ROFR Thread April to June 2022 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

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gskywalker said:
Not related other than we have to cancel a trip and hope DVC will return our points to the original use year but I have to tell my DVC ROFR people....my daughter had her make a wish trip(disney cruise) scheduled for December 2020, which of course was cancelled. They told us about 6 months ago Make a Wish Canada would not be allowing cruises for at least 2 years, which is too late for our daughter who turns 18 this year. They also weren't allowing any travel outside of Canada for all of 2021 and 2022 and she would lose her wish if she didn't use it by the time she turned 18.

We have been going back and forth of what she could do as she is special needs, ie very different interests than a regular kid. She pretty much just cares about wanting friends(being special needs all she has one friend in Florida and one friend from her class here in Toronto) and Disney. So no point getting a camping trailer, a room makeover, shopping spree, etc that so many kids did because travel wasn't allowed. We asked if a support animal was allowed, we were told no. So long story made long(sorry had to share details to build it up like it was for us) they just wrote us to tell us they are allowing US travel starting in July. Ie her second choice after the cruise was Disneyland and that will be allowed!!!!!!! No idea how its going to work in the next 5 months till she turns 18, nor how we are going to get the time off when we already booked all of our vacation plus a week unpaid. But who carrrrrres, she (and the family) can go to disneyland!!!!!!!!!!!!! where none of us have ever been.
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Am so happy for you guys! You’ll love Disneyland!
 
CaptainAmerica said:
I sold at the top of the market to finance an Aulani purchase (pending the sale of the contracts I'm replacing) and then the whole market threw up on its shoes. I've avoided about $10,000 in market losses.

Follow me for more investing advice.
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Just give me a heads up the day before the bottom so I can rebalance my 401K and I'll be happy.
 
Epcot Forever Forever said:
The market has definitely changed. I mean my goodness look at Riviera resale prices all of the sudden. Quite a few resorts have contracts - with available to use points! - at the lowest prices I’ve seen in 2 years.

Edited to add that I don’t think whether or not the economy tanks is relevant to DVC prices because they were so overheated to begin with. If the economy does tank, obviously prices will drop more, but the simple combination of people being able to use their disposable income for activities instead of durable goods and investments, the end of free money from the government, and inflation* will eat at DVC prices plenty.

*inflation lowers the price of luxury goods because it drops available disposable cash
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It effects Disney's buybacks though. If Disney can't sell direct they aren't going to buy up the resale contracts much at all.
 
redboat45 said:
It effects Disney's buybacks though. If Disney can't sell direct they aren't going to buy up the resale contracts much at all.
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You have cause and effect backwards.

Disney doesn't buy back sold out resorts to sell sold out resorts direct, they buy back sold out resorts to inflate their resale price and make direct prices at RIV/VGF/AUL more attractive by comparison. Turning around and selling them at a tiny markup isn't worth their time.
 
Sadly I just found out that DVC exists about 4 to 6 months ago. With recent changes in my career I likely can afford VGC more now at 260 than 220 a year ago so not a huge deal. I’m long on all my investments and am doing all my spreadsheet value analysis at 20 years out and it seems like a win at 290 to 300 a point. Any lower = more cash to save for trips (tickets and food). :)
 
NVDISFamily said:
VGC for mid to low 260s is my target. I see lots of contracts sitting on the market for many weeks/months and some starting to lower their price. Got one, going to start hunting for another soon :)
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I saw some VGC on Fidelty with an asking price of $270. You might be able to get them into the $260s. If I hadn't just bought my VGC contract, I would be trying for one of these! I guess timing is everything.
 
NVDISFamily said:
Sadly I just found out that DVC exists about 4 to 6 months ago. With recent changes in my career I likely can afford VGC more now at 260 than 220 a year ago so not a huge deal. I’m long on all my investments and am doing all my spreadsheet value analysis at 20 years out and it seems like a win at 290 to 300 a point. Any lower = more cash to save for trips (tickets and food). :)
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I’m not going to pretend to be a financial genius. I got lucky. I was finally ready to buy DVC early last year right before the big resale run up. It’s almost impossible to time the market but I think it’s pretty evident that the resale market is on the verge of a correction. With the upcoming sales of the new Disneyland hotel DVC, I wouldn’t be surprised if VGC resale prices go down to the $240-250’s in the next few months.
 
HIRyeDVC said:
I wouldn’t be surprised if VGC resale prices go down to the $240-250’s in the next few months.
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I agree. I have been expecting a correction on VGC but it's never going to be competitive with VDH. Funny thing is because the Aussie dollar has tanked, even if the price of VGC drops I'd be paying the same amount anyway. So ... yay?
 
CaptainAmerica said:
You have cause and effect backwards.

Disney doesn't buy back sold out resorts to sell sold out resorts direct, they buy back sold out resorts to inflate their resale price and make direct prices at RIV/VGF/AUL more attractive by comparison. Turning around and selling them at a tiny markup isn't worth their time.
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No I think you have it backwards. They’re not gonna buy contracts they can’t sell because then they’ll be stuck with them on their books, and with 2000 contracts on the market, they’d need to buy a LOT to set an effective floor.
 
Epcot Forever Forever said:
No I think you have it backwards. They’re not gonna buy contracts they can’t sell because then they’ll be stuck with them on their books...
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They're not stuck with anything. They're more than happy to run these when they have a glut.

November:

Screenshot_20220513-184906.png

February:

Screenshot_20220513-184939.png
Epcot Forever Forever said:
...and with 2000 contracts on the market, they’d need to buy a LOT to set an effective floor.
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1. They are. Over 40% of contracts at some resorts are getting bought back. That's a lot.

2. They don't need to set a hard floor. They don't need to buy every single $135 SSR that comes up, because the knowledge that a $135 SSR MIGHT get taken is enough to influence buyers and sellers. It's not a math problem, it's a psychology problem.
 

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