ROFR Thread April to June 2022 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Ginamarie]

The problem is it’s a buyers market yes- but Disney is taking any good offers. So yes, I’m seeing OKW listings at $110 but you aren’t going to get it if you put it through. I’m seeing contracts $10-20 below what I just paid but I know they aren’t getting through. Heck mine probably won’t. We will see

Agreed.
The kicker is that SOME will get through, because they can’t buy them all. If enough people start buying at the lower price level, some of those will make it through.
But.. there aren’t enough people who want to tie up their money on long shots. For me, I’m only attempting if it’s the perfect contract for what I’m looking for.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I was thinking about lowballing a September OKW.
(But I don't want to inadvertently get one in a freak longshot unless it's a great price lol)

That's why I'm only making freak longshot offers.

 

[Ginamarie]

And just as I say this- I see BLT listed at $150/point in my use year.
So tempting.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

But.. there aren’t enough people who want to tie up their money on long shots.

The ROFRvengers got this.

Stargazer has OKW September.

I've got OKW and AUL December.

Whatchu got?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The ROFRvengers got this.

Stargazer has OKW September.

I've got OKW and AUL December.

Whatchu got?

View attachment 669133

Sign me up Cap! BCV, March UY, $100pp! Assemble!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Sign me up Cap! BCV, March UY, $100pp! Assemble!

Beach Club isn't invited. Your feet are all sandy and your clothes smell of seafood buffet.

 

[HappyThoughtsTees]

The ROFRvengers got this.

Stargazer has OKW September.

I've got OKW and AUL December.

Whatchu got?

View attachment 669133

AUL & VGC. June.
Bring it on.

 

[SeasonneRose]

Captain America has lured me here. I’m seeking help for this addonitis addiction. But I suspect there’s no help here - just enablers.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Captain America has lured me here. I’m seeking help for this addonitis addiction. But I suspect there’s no help here - just enablers.

We're all in weird limbo right now. Inventory and price are both inflated. So we're not seeing much movement, either in terms of contracts getting signed or ROFR decisions coming back from Disney. We've had weeks where everything seems to get through, weeks described as "bloodbaths," and weeks that have been crickets. We're on a crickets stretch.

What should happen next is that sellers get spooked by stagnant inventory, listing prices start coming down, the leading edge contracts in the race to the bottom get taken in ROFR, we see a brief period of bloodbath, and eventually Disney starts letting a few things get through that wouldn't under current conditions.

 

[SeasonneRose]

We're all in weird limbo right now. Inventory and price are both inflated. So we're not seeing much movement, either in terms of contracts getting signed or ROFR decisions coming back from Disney. We've had weeks where everything seems to get through, weeks described as "bloodbaths," and weeks that have been crickets. We're on a crickets stretch.

What should happen next is that sellers get spooked by stagnant inventory, listing prices start coming down, the leading edge contracts in the race to the bottom get taken in ROFR, we see a brief period of bloodbath, and eventually Disney starts letting a few things get through that wouldn't under current conditions.

That’s disheartening. I would think that if a seller wants to sell they are motivated to accept offers knowing they can’t lose either way - rofr or the buyer?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That’s disheartening. I would think that if a seller wants to sell they are motivated to accept offers knowing they can’t lose either way - rofr or the buyer?

Most buyers aren't going to submit that lowball offer in the first place. I want OKW at $95, even though I know it won't pass. I'm willing to make the offer and hope that lightning strikes, but most buyers just won't bother. So even when I DO offer, the sellers are content waiting for an OKW buyer who really wants to get past ROFR and will pay $125 to do it. The problem is, there just aren't many of them.

 

[Sandisw]

That’s disheartening. I would think that if a seller wants to sell they are motivated to accept offers knowing they can’t lose either way - rofr or the buyer?

That was me in March when I sold SSR for $120. I knew it wouldn't make it through ROFR, but as the seller, I didn't care because I win either way...I just need Disney to get moving on getting it closed...still waiting for paperwork!

 

[NVDISFamily]

AUL & VGC. June.
Bring it on.

VGC at 250?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

We're all in weird limbo right now. Inventory and price are both inflated. So we're not seeing much movement, either in terms of contracts getting signed or ROFR decisions coming back from Disney. We've had weeks where everything seems to get through, weeks described as "bloodbaths," and weeks that have been crickets. We're on a crickets stretch.

What should happen next is that sellers get spooked by stagnant inventory, listing prices start coming down, the leading edge contracts in the race to the bottom get taken in ROFR, we see a brief period of bloodbath, and eventually Disney starts letting a few things get through that wouldn't under current conditions.

I think the problem is further added by a lack of buyers? I don’t think we can assume that there are an endless supply of potential buyers out there. And the sellers now haveto compete even more with Disney and all of the new properties currently selling or coming soon. The market is flooded with new inventory, resale and direct. And now we might be heading toward a recession. The next couple of years will be very interesting for the DVC economy.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think the problem is further added by a lack of buyers? I don’t think we can assume that there are an endless supply of potential buyers out there. And the sellers now haveto compete even more with Disney and all of the new properties currently selling or coming soon. The market is flooded with new inventory, resale and direct. And now we might be heading toward a recession. The next couple of years will be very interesting for the DVC economy.

Are there no buyers period? Or are there no buyers at SSR $140?

I just had an email exchange that has led me to believe that sellers are either insane or they're being led to insanity by insane agents. When Contract A has been sitting unsold for LITERALLY MONTHS, why would you think to list extremely similar Contract B for a higher price and then act all insulted that I dare offer before ROFR? Sit on it until September, it's no skin off my nose.

 

[DKZB]

FYI for anyone who is selling.

On the last SSR contract I sold I rolled the estimated closing costs and dues reimbursement into the sale price.

Disney still took it in ROFR but it seems on the settlement statement that Disney’s closing costs are much less.

I still wish they buyer would have gotten the contract but I’m making a few more $$ under ROFR. Just a heads up for those who are selling.

 

[SeasonneRose]

I have a use year question: what factors would make you buy a different use year from your existing contract?

I go pretty much year round and have a February use year. But there are some attractive options for September or other fall dates and wondering what the pros and cons would be to that? I typically do a girls trip in October so it seems September wouldn’t be awful.

 

[OKWFan88]

I am a seller and had a Sept UY OKW-E 150 pts that sat for three months. Received several offers but they were super low ball offers, meaning in the 100's. I originally listed at 145. Ended up getting an offer at 135pt and took that. Pending ROFR - at 30 days as of today. I honestly didn't think it would sell so was happy with what was agreed upon.

 

[NVDISFamily]

I've had conversations with a few listing agents and they get real ............. uncomfortable (nicest way I can say that) when I say that I see downward pressure on VGC prices to the low/mid 260s. If the community has any luck getting the prices in the 250s I would be very grateful. Due to timing I want to wait to buy our next 200 to 300 points (going to be about 4 to 6 weeks). I feel good about my first purchase at 255, but lower is better!

As a side note, I hope you are okay with my new signature CaptainAmerica. If not just yell at me and I'll change it

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I have a use year question: what factors would make you buy a different use year from your existing contract?

I go pretty much year round and have a February use year. But there are some attractive options for September or other fall dates and wondering what the pros and cons would be to that? I typically do a girls trip in October so it seems September wouldn’t be awful.

I personally don’t like to have multiple UYs but I ended up buying VGC with a June UY, different from the rest of my contracts that are March, only because at the time, a VGC listing was like finding a gem. But now, I actually prefer a June UY over my March because it aligns better with our travel habits.