bathroom BAREFOOT!!!! Not even socks on!!!! Her shoes were in the shopping cart. So whatever germs and bacteria are on her feet, she is carrying all over the place, including her home. Now with that story in mind, do you really want to get on rides behind adults who really have no concern or awareness of how germs/contamination spread? Just think of your past vacations and what you have witnessed before COVID. No thanks, ALL theme parks should remain closed until a vaccine, effective treatment or cure is found that prevents consequences resulting in the loss of life. I think its sad that we will miss out on so much, but think about the people who are no longer here to look forward to anything. Now we know of ways we can decrease the risk of contamination so at least out of respect of their memory we should try to prevent as much loss of life as possible. May God bless and rest their souls. I miss the entertainment stuff too but I think we should be SAFE than SORRY. Disney should NOT open until next year and neither should anywhere else.

AGAIN: This is JUST MY OPINION.